Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Rick standing firm on not tapping the rainy day fund...

Rick and Grover Norquist had a press conference yesterday to reiterate the importance of keeping the rainy day fund as much intact as possible (link). Excerpt follows...

The state's reserve fund is expected to grow to more than $9 billion by 2013.
"Our rainy-day fund is a very valuable asset," Perry said. "It's like insurance ... against a future that continues to be uncertain."
Perry also said he worries that if lawmakers tap the fund now, they'll avoid addressing fiscal problems that may cause future shortfalls.
"If we use the rainy-day fund, we just kick the can down the road," Perry said.
Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, echoed Perry's remarks and praised the governor's fiscal conservatism. He said Republican gains in the November elections "put a restraining order on Keynesian economics," referring to the school of economics that argues that sometimes it makes sense for the government to increase government spending to boost demand during an economic downturn.
Norquist said he's worried that some states are using current budget woes to ignore that message from voters.
"Texas for the last 10 years has served as an example for other states," Norquist said.

On the other side of the aisle, you have moderate some might say RINO Republicans joining liberal Democrats in calling for most or all of the fund to be used...

If you are one of those new legislators pondering which way to go on this, do you go in the direction of the tea party, Americans for Tax Reform, and Rick... or do you go in the direction of the people who just got stomped in November not to mention primaries last March...

Choices... choices... such tough choices...

Michael Williams wins early straw poll...

Michael Williams won an online straw poll run by the Dallas County Republican Party... (link).

I also hear from peeps who are in the know in Dallas that Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams really blew the others out of the water... and this was even so when Lt. Governor David Dewhurst was initially in the ballot...

I also think it is interesting that they said they went through the votes and took out duplicates, including some from "family members"... LOL... someone's family member was on there voting multiple times according to Dallas County GOP Chairman Jonathan Neerman...

Michael Williams with his tea party support and grassroots cache is clearly the top candidate of "the rest" who aren't named Dewhurst... Dewhurst is in a pretty weak spot though not even coming near 40% let alone 50% in early polls...

David Dewhurst has many similarities to Kay... both can say they are conservative and point to one thing or another to prove it... both have served for many years and done some very good things... yet both are considered RINO style politicians at the end of the day when you talk to the grassroots about them... both have risen very high and become very wealthy... both are not good at firing up the crowd when giving a speech...

I think David Dewhurst is in an okay position right now in that he can finish this legislative session strong and prove his conservative credentials... but at the same time he has a long record that can be picked apart the same way Kay had a long record that Rick's peeps picked apart... she might say unfairly so... any and every little thing will be scrutinized in a big nasty primary fight...

In some ways I agree with Perry vs. World that Dewhurst may not even run... he may look out and realize he will probably get clobbered for his quirky eccentricities, his enormous wealth... when is Dewhurst going to release his taxes... what is he hiding, his uninspiring rhetorical style, and his less than perfect record with the strong conservative grassroots who dominate Republican primaries... would he really want to deal with all of that and end his political career the same way that Kay did... or does he think his money and strong name identification will overcome all the other candidates... and then overcome the candidate who ends up in a run off with him... does he think his record is truly strong enough... that he can run the same campaign Rick ran in 2010... kind of a "Texas is good, Rick is responsible for that, and if you disagree you must hate Texas...."

As for Tom Leppert... that guy is really having a bad start to his race... I don't really hear from Roger Williams much any more after he went fast and furious two years ago... maybe he is just raising money in private meetings if so that will look good in a few weeks when the numbers come out... Elizabeth Ames Jones had a big tour around the state but nobody bothered to show up and her entire rationale for running seems to be that she is a woman and we need another woman to replace Kay... Ted Cruz is doing a lot of the right things appearing at sizable events almost every night and it will be interesting to see how much money he can raise and whether peeps actually believe someone who has never been elected to anything has earned the trust to go to Washington and be one of two senators from Texas... I think the rumors of Craig James jumping in are fascinating... he is hated by Texas Tech peeps and has some baggage from his SMU days he might not want coming out...

Michael Williams is clearly doing something right if he is winning prominent straw polls but I think he may not hit his stride until he is actually out of the Rail Road Commission and into full time campaign mode...

Endorsements seem to be all over the map... debates are going to be muddled with too many candidates... this race might be won or  lost based on nasty negative attacks, opposition research, and gaffes...

Speaking of gaffes... someone may have made a gaffe... Michael Williams' camp seems to think that calling for a Constitutional Convention is an error that will leave our rights vulnerable to ACORN style organizing and whims of the moment... while Dewhurst and Cruz have both spoken out for a Constitutional Convention to re write the document that has served the United States very well for well over 200 years and only been amended a couple dozen times...

I see the point of a Constitutional Convention, because it would allow states to rapidly change the Constitution for the better... but it would also allow them to rapidly change certain other things for the worse... it is not like the normal amendment process, it would streamline things... you could easily see states making deals with other states the way they do in Congress... you scratch my back... I will scratch your back... it is an idea that has never been done in our nation's history with the exception of the first one at the end of the 18th century and the other one that happened at the open of the Civil War in the south...

I would not feel all that comfortable about supporting a Constitutional Convention unless we have a strong and popular Republican president who could guide the public debate... unless the media play it more down the middle some day... and unless we had strong supermajorities of Republicans not just in Congress but running a supermajority of states as well... and even then who knows what people might do... I prefer the slow process even if it does mean we don't get important things added...

Monday, March 7, 2011

Utah senator Mike Lee endorses Ted Cruz...

Both were former law clerks and both are young... Mike Lee is a new senator from Utah, and he is endorsing his friend Ted Cruz (link). Excerpt follows...
Senator Mike Lee is throwing his support in the Texas US Senate race to Ted Cruz. In this US Senate race, Cruz is up against another Tea Party favorite, Michael Williams.
Lee is one of just four members of the Senate Tea Party Caucus and is already becoming one of the popular republicans in the Senate. He has made a name for himself after defeating establishment incumbent Bob Bennett for the senate seat with the backing of the Tea Party. 
There are already a few high profile endorsements in this race from peeps like George H.W. Bush... which don't necessarily mean much to Texas Republican primary voters if recent history is any indication... I think the only endorsement that really did much in the Rick vs. Kay match up was the Palin endorsement of Rick...

Dick Cheney's endorsement of Kay... the Bushes endorsing Kay... Karl Rove and Karen Hughes working for Kay... none of that especially mattered...

Mike Lee is a new senator but he is known for being a tea party guy who took down an establishment incumbent... I think this endorsement might mean more if it were more ideological or philosophical and if the race were more black and white between two prominent politicians rather than just a buddy from a Supreme Court clerkship endorsing another drinking buddy from Washington.

Where is Ron Paul? Where is Jim DeMint?

Where is Rick?

Where is Sarah Palin?

What about Big John Cornyn and Kay?

It will be interesting to see if they stay completely neutral the whole time or if some of these prominent peeps tip off the candidate they support even just subtly...

Rainy Day fund... Rick is against using it... Susan Combs, Jim Pitts are for it...

Did these peeps not learn anything from the year 2010? Voters actually want cuts to government... tapping the rainy day fund is the easy way out... it may be sprinkling and even raining in Texas, but it's not really storming right now... yet Susan Combs our Comptroller wants to tap the rainy day fund... and so does the budget go to guy in the House Rep Pitts....

Meanwhile Rick is on record opposing using the rainy day fund... whether Rick gets his way or Combs and Pitts get their way, there will still be cuts... and some people will still be upset about those cuts either way... but with Rick's way, we shrink government and preserve the rainy day fund for a real emergency... with Susan Combs' way or Jim Pitts' way we shrink government less and don't exactly preserve the rainy day fund for the future...

Even the liberal Texas Observer sees what is going on here as a fight for what the tea party asked for in the 2010 elections (link). Excerpt follows...

The staunch fiscal folks may not have had such a great day.
Thursday morning, several GOP leaders on the Appropriations Committee pushed for bringing more dollars into the budget, rather than trying to remedy the state's $27 billion shortfall through cuts to state agencies and services. Increased revenue isn't popular with the "Tea Party" philosophy that government spending is largely wasteful. The committee discussion went against the "cuts-only" approach that many hard-line conservatives have promoted, including Gov. Rick Perry.
[SNIP]
But with one of the most conservative Texas Legislatures in recent memory, featuring a two-thirds Republican majority in the House, many expected hard-line social and fiscal policies: anti-abortion bills along side efforts to cut government programs, for instance. Bu while the social conservative bills are moving forward at quite a clip, there's clearly a softer stance on such fiscal policies. The budget cuts will undoubtedly be widespread and painful, but at least a vocal GOP contingent is working to minimize some of them. 
I'm not sure that's exactly what the Tea Party had in mind. 

It seems like a pretty easy choice to me... keep hands off the rainy day fund, cut spending, and let's roll... be fiscal conservatives or risk backsliding into parity with Democrats...