Sunday, February 28, 2010

The prebituaries for Kay are flowing like the Rio Grande...

Mike Hailey of Capitol Inside puts it pretty well...

While some Hutchison fans like Houston beer distributor John Nau, a former Perry supporter, didn't appear quite ready to throw in the towel as he picked up the tab for $10,000 worth of campaign air travel this week, the candidate herself was spending time that was running out on her talking about how she might stay in the U.S. Senate several months longer than she's been saying she'd do and theorizing on what went wrong instead of scrambling to plug the holes in a sinking ship that she'd have a whole month to repair if she could force the incumbent into a runoff that still appears to be well within her reach.

Hutchison, who'd predicted at the outset of the race that Perry would go for the jugular, seemed to be expressing surprise this week as she acknowledged how the incumbent had torpedoed her campaign by effectively portraying her as a symbol of Washington politics that frustrated voters find more disgusting than ever. At a time when Apollo Creed would have been reminding Rocky about the eye of the tiger, Hutchison has displayed all the enthusiasm of a tired old dog that's ready to roll over and play dead in the past few days rather than showing the heart that it takes to hurl the Hail Mary like the one she referred to in an appearance last week with Roger Staubach, whose famous desperation heave was as much or more a product of sheer will and a never-say-die attitude than athletic talent and clever play calling.

The prebituaries are being written all over, and one of them... Patterico's Pontifications... points out that the official website of the House Press Gallery is still misspelling Kay's last name... insult to injury (link)...

Hutchinson (R), TX

That is just sad...

RedState has more prebituary (link). Excerpt follows...

But the reality is that Hutchison’s Washington-insider status does not resonate in Texas. She badly underestimated the backlash against her and all those associated with Washington spending and largesse, and as noted by a post by Chris Cilliza at The Fix titled, “What Happened to Kay Bailey Hutchison?”, she cannot even clearly explain why she’s running. And even the Senator herself admits that the stigma of being associated with Washington has negatively influenced voters.

The result is a lagging campaign, leaving her behind in the polls and with dwindling enthusiasm and support on the road.

Chris Cillizza wrote what may be the authoritative version of the prebituary (link). Excerpt follows...
* What's the "Why"?: From the start of her campaign, Hutchison struggled to explain -- in clear, concise language -- both why she was running and why voters should fire Perry.

[SNIP]

* A Panoply of Process: Reporters -- the Fix most of all -- love process stories. How much money candidates raise, what their television ads say, how they are doing in the polls etc. Voters could care less -- particularly in a political environment like this one where economic anxiety is running high. Given that reality, a number of party operatives expressed shock/amazement/befuddlement at Hutchison's relentless focus on process on the stump.

[SNIP]

* Mixed Messages: Hutchison spent a good deal of the campaign talking about education, high speed rail, ports and her desire to grow the Republican party. Perry talked exclusively about his record of job-creation in the state and his opposition to federal intrusion in state matters. It's not hard when you compare those two issue palettes to understand why Hutchison has fallen behind.

[SNIP]

* Perry's Political Skill: Even those who loathe Perry -- and there are many in that category -- acknowledge that he is a consummate politician. Perry effectively framed the race as a referendum not on his time in office but on Washington.

[SNIP]

* Environmental hazards: Hutchison simply picked an awful year -- from a political environment perspective -- to return to the Lone Star State. Republican voters were mad as hell at Washington's profligate spending while Hutchison had spent years as a member of the Appropriations Committee steering cash back to the state.
Kay looks like a lamb headed to slaughter right about now... there is not much she can do but hope and pray for Rick to get 49.999% or lower... and then prolong the pain...

Rick and Bill assume front runner status...

I wrote a blog recently about how liberal Democrat former mayor of Houston Bill White is already running against Rick (link). Bill White was also in the valley recently to discuss how much he doesn't like Rick (link). Excerpt follows...

Even though he's a Democrat running in a state where no Democrat has won a statewide race in 16 years, White is freer to attack Perry than Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, the incumbent governor's main GOP rival.

Much as Hutchison does, White jumped at the chance Thursday to scold Perry for alleged cronyism and promotion of toll roads in the now abandoned Trans-Texas Corridor proposal.

So... basically Bill White is going to run the same campaign against Rick that Kay did... only he has a D by his name... and more room to be defined by Rick's peeps... let me know how that works out for ya...

Rick's campaign strategist is glad to keep the fight going because it shows that Rick is basically the presumptive nominee... which means that people on the fence will go ahead and vote for him just to make sure the party avoids an expensive run off...

David Carney sent an email that got leaked by the Texas Tribune (link). It looks like I was blind copied not on accident as well on an email officially to his colleague at his consulting firm ... probably a lot of bloggers, journalists, and influence makers were included if I had to guess...
As we head into Tuesdays primary I thought I'd let you in on some of our thinking going into the home stretch.

The early vote turnout is up and we're excited about who has been voting. Most of the increase appears to be based on the continuing trend of voters taking advantage of the convenience of no line/plenty of parking voting that the early voting process allows rather then an increase total turnout. We're thinking turnout will be around a million to 1.1 million GOP voters, which is up 20% but not the blow it off the roof projections some hysterical analysis has implied.

We believe high turnout is good for us because all types of voters continue of to move in our direction. In fact as of Thursday the Governor leads in all sub groups including first time GOP primary voters and self identified liberals and moderate on social and fiscal issues. (Just don't tell any one that! :) )

While no one can predict what will happen on Tuesday, we believe there will not be a run off. Our voters are energized, solidly committed and growing in number every day. Neither of our opponents can say the same thing. It is funny that pundits are quick to point out that we are below 50% in public polls by a few points but gloss over the fact that our opponents together generally poll in the low 40s and dropping.

As the campaign as been progressing the Governors’ favorability ratings have actually improved while our opponents have slid into almost a 1:1 ratio. Not good for them.

Regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, the GOP nominee is well positioned for November. The voter frustration with the democrat party nationally has not escaped the attention of Texans. Mayor White is another in a long line of dream team mirages that the net roots of the left have fabricated. In this political environment no competitive state will elect a big city trial lawyer, anti gun, sanctuary city promoting, Clinton protégé DC politician, let alone a conservative state like Texas. While Mayor White has yet to been defined its inarguable the Texas voters have been exposed to well over $100 million in negative attack ads against Rick Perry. The voters of Texas know Rick Perry, warts and all, and he still leads Mayor White by double digits in most public polls . Voter registration, voter intensity and the issues matrix in 2010 make any democrat the longest of long shots to be competitive.

Three observations that this primary has reinforced:

1) Message matters! Both in content and delivery, process and inside jargon can never compete with a coherent message delivered by a credible candidate.

2) The research that we were the guinea pigs for in 2006 with Professors Green and Gerber of Yale, Daron Shaw of UT and Jim Gimpel of the University of Maryland on the effectiveness of various traditional methods of campaign communications has paid off. Mail and phones are ineffective, while personal contacts through social networks and personal appearances, as well as and paid media move voters.

3) Dr. Bob Stein the worlds leading researcher on the effects of earmarks, conclusions (short handed and with apologies’ to Dr. Stein: Earmarks do not enhance an incumbent’s electoral standing) are correct. Using his theories we built our campaign against earmarks prior to the 2009 explosion of the center right voters on the federal fiscal issues (tea party’s, etc.) which just enhanced the effectiveness of our efforts.

If you have other thoughts or observations please pass them along and I'd be glad to answer any questions that you might have.


Thanks for your time,

Dave
Bill White's campaign responded (link).

We are already in the general election here...

Say what you will about Kay's meager crowds...

A few shots of Kay in San Angelo show that her crowds continue to disappoint (link). Excerpt follows...
Say what you will about Kay's tiny crowds at her events, but she just knows television cameras are all that matters, and she fights right through it all as if she has people there...

Rick has substantially better crowds at his events (link)...

Rick's staff will write blogs that say that this reflects their hard work and that Kay's staff sucks and is not even from Texas... in your face and all of that... but the differences here are the candidates not the staff work... Rick is connecting with voters. Kay is not. Enthusiasm in primaries is what you as a candidate want to see during early voting and before the general election... Kay is not giving off enthusiasm, but she is not getting much from her crowds either... it is a bad cycle to be in. Rick is gaining energy from his crowds, but he is also giving them something to be excited about...

For her own good Kay has to be secretly hoping for no runoff...

Say what you will about Kay's meager crowds, but at least if you are there to see her you are pretty much guaranteed to have a one on one conversation, you can probably get a picture or three... and you may feel like she is tailoring the speech just for you...

If governor doesn't work out, there is always class president (link)...

Kay on April 15... "Rick just lost the race today"

Kay and her husband Ray Hutchison must be some of the worst political minds of our time... look at some of these quotes from them explaining just how Kay fell so fast so hard (link). Excerpt follows... quotes bolded...
Just days later, Perry went even further, saying he understood how frustrated Texans were with the federal government and how they might want to secede from the union. His rival, Kay Bailey Hutchison, saw that as a decisive moment: "Rick Perry just lost the race today," she told a staffer when she heard the comment.
This is such a Chris Matthews, Washington way of thinking. Secession in Texas is not an especially dirty word, not that Rick actually used the word... in Texas it is all about Texas once being its own country... it is about Texas exceptionalism...

Rick has been more careful about hinting at secession, but that moment was not a bad one for him... it helped him. It showed that he understood just how angry people were about Obama and Washington, and it signaled that he meant business in terms of standing up to Washington... see his recent lawsuit with Todd Staples and Greg Abbott against the EPA for more evidence of that.

Okay... another revealing quote, this time from Kay's husband Ray...

Early in the campaign, the senator and her husband, Ray, met with advisers in their living room discussing possible lines of attack by Perry, a Hutchison ally familiar with the meeting said. Earmarks came up, but Ray Hutchison downplayed the impact.

"Which one of these projects does Rick Perry want to say no to because Kay couldn't secure federal dollars?" he said.

That is amazing... and their response to Rick saying "you voted for the tea pot museum in North Carolina" has been the same throughout the campaign... "how dare you attack us for fighting for Texas." People see that interaction and the win goes to Rick every time. He is pointing out wasteful projects out of state... like an indoor rainforest in Iowa... and she says, well... so what, I am getting a lot of pork for Texas...

What about those wasteful projects out of Texas Kay? You never even tried to explain those.

Back to the tea parties... look at this quote...

Perry scrambled to appear at every Tea Party gathering he could on tax day. "I know for a fact that he called multiple Tea Parties trying to get on stage at as many as possible," said Houston Tea Party organizer Ryan Hecker.

Hutchison did not appear at a Tea Party on April 15. She was at a more traditional campaign event, at a Houston supporter's furniture store, where she criticized government spending.

Afterwards, at a fundraiser at supporter Ned Holmes' house in Houston, she learned of Perry's comments about secession and thought he had just handed her the election.

Rick was on the tea party bandwagon early... Kay and 95% of politicians were horrified by the tea party...

By August 2009, the Hutchison campaign assembled a focus group to test the message that Perry was hypocritical: he criticized the bailout but accepted $12.5 billion in stimulus funds. He had rejected one small portion – $550 million for unemployment benefits.

They didn't care. Perry got credit for turning Washington down.

Exactly... and it was Kay who was hypocritical for saying Rick should have taken all of the money then criticizing him when he rejected some of it... then criticizing him for not rejecting all of it I guess??...

More than that, why would anyone still waste money on a focus group?

Twitter is the modern focus group. Facebook. Grassroots events are the modern focus group. What gets the most retweets or likes and comments on Facebook... what gets the most applause at small grassroots gatherings in small towns... those are your own focus groups you need these days...

It probably wouldn't sell many copies but I would love to read a book co-written by the Rick and Kay teams about how Kay went from such a giant lead in the polls to such a giant deficit... even against an incumbent in an anti incumbent year... I would also love to listen in on a post mortem panel if anyone is thinking of doing one of those... I could contribute some pretty good questions to someone else to ask considering I have been covering this election in more depth than anyone else over the past year...

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Staff taunts...

One of Rick's staff members... I think actual staff not "Kevin Crouch" style staff... is taunting Kay's campaign for poor crowds (link)...

Lets compare the “crowds” that came to see KBH and that came to see Governor Perry this past week. All the events were well publicized by both teams through phone calls, emails, social media and old fashion word of mouth.

The pictures speak for themselves on what team has the momentum going into these next three days.

Crowds for Governor Perry

“Crowds” for Team Kay

Let me hereby egg this on...

More taunting!

More trash talk!

Friday, February 26, 2010

Rick's money cannon versus Kay's fund raising failure...

Kay's peeps are freaking out about Rick's 1.3 plus million dollar one day fund raising haul, and they got Christy Hoppe to write an article about it (link). Excerpt follows...

Gov. Rick Perry has bragged this week about making fundraising history by bringing in a record $1.3 million in one day, intimating that it came from tapping grassroots support. It turns out that the money mostly came from those who own the field.

[SNIP]

Jennifer Baker, a spokeswoman for Kay Bailey Hutchison, said Perry is again misleading Texans.

"The same Rick Perry lying about his campaign contributions is the same election year Rick that campaigns like a conservative and when elected tramples parental and property rights," Baker said, citing his now-rescinded mandate to have teenage girls receive cervical cancer vaccines and now-defunct Trans Texas Corridor.

What? Specifically what lie is Baker suggesting? That woman has wild eyes and bad quotes, I don't care at this point of tip toeing around that. I am going to say it. I think Jeff Sadosky was superior without question to Jen Baker and Joe Pounder put together... yet he rarely seemed to go on record in the press. What was that about?

I looked and Rick's peeps clearly are saying a larger number on their money cannon page than in their report...

What could explain the discrepancy?

Oh how about a little thing called 8 day telegram reports and Texas Ethics Commission rulings... candidates have to report all the money they raise every single day within 8 days of an election. Except they don't actually have to report it all because for big campaigns it would be practically impossible to report them all in such a short period of time... so they only have to report contributions over a thousand dollars each day...

Which means that while Rick definitely got the bulk of his campaign cash from large donors he must have had hundreds upon hundreds of small donors at or under 1000 on Wednesday that were not reported. That is the only way they could have raised so much more money than showed up in the reports from people over 1000...

I do not claim to be an expert on Texas campaign fundraising laws, but Christy Hoppe should have at the bare minimum included the fact that contributions of 1000 or less during the 8 days before an election don't have to be reported until the halfway point of the year...

This got me thinking, so I did a little digging around... actually someone dug for me and emailed me but like Paul Burka always says this is not the New York Times it is a blog so I am just passing along information that I have received...

On February 22, 23, and 24, Kay reported only a handful of total donations including 5 at 1000 and 4 others above 1000 adding up to 17,000... in three days... plus just under 10 grand from John Nau for use of his plane...

I doubt Kay raised money from more than 5 or 10 peeps under 1000, so this is pretty amazing. Her money has dried up almost completely... she raised around 6000 dollars on the day that Rick raised close to 1.4 million... look at those numbers for a second...

1,400,000

0,006,000

Kay better start hoping this race doesn't go to a runoff, because at least if Rick wins on March 2 she can always claim it was "close" but a runoff could get amazingly ugly fast... 62-38 would be my prediction in that situation...

Right now I am keeping my prediction for the general election that Rick will have over 50%. Kay won't get more than a third of the votes. Medina won't top... hopefully... 15%.

Weakest quote of the campaign?

We may have a winner, from Kay spokesman Joe Pounder regarding the Minutemen endorsement of Rick (link). Excerpt follows...
"When it comes to border security, Rick Perry's a Minuteman in the campaign but then takes a minute to forget what he said when the election is over," said Hutchison spokesman Joe Pounder.
On just about every level this quote is just terrible. Maybe next time go get a few more years of experience before being the primary spokesman for a statewide gubernatorial race in the second largest state in America...