Rick's chances of victory... 85.5%...

Liberal Nate Silver who blogs at Five Thirty Eight at the New York Times did another simulation and found very little change. Rick's chances of winning... 85.5% (link). Seems like Perry vs. World blog is on to something here about the DGA's recent play into Texas politics being more of a funnel of money than a strategic move (link). Excerpt follows...

The DGA probably doesn't see anything in this race. The DGA is a 527, headed by Tom Daschle's kid and unregulated by the FEC, that can accept unlimited contributions and pass them through to the campaign.

So is the DGA targeting Perry? Maybe...but likely not because there are much smarter places for the DGA to spend its money (FL, CA, OH, MA, PA, IL, MD, etc off the top of my head). It is much more likely that an uber-rich political donor is using the DGA to temporarily conceal the source of the money. That way, the media won't report who is funding the attacks, just that the DGA is spending money. Not only does it more or less conceal the source of the funds, but it leads political reporters who aren't paying attention (what's up WaPo?) to write about how the DGA is targeting the campaign, thus creating the illusion that DGA thinks the race is winnable.

Who would have a motive to try to conceal their identity for at least a few weeks? Well, one person has spent quite alot of money on attacking Rick Perry in order to help Bill White: Steve Mostyn. Donors generally don't want to become the issue in the campaign, especially when their contributions get into the multi-million range. I'm just speculating, but if I were betting, I'd bet that Steve Mostyn made a sizable contribution to the Democratic Governors Association. If you go check the data on the biggest contributors to the DGA up until the beginning of September, you will find that the Mostyn Law Firm is one of the largest DGA contributors (the first 5 are all unions). I could certainly be wrong, but it seems likely to be a good guess.

By the way, I seem to recall Texas Dem partybloggers complaining for the last 4 years when Bob Perry donated $1M to the RGA, yet they seem to be strangely silent this time around. I look forward to seeing if they are equally outraged this time. 

Sure looks like that may be the case...

Giant Chia hair sculptures with Rick and Bill White...

Bill White and Rick are immortalized as giant chia heads by a COW WOW compost company (link)....

At least someone is having fun... although that's a pretty low number of total votes... 82 to 68 on my computer... you would think they might have hundreds or thousands on each side for something like this. Giant clay figures of gubernatorial candidates... with chia hair... seems like this should have caught fire...

I think their mistake might have been including Kinky Friedman, ironically... he sort of politicized the event instead of just giving it publicity...

Bill White's chief benefactor goes berserk...

Steve Mostyn really thinks he owns the world apparently...



He really needs to be reined in... and the msm needs to vet him quite a bit more... he is shady... he is throwing money around trying to buy influence... and he is clearly going off the rails emotionally...

In all reality, his body language is really bizarre and awkward... he is like some kind of strange character from a bad movie...

Rick's lead among women baffles press...

Here is my theory. Rick does lead among women, but possibly by less than this poll shows.... but he probably leads by many more points among men (link). Excerpt follows...

The voter gender gap usually goes like this: Across the country, men prefer Republicans, while women prefer Democrats.

But this year in Texas, there's something unusual going on. Republican Gov. Rick Perry has a significant lead over Democrat Bill White among women.

"Perry is doing extraordinarily well among women," said Mickey Blum, whose firm, Blum & Weprin Associates Inc., conducted a poll on behalf of the American-Statesman and other newspapers. She said that in years of polling in Texas, this might be the first time she's seen more women than men backing the Republican.

The poll found that 50 percent of women who are likely voters prefer Perry, while 40 percent prefer White. Overall, 46 percent of likely voters picked Perry and 39 percent liked White, the poll said.

If you want to know the real reason Rick will win women, it is the same reason Obama won so many women... or why Clinton won so many women... women don't want to have to look at Bill White's gollum looking mug for four years whereas Rick is who they wish their husbands looked like at age 60...

vs.

Bill White is just so bad looking, both on the outside and inside... especially on the inside... he can't connect to women the way his former boss Clinton could not just because it is bald and looks like Elmer Fudd... he can't connect because he has no warmth in his soul or compassion in his tone of voice... his idea of a good speech is to go on and on for an hour in a monotone voice... and rarely smile... and then raise his voice to the point of a yell to make his points... his television commercials are the same way... he just sits there kind of hunched over griping about how bad things are. Nobody wants that.

Rick boycotting New Mexico border governors meeting that was original boycotted by Mexican governors and moved from Arizona...

Earlier this year, Arizona was slated to host a conference of all the border governors including the Mexican border governors... but because of the Arizona immigration law that is making such waves the Mexican governors boycotted and demanded the meeting be moved somewhere else. Rick said that if Jan Brewer wasn't going to be there he wasn't going to be there in a show of support for her and against the boycott of Arizons... even though Rick doesn't support the Arizona law for Texas as it is written (link). Excerpt follows...

A conference of U.S. and Mexico border governors is underway in New Mexico, but New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is the only U.S. governor in attendance after Arizona’s Jan Brewer and Texas’ Rick Perry refused to attend. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was set to co-host the conference but, bogged down with budget issues in Sacramento, at the last minute sent his lieutenant governor instead.

All six Mexican governors, plus several governors-elect, are in attendance, The New York Times reported. The reason for the spat? Brewer’s SB 1070 immigration law, which prompted a boycott of the year’s original border governors conference, to be hosted by Brewer. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson stepped up in July to host the conference instead.

Has Bill White been asked about this? Would he support Rick's decision to support Jan Brewer and not attend?

Border security somehow always becomes an issue in election years... and the vast majority of Texans support an Arizona type of immigration bill for Texas... maybe not the exact language but something similar.

Bill White has run some ads about border security, but like everything with his campaign it is really hard to follow... Bill White hasn't really put out his own plan... he came out against the Arizona law, but he has not indicated whether he would support a similar law if tweaked to fit in Texas.

Texans don't like trial lawyers... Bill White is one... you do the math...

So you are telling me that Rick's peeps are on to something here (link). Excerpt follows...

By a margin of 62 percent to 23 percent, Texans think the state's medical malpractice limits have been a good thing. Asked generally about tort reform laws in the state, 56 percent called it a good thing and 28 percent declared it a bad thing. Only 29 percent say those laws have gone too far, hindering access to the courts for injured people.

Lawsuits have a negative impact on the economy, according to 67 percent of those polled (37 percent called it a "very negative impact"). And almost half — 47 percent — say people file lawsuits to "win big money" while 30 percent said suits are filed to "seek compensation for having been injured or wronged" and 11 percent said the reason most people file is to "punish the party believed to be at fault." Not surprisingly, the people who were most supportive of the reforms were also more likely to think most lawsuits are filed by people seeking large awards. Republicans were more likely to be supportive, too, but that appears to be a matter of intensity. Republicans favor the reforms 69 percent to 14 percent, Democrats by a margin of 46 to 40 percent, and independents by a margin of 51 to 40 percent. The pollsters didn't find a gender gap on that question; they did find support for the tort laws grew stronger with the age of the respondents — older people more strongly favor the changes than younger people.

Lawyers would be the biggest beneficiaries of changes that would make it easier to file suits, according to the respondents; less than a third said the beneficiaries would be injured parties. Most — 78 percent — say the Legislature should "protect reforms designed to reduce abusive lawsuits."

Here's the bit that could play into the things you see and read and hear going into the elections: 72 percent said they'd be less likely to vote for a candidate who accepted campaign contributions from personal injury trial lawyers, while 9 percent said they'd be more likely, 14 percent said it didn't make a difference, and 5 percent didn't answer the question for one reason or another. That antipathy crosses all groups, too.

No wonder Rick and his peeps keep pointing out that Bill White made his fortune as a liberal trial lawyer...

Back to Basics gets basically everything wrong... fact checked...

Martin Bartlett just destroys the liberal trial lawyer Back to Basics attack ad (link). Excerpt follows...

AUSTIN – Deep-pocketed Democrats are once again weighing in on the Texas governor's race.

Even though it has no formal ties to Democrat Bill White, the Back-to-Basics Political Action Committee has spent months attacking his opponent, Gov. Rick Perry.

Its latest ad accuses Perry of being cozy with insurance companies and sticking you with the bill, beginning with a family sitting around their kitchen table, discussing their homeowner’s insurance premiums.

“Rick Perry just raised our insurance bill again,” they lament.

It’s the prelude to a barrage of nebulous claims.

“Under Rick Perry, Texas insurance companies have made over $14 billion in gross profits,” the ad states.

This claim is false, according to several independent accountants and the State Department of Insurance. Since 2001, Texans have paid more than $41 billion in insurance premiums and in that time, insurance companies have paid out nearly $27 billion to policy holders.

While that is a difference of $14 billion, accountants insist that is not an accurate measure of gross profits.

“Big insurance illegally put hundreds of thousands into Texas elections for Perry’s buddies,” the ad asserts.

KVUE gives this claim a rating of "false," because when asked, the back-to-basics political action committee could not provide proof.

The ad flashes the number of $839,500 in so-called illegal contributions from insurance companies.

The political action committee attempts to back up that claim by citing a list of corporate donors who gave money to the Texas Association of Business and the Texans for a Republican Majority political action committee.

“Perry pushed for a law that lets insurance companies raise homeowners rates without having to justify the increase,” the ad states. This claim needs clarification.

On June 11, 2003, Perry signed a Senate Bill into law, deregulating key parts of Texas' insurance market.

The law allows insurance companies to file proposed rate changes with the state; the state insurance commission decides whether the rate will be allowed to stand.

"Now Texas insurance rates are 75 percent higher than other states,” the ad claims.

This claim needs clarification, too.

The average American pays a premium of $822 for homeowners insurance. The average Texan pays $1,448.

While that is 75 percent more than the average, it does not represent a major increase in premiums, according to the Texas Department of Insurance.

In 2003, the average Texan paid $1,249 for a $150,000 home insurance policy. In 2008, the average Texan paid only $23 more for a policy valued at more than $200,000.

So wait... insurance rates went up 23 dollars even though home values rose by an average of 50 thousand dollars? This entire line of attack is a pointless personal vendetta from basically one trial lawyer against the companies he likes to sue so much...

Texans pay more than the national average on home insurance because we live in a state that gets hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, flooding, and other major weather events. Other states like Louisiana and Florida have rates right in line with Texas because they also have lots of risky weather...

Is it just me, or does this campaign need to just end so we can get on with this election, so we can have a conservative legislature and a conservative governor talking again about the kinds of conservative things that have made Texas the envy of the nation... and conservative reforms that will keep us on track to stay the best nation... errrr... state... in America.

Right now the only issues in the public consciousness and in the media are all these liberal issues... who cares about what trial lawyers think. They are throwing a lot of money down this election hole, but trial lawyers have only bought more antipathy toward themselves when session gets here. Let's get on with real issues. I can't wait for all the new conservatives in the legislature to crush the trial lawyers and teach them a lesson... and for these stupid issues framed in a liberal slant to take a back seat again. This time I don't see Democrats running the show through a puppet Republican speaker either...

Washington Democrats injecting millions more into Texas...

Make no mistake... this is about redistricting and maybe a little bit about Rick's upping the ante on tort reform and promising more tort reform with loser pays in the next session.

With regard to redistricting... this week a report came out showing that Texas will get 4 new seats in the United States House of Representatives for the 2012 election...

Now the trial lawyers are going full bore against Rick (link). Excerpt follows...

 In a surprise move, the Democratic Governors Association has decided to up the ante in Texas, with plans to launch an attack ad against Gov. Rick Perry (R ) that assails him as a career politician who has lost touch with the people of the Lone Star State.

The audacious action comes in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for more than a decade. But Democrats have concluded that, even in a year that tilts strongly toward Republicans, Perry is more vulnerable than he has appeared in his race against Democrat Bill White, the former mayor of Houston.

The DGA has already contributed $2 million to White's campaign. The new ad buy, which is scheduled to begin running in the Dallas area Tuesday, represents an independent expenditure on behalf of White. A Democratic strategist said the DGA would spend about $650,000 to $700,000 a week on its ad campaign.

The latest poll in Texas, conducted by Blum & Weprin Associates for a consortium of Texas newspapers, gave Perry a seven-percentage-point lead, 46 percent to 39 percent. The poll was published on Sunday. Perry's lead was consistent with other surveys taken in September.

The public poll showed White and Perry running about even in the Houston area, where White is well known. But Perry held a solid lead in the Dallas area. The DGA hopes its ad campaign will cut into that margin there, which could be the key to White's hopes of winning. 

It looks like Rick will end up getting out spent by a huge margin by his liberal opponents just like he was massively out spent in 2002 and 2006 by his opponents. The DGA message is on HPV, TTC, and living in a mansion... three of the most meaningless issues ever. Issues Kay used ineffectively. Issues Bill White has used ineffectively.

On the cancer vaccine the issue is a net plus with Rick among moderates and especially women yet it never went through anyway... on the TTC it has been dead for a long time now and some people like toll roads anyway since it shows Rick was trying to be proactive on building infrastructure... on the mansion... whatever... governors live in governors mansions.

Is it just me or is this campaign a very similar re run of the March primary?

Three takeaways...

1. Democrats are going to lose really big all over the country if they are wasting big money on Texas. A few million dollars goes a lot further in smaller states than it does in Texas.

2. This looks like the same thing that Chris Bell sued Rick for after the 2006 election, with the RGA putting a huge buy into Texas. Now it is Texas trial lawyers like Steve Mostyn funneling money through the DGA to help his trial lawyer friend Bill White. How ironic. I wonder if Rick will sue and get a huge personal settlement from Bill White.

3. In some ways, this looks like the national Democrats and maybe even Obama himself surveying the land scape and seeing redistricting coming up and saying they have to at least try to do something in Texas so they can't be accused of giving up... in some ways it seems like the Democratic Governors Association could have just given the money directly to Bill White as they have already done but instead they chose to spend potentially 2 or 3 or more million dollars on television over the next few weeks.

Why wouldn't they give the money straight to Bill White like they did before? Was it that they didn't trust him anymore? Was it that Bill White suddenly wanted to try to keep his name off negative attack ads even though he has personally attacked Rick in several commercials already from his own mouth?

Could it also be that the liberal Washington Democrats are hijacking Bill White's campaign against his will, in a sense? He is too po dunk and small time for them, so they are going to show him how it's done?

Seriously... Kay wants nothing to do with running in 2012...

Kay just keeps being the old Kay instead of the Kay we saw right after the campaign ended. On a key abortion vote, in keeping with her career pattern, only Kay and Lisa Murkowski did not vote (link). Excerpt follows...

WASHINGTON, D.C., September 27, 2010 (LifeSiteNews.com) – Republicans managed to beat off a cloture vote in the U.S. Senate on a campaign disclosure bill that pro-life groups said would have effectively muzzled their ability to communicate with voters in the upcoming 2010 midterm elections.

“We dodged a cannonball by a whisker,” Douglas Johnson, National Right to Life Committee’s Legislative Director told LifeSiteNews.com (LSN).

The Senate voted Thursday to invoke cloture and proceed to debate the  “Democracy is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections (DISCLOSE) Act” (S.3628). However, they did not succeed in getting 60 votes to overcome a GOP-filibuster.

The motion failed 59 – 39. Every single Democrat, including Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), voted for the bill, but not a single Republican crossed the aisle. GOP Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska did not vote.

As I blogged before, either Kay must have no interest in running in 2012, or she is just really that clueless (link). Kay already has done some really weird things that nobody running in a primary in 2012 would do... helping Lisa Murkowski keep her position on that important energy committee for example.

What do you think out there? Clueless? Or not running in 2012? I hear in back channels that she is going to try to run again in 2012. Unless 2010 totally extinguishes the tea party fervor she is going to get a taste of her own medicine in 2012. Kay will be primaried, but for her it will not be pretty. Taking her down will become a national cause celebre.

Rick and Bill White back to back interviews on WFAA... the Texas version of Meet the Press...

Rick...


Bill White...


Brad Watson is the Tim Russert of Texas politics...

Gromer Jeffords though is really is more of an Alan Colmes...

Double standard on not paying taxes... Claytie Williams versus Bill White...

Why is Bill White getting away with not releasing his taxes, and why is it not a bigger deal that he admitted to not paying taxes in 1995? 

(link). Excerpt follows...

AUSTIN — When millionaire oilman Clayton Williams said he hadn't paid federal income taxes one year, it helped make Ann Richards governor.

Democrat Bill White's disclosure that he didn't have taxable income in 1995 hasn't sparked the same explosion. Circumstances, timing and candidates differ, but the issue isn't helping his battle against Gov. Rick Perry.

The GOP incumbent has made a crusade of demanding that White release his income tax returns for the years he served as deputy energy secretary and as state Democratic Party chairman, refusing to debate White because he hasn't done so.

[SNIP]

A recap: White left as deputy energy secretary in 1995 and started a venture capital business looking at oil and gas investments, according to his campaign. Spokeswoman Katy Bacon wouldn't release his tax return but said he paid $27,668 in federal income taxes, including withholding, estimated tax payments and an overpayment. Because of businesses losses, exemptions and deductions, he had no taxable income. He owed $3,482 in household employment taxes for his housekeeper. He got a refund of $24,186, she said.

That level of detail contrasts with the 1990 disclosure by Republican Williams, who'd refused to release his returns and answered a reporter's question the Friday before Election Day this way: "I'll tell you when I didn't pay any income tax was 1986, when our whole economy collapsed."

Williams - a wildcatter whose shoot-from-the-hip style was a far cry from White's boardroom persona - made the comment on the heels of other high-profile gaffes and couldn't recover.

"I always thought if that statement had not been made on that windy, sunny day in College Station by the side of a train, he would have pulled out that election," said Reggie Bashur, who worked for Williams. He recalled a main damage-control strategy was opening the bar early on the train carrying media. Democrat Richards seized on the comment as an example of Williams being out of step with working Texans and won the race.

Perry's working to make White's returns an issue. Spokesman Mark Miner said "you have working families throughout the state that work every day to pay their taxes ..... This is another example of why it is important for Bill White to release his tax returns. But it also shows why he probably isn't releasing his tax returns." He called White a "liberal millionaire."

That is a funny anecdote from the old days... hey reporters look over here... hey reporters drink some alcohol it is on us...

What is not funny is the double standard. Clayton Williams got reamed incessantly for his comment. By contrast this is one of the only articles in the entire msm about Bill White not paying taxes in 1995...

Rick leads Bill White 46 to 39 in Texas newspaper poll...

Dave Montgomery write up the story for the Forth Worth paper, where Rick leads by more than 50 points (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry leads White by 46 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 15-22 by Blum & Weprin Associates. Libertarian Kathie Glass, a Houston attorney who hopes to cut into Perry's conservative base, has 4 percent. Green Party candidate Deb Shafto, a retired Houston schoolteacher, has less than 1 percent.

Eight percent remain undecided, while 3 percent declined to give a preference.

In Fort Worth, one of the state's leading Republican strongholds, Perry holds a towering lead of 69.6 percent, with 17.8 percent for White.

Why is it that Bill White can't get much over 40% in any of these polls? For all the talk about Rick not being up by 20 and destroying Bill White, the real story seems to be that Bill White is having a lot of trouble getting even into the mid 40s...

R.G. Ratcliffe put his spin on it out of the Houston Chronicle (link). Excerpt follows...

AUSTIN — Ill will toward President Barack Obama and a voter belief that Republican Gov. Rick Perry has helped save the Texas economy are giving Perry a re-election lead over Democrat and former Houston Mayor Bill White, according to a new poll done for the Houston Chronicle and four other state newspapers.

[SNIP]

"It's not an insurmountable lead," said pollster Micheline Blum, but "he certainly looks like he's headed for another term. … Perry has probably both the votes and the enthusiasm behind him."

Despite White and his allies spending millions of dollars on television ads attacking Perry this summer, Blum said the race has remained essentially unchanged since February.

Blum said voters seem to have made up their minds early, and she sees little volatility in the race. Blum said the voters who are undecided probably will not cast a ballot on Nov. 2.

The enthusiasm of Republican voters is dramatic. Among registered voters who answered the survey, Republicans held an advantage of 9 percentage points — roughly typical of the vote in recent elections.

Among those who said they are likely to vote, the Republican advantage jumped to 18 percentage points over Democrats.

That is not surprising but it is an amazing number... I just don't see Rick winning by only 7. I have said all along he will win by 10, and if that last number is true... if Republicans have an 18 point generic ballot advantage in Texas among likely voters... he will end up winning by far more than that. I think the peeps who will disproportionately show up are going to be the Republicans fed up with Washington...

More detailed numbers out of the Houston Chronicle. Excerpt follows...

Perry and White are in almost a dead heat in Houston and San Antonio. Perry is drubbing White in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with a lead of more than 30 percentage points in those cities. White holds a 7-point lead in Austin.

The two are even in urban areas, but Perry has an almost 11-percentage-point lead in non-urban areas.

R.G. doesn't tell us what the actual numbers are in Houston and San Antonio... but I suspect that Rick will beat Bill White in Harris County even if Bill White wins the city of Houston itself... Rick will also strongly carry Sugar Land, The Woodlands, and other suburbs outside of Harris County...

Wayne Slater adds the Dallas spin on it (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry is benefiting from an economy that's better in Texas than in other states and from an energized, anti-Washington fervor that forms a central theme of his re-election campaign, according to the survey by The Dallas Morning News.

"He certainly looks like he's headed for another term," said pollster Mickey Blum.

[SNIP]

In an anti-incumbent year, Perry's 10 years as governor doesn't seem to bother Texans. He leads among whites, older voters and Republicans, groups that traditionally turn out heavily on Election Day. He's also attracting more women, is far ahead in rural Texas and is dividing the vote in urban areas.

So... the people who actually are paying attention... the people who actually vote traditionally especially in non presidential years... the people who are fired up and saying they are really eager to vote... those are the people who support Rick. Meanwhile Bill White is drawing his support from all the groups such as Hispanics and young people that never pan out...

As Paul Burka explains based on the Rasmussen poll showing Rick up by 6, Bill White is destroyed. His negatives exceed his positives (link). Excerpt follows...

42-47

posted by paulburka at 6:55 AM

The headline is White’s favorable/unfavorable number in the Rasmussen poll. If that is accurate–and you can’t make a living in politics by betting that polls are wrong–White is destroyed. What happened? Here are some theories:

1. It all started with White dilly-dallying about releasing his tax returns. It looked as if he had something to hide. If you can’t get over that hurdle, you should not be running for public office. These days, everybody has to release their tax returns. White’s refusal was amateurish. He let the issue cook on the stove until it was boiled over.

[SNIP]

So here we are, in late September, six weeks out, and Perry has essentially turned Bill White into Tony Sanchez.

My advice for Rick and his peeps... stay the course. Rip Bill White's balls off as you have been doing online for months... but you have some work to do reminding peeps why Rick is so likeable... put him on camera as much as you can in the millions of dollars of ads you run between now and November 2... put him in that Carhartt jacket... put him in a suit... put him in a blazer with a light blue shirt and no tie... whatever you have to do... just get Rick out there, and have him smiling. I like the first positive ad that became so controversial... but it seems a little impersonal... Rick is in a stuffy suit even though everyone around him is casual... my completely unscientific field research indicates that the ad from February with the Texas flag waving and Rick in the blue collar Carhartt coat worked... and it worked with Democrats and Independents... rally around Texas... rally around the guy standing up for Texas... rally around the guy who was maybe the first politician in America to stand up to Obama and federal expansion... back when Obama was sitting at 65% approval and before it became cool to do that...

Rick can basically run out the clock at this point if he can play a mistake free game, but the margin being 7 is a blessing in disguise for Rick... it means that his peeps cannot be complacent. They have to have a little concern and act with some urgency... yet they can choose to not engage Bill White... they can be confident and let Bill White and his peeps turn off voters with their strident rhetoric and petty sniping... and wow are Bill White's campaign peeps getting petty lately. They are desperately trying to get Rick and his peeps to engage... baiting them with just really over the top language.

By all means get every human being in Fort Worth to vote as many times as they can get away with... that 50 point lead in Fort Worth is just remarkable... but it makes sense since Forth Worth is America's largest Republican city but still.

Steve Mostyn is one shady dude...

The Texas Watchdog posted a blog worth reading (link). Excerpt follows...

When you do good watchdog journalism, holding people in public life accountable for their actions, you're bound to make some folks angry along the way. And some of those folks will try to strike back at you -- though often the worst thing they can do to you is cancel their subscription to your newspaper. 

That's not the case with someone Texas Watchdog wrote about recently. 

Houston trial lawyer and Democratic mega-donor Steve Mostyn's $25,000 campaign contribution to state Rep. Todd Hunter -- who was mediating a lawsuit involving some folks Mostyn represented -- is pretty angry at us about that story. And, being a prominent, wealthy, politically connected attorney, he can do a lot more than call us up and cancel his subscription.

He's taking us to court. 

On Friday, Mostyn subpoenaed the reporter on that story, Steve Miller, and our editor, Trent Seibert. Mostyn wants to take depositions from both men. The subpoenas come on the heels of Mostyn filing court papers accusing Texas Watchdog of doing political dirty work for Republicans.

Mostyn hasn't challenged the veracity of our story -- because it is accurate and based on public records. A champion of Democratic causes known for winning big settlements against insurance companies, Mostyn gave $25,000 to Republican Hunter, an advocate of tort reform.

 

Texas Watchdog is a small nonprofit news organization. We've only been around a couple of years. But we want our readers to know that we intend to fight back. 

We wrote and published a story on our website based on public records that was entirely accurate. This is still America. The First Amendment still guarantees freedom of the press and free speech.

 

Unhappy story subjects don't get to haul reporters into court over accurate stories they don't like even if they are prominent, wealthy, politically connected attorneys. 

I once heard a smart person say, "The way to fight free speech is with more free speech." Indeed, we gave Mr. Mostyn the opportunity to comment on the story. But rather than provide comment he issued subpoenas.

We may be small, but we won't be intimidated. 

Steve Mostyn is a pox on Texas. He needs to be scrutinized and examined a lot more by the msm.

Paul Burka laments Rick talking about issues Texans care about...

People care about jobs and the economy right now... and Rick is talking about jobs and the economy... but Paul Burka wants him to talk about education instead (link). Excerpt follows...

The Perry campaign is deliberately dull. It is full of old messages — more jobs, fewer taxes, secure the border, stop Obama, fight the feds and the liberals. There is no effort to expand the governor’s message beyond what Perry has been saying for years, no effort to attract new voters, just make your pitch to the base. Perry is betting that he can win the election with the voters he already has, and that White can’t get enough Democrats (or Republicans) to make the race close. It’s all about the base. In his last race, in 2006, Perry did have a spot that showed him among school children. Compare this to Bush, who ran on education reform, a base-expanding message (along with base-appealing tort reform, welfare reform, and juvenile justice reform). We haven’t seen any overture to the political center this time. 

Chalk this one up to another example of a media guy who shouldn't be allowed to give candidates strategy advice. People are concerned about the economy, so Rick should run his campaign on education reform? Give me a break.

Rick 48 Bill White 42 Other 3 Undecided 6

Rasmussen has a new poll out today (link). Excerpt follows...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Lone Star State finds Perry with 48% of the vote, while White has 42% support. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Last month, Perry held a 49% to 41% lead. The new numbers move the race from Solid GOP to Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
Perry has held a small lead over White in surveys since February, with support ranging from 47% to 51%. White, a former mayor of Houston, has picked up 38% to 44% of the vote in those same surveys.

6 point lead is consistent with some other polls. Extrapolate out the undecided vote, and Rick has over 50%, White is low to mid 40s, and Glass and Shafto get a few percent total.

My prediction has been and remains 10 points.

Bill White's crappy campaign in the valley...

Bill White posted this on his Facebook from a trip to south Texas... looks like a really successful trip to the valley...

Corrie MacLaggan reports on the lackluster effort and response to White in areas he needs a huge turnout (link). Excerpt follows...

Few signs of Valley surge for Bill White so far

By Debra Davis | Thursday, September 23, 2010, 05:01 PM

Podcast audio: Texas Political Parlor: 09.23.10

The Statesman’s Corrie MacLaggan tagged along with the Bill White campaign last week as it made a swing through the Rio Grande Valley. She talks to KUT’s Ian Crawford about what she saw in the heavily Democratic area of Texas that White needs to win the governor’s office.

Just look at that picture... that guy is looking at Bill White like who is this guy interrupting me trying to get my mack on with this sexy gal...  just leave us alone...

Rick up by 20+ points in swing districts...

A controversial new poll from a liberal organization on behalf of a Democrat running for Congress has Rick up bigtime (link). Excerpt follows...

A survey that was conducted by the chief pollster for trial lawyers who fiercely oppose Governor Rick Perry shows him with a big lead over challenger Bill White in a northeast Texas House district that Democratic candidates have believed they needed to carry to have a shot at winning statewide in the past two decades.

The poll that the Austin firm Opinion Analysts administered for the House Democratic Campaign Committee showed White trailing Perry by 22 points in the four-county district where it found State Rep. Stephen Frost leading Republican George Lavender by 26 points.

While Lavender's campaign has assailed the HD 1 survey as a push poll that attempted to boost Frost's support by smearing the GOP challenger, the polling by the Democrats could be a bad sign for them in their hopes of recapturing the governor's office in the November general election if it's accurate.

White's campaign showed no initial alarm by the poll results in the northeast Texas House district while choosing to focus on the big picture instead. "What we see across polls is that Texans are ready for a new governor after 10 years of Rick Perry, who only looks out for himself, his friends and special interests," White's campaign spokesperson Katy Bacon said.

The HDCC poll showed both Perry and Frost with support from 53 percent of the voters while White and Lavender were favored by 31 percent and 27 percent respectively. The poll results in the gubernatorial competition were more in line with its finding that two out of every three voters in Frost's district disapproved of the job that Democratic President Barack Obama has been doing. Lavender's camp said today that it's own internal polling better reflects the trends in the governor's race and White House job performance ratings by showing the Republican House hopeful ahead of Frost by four points in the HD 1 battle.

If you aren't subscribing to Mike Hailey's Capitol Inside, you should. He always seems to have these scoops.

Rick being up by 22 in this area even in a Democrat push poll seems like really really bad news for Bill White.

Guess who is descending further, deeper, into irrelevance? The National Conference of Editorial Writers...

This is pretty unreal. Rick went to go speak to a group of newspaper peeps from around the country. Then worked the room and took photos. He did a media avail or two with local news peeps... and he didn't take questions from the group as per what they apparently agreed to beforehand... yet the group blasted Rick for that (link). Excerpt follows...

If Gov. Rick Perry's goal in speaking at the National Conference of Editorial Writers luncheon in Dallas was to win the group over, then they say he "utterly failed."

After the incumbent Republican governor's appearance, National Conference of Editorial Writers President Tom Waseleski issued an open letter to Perry saying the group was "stunned and disappointed" that he did not take questions. And they aren't buying any argument about time constraints, because, according to the letter, Perry had "ample time to work the room by shaking hands."

Perry spokesman Mark Miner described the tone of the letter as "inappropriate" and said, "It’s unfortunate that the president of the organization would think so highly of himself and his organization that he would write a letter like he did." 

Miner said the group was aware that Perry would not be taking questions and that, as Miner puts it, "he had a schedule to keep."

In a press release casting the incident as a "gaffe" on Perry's part, Katy Bacon, campaign spokeswoman for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill White said, "A room full of informed questioners is career politician Rick Perry’s worst nightmare."

Perry's campaign has notably opted to forego meetings with Texas editorial boards in his re-election effort. Miner says the governor's time is better spent talking directly to Texans through media, social media and public events. He noted that Perry was criticized in the letter for speaking with members of the local press after his speech. "Perry is more focused on the Texas press than on editorial writers from Sheboygan, Wisconsin," he said.

Here's the letter:

September 23, 2010

Dear Gov. Perry:

The National Conference of Editorial Writers was stunned and disappointed today when you spoke at our luncheon and did not take questions.

Had it been due to a tight schedule, we would have understood. But, clearly, you  had ample time to work the room by shaking hands both before and after your talk.  You also gave an extended interview before TV cameras in the hallway, in full view of NCEW members for whom you indicated you had no more time.

This is an affront to any notion of civil discourse, such as the kind you have called for on other occasions.

We believe you and your staff  have been disingenuous in the characterization of your schedule. If you had hoped to make a positive impression on this national press group, I must tell you that you utterly failed.

Sincerely,

Tom Waseleski

NCEW President

Wow. Just wow....

Hey newspaper editorialists. Want to know why you are losing readers at a breathtaking clip? Stunts like this is why... I am practically at a loss for words over just how stupid this is...

Kay helps Lisa Murkowski retain her position on the Energy committee...

It's practically official. Kay is not running for senate again in 2012, and if she is running her chances just fell again after creeping up since her disastrous primary battle. Kay is back on the RINO band wagon... helping ousted and disgraced Republican in Name Only Lisa Murkowski cling to power on an important committee (link). Excerpt follows...

Senate Republicans defied expectations Wednesday and did not remove Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) as the senior Republican on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. 



After debating her future during a closed-door meeting, the GOP conference voted to let Murkowski keep her committee position despite the write-in challenge she has mounted against Joe Miller, the winner of her state’s Republican primary.

Republicans worry Murkowski’s candidacy could cause their party a safe seat by splitting the GOP vote with Miller, who upset Murkowski after receiving support from the Tea Party movement and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

But several of her colleagues argued Wednesday that Murkowski should get to keep her committee position as she fights to retain her seat in the Senate.

Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas) and George Voinovich (Ohio) were among several senators who spoke in her favor, according to Republican aides. They said the conference should not do anything to harm her following Murkowski’s resignation as vice chairwoman of the Senate GOP conference

[SNIP]

Hutchison ended the discussion by moving to hold a vote on not doing anything, which passed. The vote was by secret ballot and the vote count was not announced, aides said.

When asked immediately after the meeting whether Republicans would convene on a later date to vote on stripping Murkowski of her committee leadership position, Senate Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) said: “Well, there’s no other meeting of the conference scheduled right now.”

Kay, what are you thinking?

There was certainly a way for Kay to get back into favor with conservatives. She was kind of on her way... she seemed to have gotten wise to why she lost... Kay needed to champion conservative legislation... get her name attached to a cause... and not do anything like this to poke the base in the eye.

As it is, Kay seems hell bent on being... well... Kay... which is why she was trounced so resoundingly in March...

National Journal claims 20 gubernatorial seats could switch parties in 2010... Texas not listed...

The National Journal doesn't see an upset chance in Texas among the top 20 governor's races in America (link). Excerpt follows...

The House may be in play. The Senate may be fertile ground for pickups. But no aspect of American politics will show evidence of the pro-Republican wave more than the nation's governorships, dozens of which will be on the ballot this year thanks to term limits and retirements.

Republicans are running well ahead in several Democratic-held states, while Democrats have their own opportunities to take back seats they believe are rightly theirs. But after a decade of Democratic gains in statehouses across the country, it's beginning to look like those gains are going to snap back in one fell swoop.

Previewing the gubernatorial landscape, here are The Hotline's race rankings, presented in order of a seat's likelihood of changing hands:

Related: House Race Rankings / Senate Race Rankings

1. Wyoming -- Open Seat (D)

Gov. Dave Freudenthal's retirement demonstrates what everyone already knew -- there's no such thing as a Democratic bench in this very red state. Say hello to Gov. Matt Mead.

2. Kansas -- Open Seat (D)

Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is one Washington insider not taking a hit this election. He is so confident of victory that he's already avoiding any future debates with his Democratic opponent, Tom Holland.

3. Tennessee -- Open Seat (D)

Once Republicans nominated their most electable candidate in Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, Democrat Mike McWherter's already slim chances got thinner.

4. Michigan -- Open Seat (D)

The question isn't whether Republican Rick Snyder is going to win. The question is whether his margins will be so big his coattails carry downballot Republicans with him.

5. Oklahoma -- Open Seat (D)

Gov. Brad Henry (D) won election twice in this very red state. But this year, in this climate, his lieutenant, Jari Askins, doesn't stand a good chance against Rep. Mary Fallin (R).

6. Iowa -- Chet Culver (D)

When an incumbent apologizes and asks his father to vouch for him, it's not a good sign. Combine that with a popular opponent in former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) and polls that show Culver down by double digits, and Republicans have reason to smile.

7. Hawaii -- Open Seat (R)

The Aloha State was one of the first places where the Republican Governors Association spent money. But Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona doesn't look like he'll be able to take advantage of the Republican wave in a fundamentally Democratic state. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie has an early leg up.

8. Connecticut -- Open Seat (R)

Democrats nominated their stronger candidate in former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, while Republicans went with the rich but politically untested nominee in Tom Foley. Malloy's experience, and revelations about Foley's past, have played a bigger role so far than Foley's money.

9. Rhode Island -- Open Seat (R)

The race is a toss-up, but the Republican is all but an afterthought. The real battle is between Democrat Frank Caprio and independent Lincoln Chafee, with Republican John Robitaille playing the third wheel.

10. Illinois -- Pat Quinn (D)

Who would have thought last year that President Obama's home state would be a disaster zone for the party? From the White House on down, Democrats are privately dismissing Quinn's chances against conservative Bill Brady (R). What's worse, some believe Quinn's anemic performance could hurt their chances in the Senate race and several pivotal House seats as well.

11. Pennsylvania -- Open Seat (D)

This contest is going to twist and turn a few more times, but it's clear that state Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) has the edge over Allegheny Co. Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D). Pennsylvania tends to give one party eight years in office, then it's the other one's turn. After eight years of Gov. Ed Rendell (D), that trend looks like it will hold.

12. Ohio -- Ted Strickland (D)

With the latest Quinnipiac poll showing Strickland losing by 17 (!) points to former Rep. John Kasich (R), the state appears to be rapidly slipping away from the Democrats. The economic environment here is tough for any incumbent, even one who's had a relatively positive first term, like Strickland.

13. Vermont -- Open Seat (R)

This is one of the few states where Democrats believe they can win back the governorship. But since they nominated the more liberal Peter Shumlin, Republicans still think they're in the game with Gov. Jim Douglas' right-hand man, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R).

14. New Mexico -- Open Seat (D)

Thanks to her Hispanic background and Sarah Palin's endorsement, Susana Martinez has emerged as one of the potential GOP stars this year. The more Bill Richardson is in the news, the worse it gets for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D).

15. Wisconsin -- Open Seat (D)

Democratic strategists are awfully glum about Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's chances in a state they had very high hopes for several months ago. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) survived the primary and looks like a slight favorite to flip this statehouse red.

16. Maine -- Open Seat (D)

Republican Paul LePage, a Tea Party favorite, is polling ahead of state Sen. Libby Mitchell (D) in a state that exhibits fiscally conservative trends as much as it does socially liberal attitudes. LePage has room to fall, and he should probably stop stomping out of press conferences. Complicating the picture: Maine's tradition of giving independent candidates healthy portions of the vote.

17. Oregon -- Open Seat (D)

It's a sign of how poorly insiders, perceived or otherwise, are faring when popular former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) runs even with, or slightly behind, political novice and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) in public polling. Kitzhaber doesn't even get the benefit of really being an insider -- he had contentious relations with his own party and the media during his two terms.

18. Minnesota -- Open Seat (R)

This is shaping up to be a race to the bottom. Republican Tom Emmer is well to the right of the state's electorate, even in a Republican wave year. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) isn't remembered all that fondly from his tumultuous term in Washington, either. Still, after eight years of Tim Pawlenty, this blue state seems ready to return to its roots.

19. Florida -- Open Seat (I)

It'll be a big night in Florida if flawed but wealthy Republican Rick Scott prevails against Democrat Alex Sink. Dems have tried to recruit Sink for years, and they got lucky when Republicans nominated Scott over the boring but electable Bill McCollum. Still, this race is a true toss-up right now.

20. California -- Open Seat (R)

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman has already won one thing -- she holds the record for most personal money spent on a campaign, north of $115 million. She faces a Democratic electorate, but state AG/former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) virtually defines the term "insider," and Democrats are wondering just when Brown will start acting like a candidate.

Yeah... there is a tiny chance... the New York Times pegs Bill White's chances at 14.1% (link).

But you kind of just have to agree with the National Journal... which also explains why I blogged a lot more during the primary... it was a lot more interesting yet look at where that ended up... a 20+ point win... in November the margin will probably be closer, but somehow the race itself was a lot less interesting. I think that's because within primaries people are willing to actually choose. In general elections, it's all about partisan fans and turnout...

There are just more Republicans in Texas... and they are just more fired up to vote than Democrats... Bill White isn't breaking through... and Rick has done a good job so why pick someone closer to Obama? Why not stay with the person standing up to Obama on the tarmac... why not pick the person who helped Texas withstand the recession better than every other state... and why take a chance on a guy who won't even release his tax records?

Why newspaper peeps don't do political consulting...

Jason Embry who I pick on a lot but is honestly one of the fairest Texas political journalists out there today... an equal opportunity kind of guy... did a chat today and then tweeted about how nobody showed up... self deprecating always works... (link)

This comment caught my eye...

11:14

[Comment From Kenny Powers: ] White is still running positive bio spots with only a few weeks left...do you think that means he has stalled in internal polling?

11:15

Jason Embry: If your polling isn't going well, that's when you usually go negative. I expect White's own ads to go negative on Perry soon. Steve Mostyn, of course, has been going negative on Perry for months.

If your polling isn't going well, that's when you usually go negative?

Sez who?

That may be the common wisdom spouted by a bunch of editorialists, but there are countless examples out there of candidates "going negative" whether they are down, up, tied, or sideways. Obama went relentlessly negative against McCain despite being way up in the polls... Rick went negative against Kay even right at the end when he surged to a big lead in most polls. Reagan went negative against Mondale despite being up so far in the polls Mondale only won one state in the end.

You don't "go negative" because you don't like what this week's polls are saying. In fact you don't do anything like that to respond to polls. That is amateurish... any well run campaign will have a plan for negative ads many months before they run them... when they actually air all just depends on money in the bank. Quick... name a contested campaign that didn't do negative ads...

A campaign that flops around aimlessly responding to polls is a losing campaign.

The point of the Kenny Powers question was that Bill White is still desperately trying to define himself... talking about being the son of school teachers and all of that garbage... he should have transitioned into ideas long ago...

This is not Rick's campaign's first rodeo. I can't imagine they saw some liberal PPP poll and thought... oh man... let's write scripts for three negative ads against Bill White... and spend probably several days honing them... and then put them on television... I bet at least some of these ads have been in the tape deck ready to go for weeks... notice how they kind of look similar to the ones they did in the primary but also look similar to the YouTube videos they put out against Bill White already...

For Jason Embry... here is a football analogy... imagine if the Texans (Rick) were up by two touchdowns in the 4th quarter... the momentum was going their way. The game is not even as close as the score. Sure the refs (the media) were making just atrociously, criminally bad calls and favoring the Redskins (Bill White), but everything was basically in hand... and then the Texans just start pounding the ball down the throats of the Redskins.

Imagine if after a field goal by the Redskins, with 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, the Texans were still up by a couple touchdowns... and announcers started saying, "wow, it is really not going well for the Texans... which explains why they are running the ball right now..."

Imagine how dumb and poorly informed that would sound...

What else would the Texans be doing?

Of course they should be running the ball down the throats of the Redskins in the 4th quarter...

Of course Rick should be running negative ads against Bill White with 3 weeks to go before early voting...

What else would he be doing?

Political commentators need to get it out of their heads that negative ads "mean" something... they just don't. Everyone does them. Everyone will do them for years to come. Obama will do them in 2012. The incumbent Republican president will do them in 2016. They run on television because they work.

New poll out shows Rick up by 12...

Rick up by 12? You be the judge (link). Excerpt follows...

Rick Perry is leading by a large margin over Democrat Bill White according to a poll commissioned by the Choctaw Nation on a number of issues, but that also asked about the governor's race. The poll is about three weeks old, but just released.

The nitty-gritty: Perry is at 49 percent and White at 37. The logistics: poll was conducted by live telephone interviews of 1,000 likely voters between Aug. 25-29, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent. It was done by the firm of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates -- a firm that has done polling for White.

12 point lead? Maybe. I have been predicting a 10% win for a while...

One of the anti Bill White ads...

One of the three anti Bill White ads from Rick's campaign...

Looks a lot like the anti Kay ads...

Nate Silver upgrades Rick's chances of winning to 85.9%.

Liberal Nate Silver of Five Thirty-Eight (538) at the New York Times has downgraded Bill White's chances to 14.1% from 16.5% just earlier this month. (link). Rick was upgraded from 83.5% to 85.9%...

Has anyone posted those anti Bill White videos yet? Apparently there were not just two... there were three... and the AP reported on them, but I have still not seen them... then again I don't watch much tv... still... they can't be good for Bill White's already meager chances.

Funny flip flop from Bill White on tourism advertising budget...

Last week Bill White ripped the Texas tourism ad budget... it was full bore attack mode from White on the subject... he had nothing good to say about it... he even mischaracterized how the advertisements are funded... and he called it the governor's advertising budget which doesn't exist... very very weird line of attack...

Then the backlash happened... he got letters... he woke the travel industry in Texas... which is taxed at something like half a percent to pay for the ads...

AUSTIN – Bill White's campaign, under fire from the hospitality industry, now says the Democrat doesn't want to get rid of state-paid ads wooing tourists if he's elected governor.

"He's saying it's a candidate for cuts, not that he would zero it out," White spokeswoman Katy Bacon said Tuesday, referring to a tourism ad campaign controlled by the governor's office.

"Bill has never said that he would zero out the state's tourism budget or that he would end any current program," Bacon said.

She declined to say how much White favors trimming.

Seven trade associations representing hotels, restaurants and other parts of the tourism industry have asked White to clarify his position, saying the ads produce $7 of tax money for each $1 the state spends on ads. They're paid for with a small slice of the state's 6 percent hotel occupancy tax.

The former Houston mayor told The Associated Press for a story published last week that he would ax the $22 million annual ad campaign to save the state money.

This week, The Dallas Morning News also reported that White would eliminate the ad campaign, in a story about how some state leaders for the first time are saying Texas' two-year budget shortfall could be nearly $21 billion.

Let me ask this... if Katy Bacon and Bill White are so blatantly lying about a relatively small thing... and make no mistake they are caught here... their explanations are so tortured... if they are going to be so obvious about flip flopping but trying to cover their tracks with lies on the small things...

...what big things are they lying about?

When will the press grow tired of being blatantly lied to by this bunch? When will they stop giving Bill White a pass?

I get emails... anti Bill White ads on television??

I have received two emails in the past hour asking me what I know about the anti Bill White ads on television.

I know nothing, have seen nothing, can find nothing on the usual channels Rick's peeps use online, but I was told in one there was something about B-TEC, and I was told another one had something to do with Bill White leaving a hole in the budget in Houston. Could these be paid for by a third party? Is that why Rick's peeps don't have them on LiberalBill.com or You Tube? Maybe one is Rick's ad, one is a third party ad? Maybe Empower Texans got a big check... or RGA is playing? It seems unlike Rick's peeps to have two ads against an opponent start at the same time like that...

If you find anything out, post it here. I will try to watch the local news to see the ads for myself and report on them...

I will say this... whoever is behind the ads... it is about time. Bill White needs to be taken down a peg or two...

Immigration nation... United States of Texas...

This is another creative take on dividing Texas into parts... because really Texas is amazingly diverse after all (link). Excerpt follows...

Both candidates have campaigned in the Valley on several occasions, but Immigration Nation citizens live and work in large numbers far beyond the Rio Grande. According to Patchwork Nation statistics, they exert a decisive influence, culturally and in some areas politically, in more than 70 of the state's 254 counties - not only throughout South Texas but also in West Texas, the Panhandle and elsewhere.

Very interesting way to conceptualize Texas... not just as geographic regions per se but as parts of the state that have things in common...

Evangelical epicenters... the United States of Texas...

This is pretty interesting (link). Excerpt follows...

Evangelical epicenters make up one of the United States of Texas that will play an influential role this fall as Texans choose their governor. Seventy-four of the state's 254 counties, dispersed throughout Texas, are evangelical epicenters.

Texas is becoming more urban and more suburban and less rural... witness the decline of the Farm Bureau's relevance in the primary... they once wielded tremendous power but now they are pretty marginal...

Bill White staffer spreading defamatory innuendo about Rick...

The sign of a losing campaign.

When Kay started losing it, she embedded secret subliminal messages in her website about how Rick is gay... which got her banned from google, yahoo, and other search engines (link).

Now that Bill White is on the ropes, one of his staffers is actively spreading these same kinds of defamatory and patently absurd rumors (link). Excerpt from a commenter follows...

Please... (0.00 / 0)

You need to be careful with the gay-baiting. There's lots of "politically correct" Republicans and Democrats who will vote for Rick Perry just because of the gay-baiting.

Pretty shocking that a Bill White staffer would do this... seems like the kind of thing that Bill White should denounce and his staffer should apologize for...

Winning campaigns don't do this sort of thing, notwithstanding a few well known examples to the contrary. Usually losers who work for losing campaigns spread bogus rumors through these kinds of black hat whisper tactics...

Rick up 6 in Texas Tribune internet poll.... 39-33...

Taken around the same time the PPP poll showed Rick up by 6... overlapping at least by a few days... the Texas Tribune University of Texas poll shows Rick up by 6 as well... but this one has a crazy high number of undecided which doesn't seem to match most other surveys (link). Excerpt follows...

Republican Gov. Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White, by 6 percentage points — 39 percent to 33 percent — in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Libertarian Kathie Glass has the support of 5 percent of the Texans in the survey; Green Party candidate Deb Shafto gets 1 percent. And 22 percent of respondents — more than one in five Texans — say they’re undecided about which candidate to support with only seven weeks to go in the fall campaign.

Other state wide races looked similar... the highest anyone got was 43%...

The numbers:

• Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is leading Linda Chavez-Thompson 41 percent to 26 percent. Libertarian Scott Jameson has the support of 5 percent, and the Green Party's Herb Gonzales Jr. has 1 percent. Undecided respondents account for 27 percent.

• Attorney General Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky 43 percent to 26 percent, with Libertarian Jon Roland pulling 5 percent. Undecided voters represent 26 percent of the total.

• Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson leads Democrat Hector Uribe 35 percent to 25 percent. Libertarian James Holdar is at 7 percent, while 34 percent are undecided.

• Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples leads Hank Gilbert 33 percent to 26 percent. Libertarian Rick Donaldson has 8 percent, while 33 percent are undecided.

• In the only open seat on the statewide ballot, Republican David Porter leads Democrat Jeff Weems 33 percent to 25 percent, with Libertarian Roger Gary the favorite of 6 percent and Art Browning of the Green Party attracting 2 percent. Undecided voters make up 34 percent of the total.

Abbott is probably going to get closer to 56-60% when all is said and done on election night, so for him to only be at 43% does show that this poll must have really encouraged peeps to be vague and wishy washy. I find it hard to believe there are so many truly undecided voters.

If you extrapolate out the 39-33 results to the 22% of undecided, you get 47.58% Rick to 40.26% Bill White. That is probably being kind to Bill White though, since if you take the generic ballot Republican versus Democrat and apply it to the remaining undecided vote you get 49.56% Rick to 40.26% Bill White.

A few really bad pieces of news for Bill White are in this poll. Excerpt follows...

In the marquee matchup, White outdoes Perry in urban areas (41-31) but trails him in the suburbs (32-40) and in rural Texas (28-45). Surprisingly, the two are virtually tied in the Houston area (36-35), which was expected to be a stronghold for White, the former Houston mayor. The other metros in the state — D/FW (40-34), San Antonio (42-39) and Austin (46-27) — favor White over Perry by varying degrees. In the rest of the state, Perry has a daunting 47-21 lead over his challenger.

Self-identified Anglo voters favor Perry by a 47-27 margin; African-American voters overwhelmingly favor White, 64-7; and Hispanic/Latino voters give White a slim 34-30 edge. Women are equally divided, giving each candidate 34 percent. Men prefer Perry, 44-33. Men are more likely than women to pick the Libertarian candidate; 7 percent of men do versus 3 percent of women. And more men have made up their minds: Fifteen percent of men are undecided, while 29 percent of women say they haven't yet chosen a candidate.

Out of all of those numbers two things really stand out...

1... Rick and Bill White are tied in Houston... which should be a big strong hold for Bill White... but this does explain why Bill White is heavily running commercials in Houston right now according to my sources...

2... Bill White has a gender gap... people like to fixate on Republicans having a gender gap with women, and that is somewhat true, but Rick and Bill White are tied among women in this poll, while Rick leads by solid double digits among men...

Other things that are bad news for Bill White...

“The downside for White is that Perry is up by 18 points among those who say they are extremely likely to vote. White needs a big turnout among young voters and minorities to be competitive."

The enthusiasm gap... Rick up by 18 among the most likely voters... in a mid term election those are the voters who matter most... it could be that a lot of those so called undecided voters just won't vote because it is not a presidential year...