Friday, January 28, 2011

Kay thinks the blogs are depressing....

Do you read On the South Steps? It is a lot better than Rick vs. Kay... much funnier and just as informative... and he is a better writer... probably younger than I am so he has more energy and humor than this old cynical hack...

I like it for Texas knowledge.

You should too... I think he's a Rick insider, but what business do I have speculating on that after all the hilarious speculation about my identity... for the last time I am not Ted Delisi... lol...

I read over there at South Steps about Kay's admission that she reads blogs (link). Excerpt follows...

In explaining herself and her loss in the primary, she made a mistake.  She gave credence to blogs, saying
“I read the blogs and it’s sort of depressing.”

Why empower people like me by insinuating that we have any sort of credibility or clout when it comes to elected officials?  It makes us produce more content with even harsher words for those we talk about.  KBH has admitted that she reads blogs.  In a time when most state and federal offices still print morning clips from major daily newspapers, this admission suggests that she takes extra time out of her day to peruse obscure blogs and that the only thing she heard about online is that she’s a liberal who should garner no votes in a contest versus Perry.

Even long after the campaign, I had Kay staffers using their official federal computers to leave nasty comments here about how they are going to find out who I am and take me down...  her dream team of non Texan staffers were too worried about blogs and not worried enough about the bailout queen's penchant for defending her spending... what was it she said... her earmarking should be "celebrated by all Texans"... what an out of touch thing to say... meanwhile Rick and his peeps basically couldn't stray from the bailout broken record... and it worked for them... every day was another earmark or bailout video from Rick's peeps... while Kay tried painting Rick in 30 different negative lights... some of which were actually positives for Rick... see secession and tea party enthusiasm videos they tried using against him for a good example of that...

Kay was out of touch and she remains out of touch... thankfully for her sake she is not running for senate again...

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Would Dewhurst be vulnerable against John Sharp?

Perry vs. World links to the hated PPP poll with some interesting results (link). Excerpt follows...

PPP polled Texas this week. Jan 14th to 16th, 892 voters, 3.3% +/- sampling error

David Dewhurst 50
Chet Edwards 31

David Dewhurst 49
John Sharp 49

Julian Castro 25
David Dewhurst 53

Elizabeth Ames Jones 44
Chet Edwards 31

Elizabeth Ames Jones 44
Chet Edwards 30

Elizabeth Ames Jones 48
Julian Castro 25

Michael Williams 42
Chet Edwards 31

Michael Williams 42
John Sharp 30

Michael Williams 45
Castro 26

Is there a concern about David Dewhurst's electability? I wouldn't have imagined it but it is possible... Michael Williams demolishes John Sharp...

Any thoughts on what my new blog should be called? I am going to cover the senate race a little bit until I can work through it and figure out which one I support... it's really wide open right now since nobody has bashed anyone else over the head just yet... I want to see what dirt everyone has on everyone else...

Friday, January 14, 2011

Kay is not running in 2012, let the games begin...

I may turn this blog into a senate primary race blog... I don't have a dog in the fight, but I do like most of the candidates in their own ways... I think David Dewhurst may be a front runner with all of his money and his strong record leading the Texas senate but I am not sure he connects with the grassroots very well... Michael Williams is a fan favorite of a lot of people in the blog o sphere and in the conservative game, but he has not been able to raise a lot of money... Roger Williams can raise money, and his last name probably will cut into Michael Williams' support... Elizabeth Ames Jones is a great gal but I am not sure she is ready for prime time... Ted Cruz is rumored to be throwing his name into the hat... and his situation is intriguing although I am not sure he has the gravitas that some of the other electeds have... which could be a good thing if he can capitalize on the outsider tea party thing... Debra Medina is a rumored candidate and she will have some heft because of her relatively strong showing against Rick and Kay... there are plenty of others rumored to be running... Joe Barton... Greg Abbott... but I don't see them making that move... who knows though right... There are others I am sure I am forgetting right now off the top of my head. It seems like the whole world is running... and they may end up facing someone like John Sharp on the other side...

My advice to candidates. Own the base. Own online and social marketing. Own your own image. Be visible. Show that you are credible. Don't do anything RINO peeps do... don't do anything stupid... and define all the others as RINOs disconnected from the base, lacking credibility, and not being ready for prime time. Easy right? As I said... let the games begin...

Monday, January 10, 2011

Rick's approval high heading into session...

Rick has some of his highest poll numbers he has had in years of polling... while Kay continues to feel serious lag from her primary contest nearly a year ago...

The poll is good news for those who want a conservative agenda without some of the more anti immigrant rhetoric we have seen in other states (link). Excerpt follows...

 Republican Gov. Rick Perry enters the 2011 legislative session more popular than he's been in years but not so popular that Texans want him to run for president, according to a new poll commissioned by the American-Statesman and other newspapers.
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, meanwhile, could be vulnerable to defeat in the Republican primary if she runs for re-election next year.
Perry posted his highest job approval rate — 51 percent — and his lowest disapproval rate — 30 percent — in five years, pollster Mickey Blum said.
About half the voters in the state think Texas is headed in the right direction.
"People think Perry's doing the right thing," Blum said. 

I have some problems with the poll but I won't go into them. Maybe you can spot some of those problems if I just blog the results...

Poll questions, results
Editor's note: The poll has a total sample of 819 respondents, whose total results are designated by the "Texas adults" heading in the poll questions below. A total of 716 were registered voters designated by the "Registered voters" header. The total sample has a +/- 3.4 margin of error and the registered voters has a +/- 3.7 margin of error.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Perry is doing as Governor?
Texas adultsRegistered voters
Not sure20%16%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kay Bailey Hutchison is doing as Senator?
Texas adultsRegistered voters
Not sure27%25%

Do you think Texas Gov. Rick Perry should or should not run for President in two years?
Texas adultsRegistered voters
Should not61%63%
Not sure14%12%

Do you think it is fair to voters for a lawmaker in their district to switch parties right after an election or don't you think so?
Texas adultsRegistered voters
Yes, fair17%17%
No, not fair70%72%
Not sure11%10%

Did you vote for Rick Perry, Bill White, or someone else if you voted in the recent November 2010 General Election for Governor?
Registered voters
Someone else---
Not eligible to vote3%
Something came up11%
Chose not to vote14%
Not sure5%

In politics today, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?
Registered voters
Independent leaning Republican16%
Independent leaning Democrat5%
Strictly Independent17%
Something else1%
Not sure3%

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

How did Rick dominate his elections?

Mark P. Jones at Rice University tells the story (link). Excerpt follows...

How Perry dominated his re-election races
Governor won another term with anti-Washington theme, well-honed media tactics 

Perry's re-election and his current "presidential timber" status resulted from the use of a set of bold and unwavering campaign messages along with a campaign strategy that disregarded many traditional campaign practices.
Understanding Perry's 2010 gubernatorial campaign is of considerable value for two principal reasons. First, the campaign was quite successful, with Perry handily defeating both U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, an early favorite, in the March Republican primary and Democrat Bill White in the November general election.
Second, the 2010 Perry campaign provides a possible rough blueprint of what we might expect a Perry campaign for the 2012 Republican Party presidential nomination to look like.

Jones doesn't really explain what he means by well honed media tactics except to say that Rick didn't meet with editorial boards and all of that... but he sort of left out the part where Rick did no direct mail or paid calls as well... and he didn't really say what Rick did do other than the Home Headquarter network... I get the feeling like Jones didn't closely observe the tactics, rather he just read about the strategy. The strategy was basically the messaging + "let's do online and grassroots instead of offline and elites." The tactics were a lot more nuanced and impressive. Day to day, Rick and his team won almost every day in the primary and the general alike. The only days I can remember them not winning were related to national coverage of the Willingham case, that disastrous chicken suit day, and maybe the time when Kay's peeps cut that video of Rick basically sticking to his consistent campaign to make it look like Rick was callous and didn't know there was a recession... also there were a couple of really strong body blows from the print media that skewed all kinds of things and stretched stories to paint Rick in a bad light... there may have been a few other bad days, but generally Rick's team won day after day. Each editorial board victory for Kay or Bill White was actually a victory for Rick...

In terms of tactics, Rick just won almost every day with social networking and the like...

On the messaging, Jones gets it absolutely right. It was a simple Texas versus Washington message.

I just wrote a whole long thing on the speakers race...

Somehow it got deleted... but basically my point of the thousand words or more I wrote was that Straus basically has the speakers race in hand, but it is not over and I am not ready to declare it as being over just yet... the anti Straus folks have a lot going for them, although the Straus team has probably done absolutely everything it can to astroturf... and I use that phrase admiringly... they have done a really good job at making it seem like there is a real online grassroots calling for Straus...

I also said that Straus has a chance to have a really good session and give his supporters cover... if he has a conservative session and passes key things then the primary opposition from the tea party dissipates...

I spent a good 45 minutes writing that blog which was far more developed than this one so to see it just get zapped makes me pretty angry at blogger... and makes me want to take another vacation where I have been since Christmas...