Wednesday, December 30, 2009
It's amazing how Kay Bailey's campaign could so trenchantly encapsulate everything that is wrong with her campaign.
Burka, if anything, is an ally of Hutchison. At this point, though we know Burka thinks KBH has run a ridonkulously bad campaign, I think we have every indication that Burka still plans to vote in the GOP primary, in large part to vote for Hutchison.
If Perry's camp had made this request, they'd be laughed at and accused of threatening the press. KBH's camp will get more of a pass, but it encapsulates everything wrong with her campaign: she has taken people naturally inclined to be allies and given them reason not to support her.
Looks like a good blog to watch for 2010...
Former Kay staffer Matt Mackowiak made a tweet today that got me remembering something (link). His tweet...
Wait, why did Rick Perry fire Mike Leach??
But a pattern of abuse like what Kansas head football coach Mark Mangino is alleged to be guilty of? There is no evidence at all for it. Not only have many of Leach’s former players already come forward to defend him, but testimonials popping up on the Internet are running roughly 100 to 1 in favor of Leach and against his bosses, Texas Tech’s athletic director Gerald Myers and Tech Chancellor Kent Hance. (This estimate is, of course, highly unscientific.)
New email from RGA: "$ we raise will go dir 2 supp our conservative, Repub candidates like McDonnell,Jindal and Rick Perry."RGA's Barbour suppts #Perry, but has said RGA will remain neutral. This email was from Exec Dir, Nick Ayers. Will follow up...
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
To: Perry Campaign Leaders
From: Rob Johnson, Campaign Manager
Date: December 28, 2009
RE: Campaign Update
With the new year upon us and early voting just 49 days from today, I wanted to take the opportunity to thank you for all your hard work and update you on the status of our positive campaign that is gaining more and more momentum every day.
Our positive message is really resonating among all voters in Texas. Through proven and conservative leadership, Governor Perry has always put the people of Texas first. His efforts to embrace fiscal discipline, create jobs for Texans, improve education, secure our border and take a stand against burdensome Washington policies have helped make Texas a successful model of good governance for the rest of the nation to follow.
As the national and global economies struggle to recover from their financial woes, Texas is displaying strength that is built on conservative fiscal discipline embraced by Governor Perry. Back in 2003, we clawed our way out of a $10 billion budget hole by making tough choices to effectively prioritize and cut spending. Six years later, under Governor Perry’s leadership, our state now has billions of dollars in our state’s Rainy Day Fund and our state budget is balanced. Contrast this with the bloated federal government and its culture of deficits, debt and bailouts and I think it is clear that the Texas way is far more effective that the Washington model that has strapped our nation with a $13 trillion deficit.
Because of Governor Perry’s proven and strong leadership, our campaign is hitting on all cylinders. We have more new donors than ever, more volunteers and part time employees than any campaign in Texas history and our endorsements, which are growing everyday, substantially outnumber our opponent’s.
The breadth and depth of our support is growing every day. This fact is evidenced by a recent, confidential internal poll conducted by Baselice & Associates, Inc. Knowing that you are an integral part of this campaign, we wanted to share a brief internal memo that Baselice shared with our campaign (SEE ATTACHED MEMO). It is important to point out that this poll was taken after our opponent spent millions of dollars on television advertising for her campaign. Our opponent’s message has clearly not gained traction or excited Republican primary voters. In fact, it is quite the opposite as you will see in Baselice’s memo.
Going into the new year with a 13 point lead puts our campaign in a strong position toward victory on March 2, 2010. This is great news but we cannot rest on this lead. Governor Perry will continue to aggressively campaign around the state spreading his positive vision for our state. We should also expect that our opponent’s desperate campaign will turn even more negative with a massive onslaught of negativity in the coming weeks. We, as a team, need to stand strong and defend Governor Perry’s positive and impressive record of putting Texas first and creating a successful model for the rest of the nation to follow.
Again, thanks for all that you do to support Governor Perry and your tireless efforts during this campaign. Happy New Year !
Political advertising paid for by Texans for Rick Perry, PMB 217, P.O. Box 2013, Austin, Tx. Dr. Richard A. Box, Treasurer.
The attachment is from Rick's pollster...
TEXAS GOP PRIMARY VOTER SURVEY CONFIDENTIAL
Opinion Research for Decision Making
in Politics and Public Affairs
4131 Spicewood Springs Road Office: 512-345-9720
Suite O-2 Fax: 512-345-9740
Austin, TX 78759 email: firstname.lastname@example.org
TO: Texans for Rick Perry
FR: Mike Baselice
RE: Statewide Survey of Republican Primary Voters
Below are a few results froma telephone survey of N=609 randomly selected Republican primary
voters in Texas that we conducted December 19-21, 2009. The margin of error to the results of
this survey is +/- 4.1% at the .95 test level. I am in town all week to discuss in more detail.
Just as we observed in our survey conducted a few months ago, Rick Perry holds a double-digit
lead over challenger Kay Bailey Hutchison.
If the Republican primary election for Governor of Texas was held today, and you had to make a
choice, for which one of the following candidates would you vote? (Randomize choices)
49% Rick Perry
36% Kay Bailey Hutchison
5% Debra Medina
1% Other names (volunteered)
10% Undecided / refused (volunteered)
Since Hutchison spent nearly three million dollars on media in the last four weeks, and the Perry
spent about one million dollars, it is not unexpected for there to be more recall of Hutchison’s ads
than Perry’s ads. However, the expenditures by Hutchison have not generated the results her
campaign intended as Perry leads Hutchison by 54% to 36% among those respondents who can
recall television ads about both candidates. Moreover, Perry even leadsHutchison by 46%to 40%
among those respondents who recall television ads only about Hutchison.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Interestingly, he notes that "never before has a U.S. senator gone home to take on his or her own party's governor in a primary. As it is, the list of senators elected governor is small; just five have made the move in the past half-century or so: Price Daniel (D-TX) in 1956, Pete Wilson (R-CA) in 1990, Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID) in 1998, Frank Murkowski (R-AK) in 2002, and Jon Corzine (D-NJ) in 2005. But none challenged an incumbent to do so, in a primary or in the general."
If you're a mom whose job is U.S. senator from Texas (not to mention the candidate hoping to unseat GOP Gov. Rick Perry) -- and there's a big health care vote coming up, unfriendly-to-flight DC weather threatening and Christmas looming -- what's your schedule like?
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign provided this taste:
- Speak on Senate floor, 7:20 a.m. vote followed by press conference.
- All outbound flights are canceled from DC-area airports. Book a flight from New York to Dallas-Fort Worth with a 7:29 p.m. departure
- Take the train to Penn Station (the scheduled 2-hour, 57-minute train trip turns into a 4-hour, 30-minute trip). Grab a cab to La Guardia.
- Sit an hour on the tarmac
- Land at D-FW at 10:30 p.m. Go home.
- Two 8-year-olds in tow, board 10:15 a.m. flight to DC
- Sit on runway until 12:30 p.m.
- Land in DC, sit on tarmac with children for three hours until about 7:30 p.m.
- Drop children off with friends, rush to Senate floor.
Political campaigns are notoriously prickly, and both the Hutchison and Rick Perry camps have demonstrated thin skin in advance of next March's GOP primary. Truth be told, campaigns always try to negotiate details -- including members of the panel, if they can get away with it -- in advance of agreeing to debates. In this case, KERA says its policy is that opinion writers don't quality and Burka is an opinion writer. Hutchison campaign manager Terry Sullivan says he didn't want Burka on the panel. In the magazine and on his blog, Burka has taken aim at Hutchison's struggling campaign -- but he's also been critical of Perry.
The Dallas Morning News and WFAA are among the sponsors of another debate in January. No such problem there, at this point. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
The tea party peeps have been fairly quiet, but they came out to protest Kay this week after her ill advised vote (link). Excerpt follows...
A hodgepodge group of about a dozen people gathered outside Kay Bailey Hutchison's Austin office Monday to protest a procedural vote by the U.S. senator that they say helped expedite the disputed health care bill.
Hutchison, who is running for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in March, has come under fire from Gov. Rick Perry's campaign since the Friday vote, related to a defense spending bill. Senate Republican leaders had organized a filibuster on an item that included nearly $130 billion for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. They had hoped to use the filibuster on that bill to delay talks on the health care bill until 2010.
Democrats have been attempting to push through health care votes in the middle of the night because they know they cannot afford to let the debate linger past Christmas. To counter this, GOP Senate Leadership has begun a strategy to filibuster votes or have amendments read aloud, in order to delay.
One such filibuster was supposed to be of the massive Pentagon bill being voted on after midnight Friday. The Washington Post wrote, “Democrats emerged from a huddle confident that they would muster the 60 votes needed to thwart the GOP effort at blocking the military spending bill … in order to keep the chamber on a timeline of holding a final health-care vote before Christmas.”
All was a go with the GOP Senate strategy until three Senators — who are known not to be the most conservative members of the caucus — broke their promise and voted with the Democrats to end the filibuster: Olympia Snow and Susan Collins of Maine and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas. Their votes effectively shut off debate and forced a final vote the next day, which, in turn, accelerated the process of bringing health care to the floor.
As if the vote wasn’t bad enough, Senator Hutchison’s evolving reasons for doing so have caused a firestorm in Texas from which she may not be able to recover.
RINO Kay Bailey Hutchison helped Harry Reid expedite health care bill to its passage
MIDNIGHT VOTE IN WASHINGTON: Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison continues to hide the truth from the American people regarding her decision to vote with 60 Democrats and Maine Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe to end a Republican filibuster to delay the passage of health care legislation. On Dec. 19, during an appearance on Fox News, Sen. Hutchison said, “By the time I got to the floor, they had the 60 votes.” SOURCE: 2:32 mark of interview available online at:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYMqE_IZMdk&feature=pl…
The facts say otherwise. C-SPAN footage of the vote to end the filibuster clearly shows that when Sen. Hutchison arrived on the Senate floor, the outcome of the vote was still in doubt, and the 60-vote threshold had not yet been reached. (See detailed timeline below; complete footage of vote is available at www.WashingtonKay.com.)
Senator Hutchison is clearly misrepresenting the facts and trying desperately to cover up her decision to side with every Democrat in accelerating the passage of health care legislation, said Texans for Rick Perry spokesman Mark Miner. After promising to fight health care, Senator Hutchison abandoned Republicans and stood with Democrats to ensure health care legislation would pass quickly.
So how did these statesmen of conservatism represent my state in the dark night of legislation?Cornyn did not vote. Of 100 individuals in the Senate, only 2% opted out of this vote, with my senator representing half of this.Hutchison, she went one step farther. Rather then attempting to mount a filibuster, rather then trying to fight for one more day in the hallowed halls of legislation that the senate resides in for the liberty of my people, rather then standing for what is right, Hutchison votes to end discussion. She votes to pass the bill. She votes to bring this nation to its knees in the coming decades by taking a meat cleaver to the ankles of a once mighty economy.
WASHINGTON - Tea Party groups in Dallas, Austin and Houston are rallying today at the offices of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to protest her breaking ranks with a GOP filibuster aimed at stalling the Democrats’ health care bill.
"We want to let her know that we are not happy," said Dallas Tea Party leader Phillip Dennis. "If we can’t trust her to fulfill her promises as a senator, how can we trust her as governor?"
In 2002, 65 percent of children were immunized, but that reached 77 percent last year, with much of the growth occurring after Perry signed an executive order prompting the state health agency to improve.
Two of the other areas Perry has stressed in health care achievements were the $250,000 cap placed on medical malpractice lawsuits, making it impractical for lawyers to pursue most lawsuits against doctors.
This achievement was one of the primary reasons cited by the political arm of the Texas Medical Association when it endorsed Perry's re-election last month.
Perry has cited the lawsuit caps as a national model, pointing to the 27 percent cut in malpractice premiums that doctors pay and the 57 percent increase in doctors applying for a Texas medical license.
The article is filled with liberal attacks against Rick. Compare that to Kay's article, which informed readers about how she has been for growing the government's role in healthcare but only inconsistently...
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Tea Party movement – a national, loose affiliation of conservatives who gained notice over the summer for well-attended rallies and attacks on moderate Republicans – is led in part by Dick Armey, a former Dallas-area congressman who served as House Majority leader in the 1990s.
Armey has endorsed Hutchison’s bid for governor and there is no indication he is behind the rallies in Texas.
He told reporters in a conference call Monday morning that "grassroots activists in America are intending to remember very clearly who made what votes," and to punish offending politicians in next year’s elections – though he was referring to Democrats such as Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska who provided critical votes as the Senate bill moves toward finalization.
"We obviously are frustrated and disappointed," Armey said.
I think what this also shows is that Dick Armey really has very little to do with the tea party movement. He jumped on the movement to boost his group's standing, but he is not the patron of the tea party movement... nor is the tea party movement beholden what he says... If he had any power over the tea party activists Armey would have called off these dogs from attacking his buddy Kay...
Another interesting feature of these rallies is that the tea party groups seemed to come to this conclusion all on their own, it was not necessarily any of Rick's press releases or videos that prompted them to rally...
The final interesting anecdote is that the Texas Democratic Party leader Boyd Richie is sticking up for Kay...
Texas Democrats offered a partial defense of Hutchison on Monday, arguing that the filibuster of an unrelated, must-pass defense bill was irresponsible and calling Perry "cowardly" for supporting the tactic.
"Rick Perry owes American military men and women an apology for treating them as collateral to his gutless political campaign," said state Democratic Chairman Boyd Richie. "Perry's statement in support of blocking the defense spending bill is Republican primary rhetoric at its worst."
Does this mean they want to face Kay in the primary because they know she is so much weaker than Rick as a candidate? That is not the "common wisdom" that sez that the Democrats want Rick over Kay, but I have had conversations with some Democrats who believe Kay's strengths would be diminished by Bill White while Rick would have a whole different set of people and could win with just his conservative base alone.
Why else would the Democrats take up for Kay in this situation? I guess the other explanation might be that they think defending Kay might actually hurt her... does that make sense?
As elections kick into high gear in the new year, is there a chance for civility to prevail, especially between Perry and U.S. Sen Kay Bailey Hutchison, whose backers paint it as a race between “Slick Rick” and “Kay Bailout”?
“There's always room for civility. People also want candidates and elected officials who are passionate about their ideas,” said Perry spokesman Mark Miner. “The governor has been very cordial to the senator.”
Hutchison spokesman Jennifer Baker said her candidate will focus on issues and referred to campaign-trail hijinks: “If Rick Perry wants to continue to attack Kay Bailey Hutchison and harass her with childish antics that employ the use of farm animals and planes, he's going to have to deal with the backlash from voters.”
And what of Leach's reference to Perry? “He doesn't have his facts right,” Miner said. “He's a candidate who lost his office and is now in the back of a bus being driven around the country.”
Civility. Is there a chance? Well, it is the season for miracles.
Former Hutchison staffer Matt Mackowiak has been the staunches of her loyalists, so I wondered if he got any blowback when he called her “somewhat needy and demanding” in the New York Times. His response, “The short answer is no. The senator knows I am extremely supportive and feel tremendous loyalty to her.” Mackowiak said his full quote was, “She can be somewhat needy and demanding but she works harder than anyone else and she never asks anyone to do anything that she won't do herself.”
Despite her sudden intense interest in the debate raging in Washington, Hutchison doesn't have a long record to point to on health care. She was active on the biggest health care debates of her time in the Senate, but no signature legislation on the topic bears her name. She wins credit from some for behind-the-scenes battling for Texas interests, but that can be hard for voters to appreciate.
Critics accuse her of grandstanding. And her role carries some risk. As of last summer, she had promised to quit the Senate by now to focus on unseating Gov. Rick Perry next year. So now that she has stayed in Washington expressly to battle the Democratic plan, she might come off as ineffectual if it passes.
"I certainly couldn't walk out on health care, because it affects so many Texans," she told a San Antonio radio station this month when she put her resignation on hold. "I just had to make the decision – very tough one for me – to stay and fight health care as long as I have breath."
Hutchison is gambling that either way, GOP voters in the March gubernatorial primary will reward her for resisting what they view as a government takeover of health care. To that end, Hutchison has made a flurry of floor speeches in recent weeks, a half-dozen impassioned arguments to slow down and think again.
The exposure – she's turned up often on cable networks, calling the bill a "monstrosity" – easily eclipses anything she's done previously on health care. But advocacy isn't the same as achievement.
The unceremonious defeat of her motion to send the bill back to committee drew scoffs from Perry, whose aides dusted off her recent boasts that she would "call in every favor, twist every arm" and "lead the fight."
"The senator has had zero influence in the health care debate," said Perry spokesman Mark Miner. "The only thing she's fighting to do is get in front of the cameras."
For me it is not whether she has passed a bunch of bills or been a "leader" on anything.... sometimes doing nothing is better than "doing something." Instead I care about whether she has supported the incremental growth of government health care or if she has done anything to stem that growth and support freedom based alternative measures instead. More from that article...
But for some conservatives, some of her positions show she's in the big-government camp herself. They cite her support for the state Children's Health Insurance Program and for a Medicare prescription drug benefit.
CHIP, which covers children in families with income too high to qualify for Medicaid, was created in 1997 at an initial cost of $24 billion – a pittance compared with the $400 billion initial price tag attached to the Medicare expansion in 2003.
Kay has often broken with the GOP to support bigger government health care programs... while I can't blame her for voting with Bush on that Medicare prescription drug bill since that was a major initiative of Bush's first term and he actually campaigned on it in 2000, but she has voted probably dozens of times... someone check my numbers... to grow CHIP from a poverty safety net for kids into a "public option" style middle class entitlement that is crowding out private insurance for kids for people making good money...
Kay probably lost my vote when she criticized Rick for rejecting federal unemployment dollars with mandates attached. That was never such a major public issue firing up the grassroots. This health care thing is. She is probably losing a lot of votes this weekend due to her misguided health care vote. What was she thinking? Who was with her there in Washington telling her to do that? I really want to know, because they should never work in GOP politics ever again after this is said and done. I know I want to avoid working with the people advising her on that decision... they should go work for Arlen Specter or someone like that, not a Texas Republican senator.
That is how poor this decision was... it was not THE nail in her political coffin, but it was A nail, and a big one at that. Whatever grief she is getting right now from the grassroots she 100% brought on her self.