New poll numbers... scientific and unscientific... important timing...

Now for the final blog before I hop on a flight and head back home with the family for turkey day...

Mr. Sullivan down at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility is running one of those web polls that the campaigns love to hate so much... looks like Rick is running away with it so far (link).

Rick is winning by a lot with the Empower Texans peeps, which is not all that surprising. Medina being high up there is not all that surprising either... Ron Paul's peeps are good at finding and participating in open internet based polls...

That poll is very unscientific and really just shows that Rick has more people who like Michael Q. Sullivan's group and more people who use the internet maybe...

Sullivan also commissioned a real poll... a scientific one... it says that Kay should just stay in the senate and not run for governor (link)...

Texas Republican primary voters believe that Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson should devote herself fulltime to fighting President Obama’s policies for her full term

o We asked the question:

Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: I would prefer that Kay Bailey Hutchinson devote her full attention to the United State Senate fighting Obama’s misguided policies until her term expires in 2012 and not run for Governor.

o Seven-in-ten (69%) of Texas Republican primary voters agree with the statement

o Only one quarter (24%) disagree with the statement

Important timing being that it is right before Thanksgiving and it gives Kay a lot to think about before maybe or maybe not filing next week... this is definitely the sentiment I am hearing not just in Texas but where I have been this week as well... people are asking me "why would Kay want to primary Rick?" As if I answer for her just because I am from Texas...

It is a good question though. Kay has never really developed a solid rationale for challenging Rick other than her supporters said it was her job 4 years ago if she just waited until now...

This poll might indicate that Sullivan is on Rick's team but not officially yet... is he perhaps in on "Operation Intervention" as reported by Jason Embry (link)?... and if he is on his team then she will have an even more up hill battle...

What it looks like to me so far is that Empower Texans will remain neutral so as not to anger people who are for Kay or even Medina but they are also pushing to avoid a messy primary battle.

Texans for Fiscal Responsibility is probably one of the most influential remaining groups that could endorse other than perhaps the Texas Association of Business or the National Rifle Association... In fact the NRA would probably be the crown jewel of almost any Republican primary campaign. I don't know many candidates who have won when their opponents have been endorsed by the NRA. I suspect the NRA will stay neutral as well...

I also can't contemplate a scenario in which a candidate has the pro life groups, the NRA, and the pro business/taxpayer watchdog groups and loses in the Republican primary. So far Rick has the pro life groups nailed down... dog bites man... but those other ones may prove elusive with Kay pushing hard to earn their favor... in fact, I would be shocked if those remaining groups ever endorse even if they do have a preference.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I am getting settled into my new digs and it is looking like it will be pretty difficult to keep up a nice blogging schedule there... but I am back home this weekend for the holiday so I may have a few last blogs this weekend...

To all my great and loyal readers who send me so many emails pushing your sides and to the ones who have emailed to urge me not to quit... thank you and happy Thanksgiving! I will try my best to get back to my regularly scheduled blogs...

Not going to be blogging for a little while...

That opportunity and temporary change of location in my work situation I wrote about two or three weeks ago is here... it looks like I won't be able to blog very much starting today and lasting for an indefinite period of time... I am not sure how long... until I get settled into my new role and location... just like last summer this probably will come to a nice conclusion back in Texas and hopefully I can get back to blogging on a regular basis before March, but right now for the foreseeable future I just won't have the ability to keep up Rick vs. Kay like I would like to...

Rick vs. Kay twitpic comparison...

Rick and Kay both use twitpic to get their photos out to the masses... Rick's twitter is up near 20,000 people while @TeamKay has a little over 2,000... maybe there is a reason for the disparity... behold the differences in tweets...

Kay's drab and dour twitpic from the underwhelming Cheney event...

vs. Rick's twitpic from the RGA with the two political stars of the hour Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie... they look like he just told them a joke... or maybe they just got a kick out of the fact that he actually does his own twitter... "don't you have people for that?"

Another from TeamKay with Karen Hughes... Kay's body language just radiates defeat as Paul Burka would say...

vs. Rick's twitpic from his Norman fund raiser with J.C. Watts and another OU football great... what Republican doesn't love J.C. FRACKING Watts... that guy is a rock star... I wonder why no Barry Switzer in the pic though?

One of Kay at "neutral posture" in College Station which is ironically named given Kay's lack of a strong stand on much of anything...

vs. Rick's group twitpic from Aggieland which made a bunch of women on twitter get all hot and bothered...

Kay giving a speech with her eyes closed to... maybe nobody?... regarding the Prop 11 vote...

vs. Rick tweeting from the stage at RGA... a pic of John Kasich, Tim Pawlenty, some white haired guy, and Bobby Jindal...

Kay speaking in an industrial warehouse with a podium made of boxes...

vs. Rick tweeting a "car quiz" and asking people what kind of vehicle this is...

This is night and day folks... and it is symbolic of the entire campaign... Kay is going through the motions, Rick is having fun and really running an efficient campaign machine... I think Rick's embrace of this twitter stuff coincided with his surge... I am not ready to declare that Rick tweeting is why he is up in the polls... no, I think that is because he is generally more conservative and Kay is more moderate... but there does seem to be some connection on the timeline with Rick's campaign winning over former skeptics and his embrace of social media... maybe a coincidence? Probably, but it does make you wonder...

Haley Barbour's comments about Kay staying and not resigning picked up by the Wall Street Journal...

The "Kay should stay and not resign" theme is not just a Rick campaign talking point... it has gone national...

Oh, Kay

A lot of big names are making noise in the brewing Texas GOP gubernatorial primary battle. Former VP Dick Cheney endorsed Kay Bailey Hutchison at a Houston rally Tuesday, saying Texans know "the difference between a real talker and the real deal." Incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, presumably the target of Mr. Cheney's slight, responded by touting his own endorsement earlier this year from Sarah Palin.

But the words that may have echoed the loudest were those of the man that, if they had their druthers, many Republicans see as the most capable leader in the party. That's former party chief and current Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. In response to a question, Mr. Barbour, who happened to be in Austin for the Republican Governors Association annual meeting, said: "I would just hate to lose Kay Bailey in the Senate. She has been a great senator. I would just hate to lose a great senator like that when we have a fine governor."

Many Texas Republicans probably agree. The party has a history of uncontested primaries, and many Republicans like it that way. Ms. Hutchison herself has acknowledged as much, saying she feared "being perceived as hurting the party." That's why, in offering her bona fides months ago, she vowed to resign from the Senate sometime this month to commit herself fulltime to the governor's race. In what's being viewed as a surprise, she reversed herself this week said she will remain in the senate through Texas's March primary vote, then resign regardless of whether she beats Mr. Perry, whom she once led in the polls but now trails.

Her announcement not only unsettles the plans of several Texas Republicans who had expected to contest for her seat in a special election. Many, frankly, suspect she won't resign her senate seat if she loses to Mr. Perry. People like Mr. Barbour and fellow Texas Sen. John Cornyn, head of the party's senate campaign committee, would certainly give her plenty of cover to nix her pledge and remain in the senate.

Mr. Perry, for his part, has been trying to help Ms. Hutchison make up her mind by sending out his spokesman to blast her for missing a vote this week on one of President Obama's liberal judicial nominations. In truth, Ms. Hutchison's vote wouldn't have made a difference in the 70-29 confirmation of David Hamilton to the federal appeals bench. But the attack obviously is meant to underline a larger point: Ms. Hutchison belongs in Washington, not Austin.

@rickperryfacts... rivals Chuck Norris...

The Texas Tribune wrote up one of my favorite twitterers @rickperryfacts (link). Excerpt follows...

by Brian Thevenot of The Texas Tribune

RickPerryFacts on Twitter

"You're in my sights, Walker, Texas Ranger."

The InterWebs — Rick Perry once ate three 72 oz. steaks in one hour. He spent the first 45 minutes slaughtering cows indiscriminately.

When Chuck Norris kills a ninja, he only takes its hide and some of the meat. When Rich Perry kills a ninja, he uses every part.

Rick Perry can blow bubbles with beef jerky.

“rickperryfacts” in the Twittersphere offers those and hundreds of other fun "facts" on the Texas governor with the penchant for photo ops with firearms and other tough-man gear. The gag is a takeoff on the popular joke-a-sphere feature on Chuck Norris (and steals some of the Norris jokes verbatim). But I’ll have to say the tweeter — whoever he is, and it’s definitely a “he” — has done a decent job on the send-up.

So does he work for Hutchison’s campaign or Perry’s?

Other rickperryfacts gems:

“Rick Perry once breast-fed an injured flamingo back to health. And then boiled it alive.”

“Rick Perry built this city on rock and roll.”

It’s the sort of gag that makes you want to join in. So here goes:

The roof of the new Cowboys stadium was made of Rick Perry’s hair.

Rick Perry ate Washington, D.C., and didn’t even have to burp.

It is hard to say what to make of this... I doubt it is a Rick staffer or a Kay staffer... this is more pop culture than politics and avoids getting involved in all the back and forth on weekly or daily spats between the campaigns which is probably why I like it so much... it just stays on the jokes 24/7...

I also wouldn't be so sure it is definitely a man doing it... I almost get the sense that the person doing it either is mocking Rick slightly or has a crush on him... maybe a bit of both... I think women are probably capable of playfully mocking Rick's penchant for killing animals and that kind of thing...

Rick vs. Kay dividing and damaging party "for years to come"?

The liberal Houston Press makes a good point or two in this lengthy article about Rick and Kay (link). Excerpt follows...

"We now have two reasonably popular Republicans in a bloodbath with each other," publisher Kronberg says. "Everybody who is an active Republican understands the loser's supporters are going to be put into exile; they won't be able to play in politics anymore. So it's going to divide the fund-raising base, it's going to divide the supporter base and it's going to damage the party for years to come."

I think this is partially true, but I also have seen an emerging consensus in recent weeks behind Rick over Kay. People who were on the fence are beginning to choose sides in the hopes of really tearing the party apart in Texas. Look for some big Texas names to back Rick over the next two or three weeks to try to send Kay a signal to quit the race and focus on her job in the senate...