Flurry of new polls sez Rick is the top dog...

Rick is the new front runner nationally... which is a scary place to be... but a good place to be as well... you can bet a pretty penny the attacks will only amplify against Rick from all corners... including some on not really the far right so much as the "aligned with another candidate" right.

Gallup is the gold standard, and they have Rick truly surging (link). Excerpt follows...

Shortly after announcing his official candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans' current favorite for their party's 2012 presidential nomination. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next, at 17%.

The Daily Caller also has Rick surging this week (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry now leads the field in all five categories polled this month: first choice, most electable, second choice, best at dealing with the economy, and best at keeping Washington spending under control — often by a large margin.
Perry is the top choice for 29.3 percent of Republicans, handily trouncing Michele Bachmann’s 17.0 percent and Mitt Romney’s 11.1 percent.
But Perry has not just captured the hearts of Republicans; he has also captured the minds of those who are pragmatically looking not just for a nominee they like, but for one who can beat President Barack Obama. He is also considered far and away the most electable, with 46.5 percent naming him the most viable candidate to beat the incumbent president. Romney takes just 19.8 percent of the vote in this category, a sharp drop from July, when he led in this category with 33.5 percent. Michele Bachmann’s share has dropped to just 9.6 percent, falling precipitously from 21.1 percent in July.
That’s particularly problematic for Romney.

Rick as a second pick beats everyone else's first pick. 

PPP is one I hate... they oversample Democrats and do a really poor job in Texas in particular... but they also have Rick surging in Iowa and nationally (link). Excerpt follows...

In PPP's first national poll since Rick Perry's official entry into the Presidential race he's jumped out to a double digit advantage. Perry's at 33% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Michele Bachmann, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Herman Cain and Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 3% for Jon Huntsman.

Conservative voters have been looking for a candidate that they can rally around and Perry's filling that role. Romney continues to lead with the small portion of voters describing themselves as moderates at 27% t0 20% for Bachmann and 15% for Perry. But Perry gets stronger and stronger as you move across the ideological spectrum. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Perry leads by 15 points with 38% to Romney's 23% and Bachmann's 11%. And with 'very conservative' voters the advantage expands to 22 points with him at 40% to 18% for Bachmann and 14% for Romney.

[SNIP] 

Perry also leads head to heads with both Romney (52-36) and Bachmann (56-26). In the match up with Romney Perry picks up Bachmann supporters (47-37), Cain supporters (61-29), Paul supporters (43-28), and Santorum supporters (68-21). Romney gets Gingrich supporters (51-35) and Huntsman supporters (76-24).

In the match up with Bachmann Perry wins Cain supporters (49-38), Gingrich supporters (52-32), Paul supporters (44-28), and Romney supporters (53-20). Huntsman supporters (24-21 for Bachmann) and Santorum supporters (44-43 for Perry) split pretty evenly. 

Rick looks like he may be the guy... and in match ups with Obama he is usually about neck and neck... although Rick was actually leading among independents... and Rick seems to do better among likely voters than just casual registered voters...

The game plan now might be to keep Rick on a slow and steady pace. Don't overexpose him. Fight back all the smears and lies from the left and right alike.

A big national lead is important, but a small lead in Iowa can quickly turn into a 4th place finish in the Iowa Caucuses. New Hampshire also remains an up hill climb for Rick, although his fiscal message he stuck with during the 2010 election in Texas could play very well there. South Carolina is likely his for the taking. Florida may be close, but Rick should do well with voters eager for jobs and an improved economy. Nevada, the same....

A few big hurdles are on the way. Debates. The expectations on Rick will be extremely high to perform well at the upcoming forums and debates. He may be underestimated since he didn't debate Bill White, but people falsely claiming off hand that "Rick never debated in 2010" are just not telling the truth... he debated twice in the primary and did well enough to put Kay away by 20+ percentage points and avoid a runoff...

The final big hurdle is money. Rick needs to raise a lot of money and have a lot of money in the bank... he needs to get his super PAC operations in order. He still has a lot of staff to hire in various states and back home in Texas, and he still has a lot of television commercials to produce and air. Those take money. Money will be a big driver of this race, and if Rick can show a solid number after this quarter in which he got a late start he could make it a two person race with Romney... if he does that he wins the nomination even with occasional minor gaffes and errors and missteps... it would just be too difficult for anyone else to overcome that. Still... Romney will have more money than Rick and will likely decide soon to start attacking... but Rick has withstood a lot of money in negative ads spent against him over the years and done just fine...

Rick and Al Gore...

Texas political reporter R.G. Ratcliffe sort of sets the record straight on Al Gore (link). Excerpt follows...

Rick Perry was NEVER Al Gore’s Texas 1988 chairman
Posted on August 22, 2011 by rgratcliffe

OK, whack on Republican Gov. Rick Perry in his presidential campaign for having once been a Democrat.
Whack on Rick Perry for endorsing Al Gore in his 1988 presidential run.
But would everyone quit saying he was Gore’s state chairman, because it is simply not true.
Gore in 1988 was viewed as the Southern conservative alternative to Jesse Jackson and Michael Dukakis. The leaders of the Gore campaign in Texas were House Speaker Gib Lewis, Democratic Chairman Bob Slagle and Lt. Gov. Bill Hobby.
On Jan. 5, 1988, Gib brought Gore to Austin to receive the endorsement of 27 state legislators. One of them was Rick Perry. If Perry even spoke that day, his words were so lame that they did not get quoted in news stories. In the Houston Chronicle and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Perry was just listed in alphabetical order as one of the lawmakers backing Gore.
I have tried to find a news release from the event to see if there was any possibility that it said something like: Legislative co-chairs for Gore. But I have not found anything like that. So I recently asked an Austin political consultant who was deep into the Gore campaign that year if Perry was chairman. He told me no. He said Perry did the news conference and then a one-day endorsement fly-around of some of the legislators. And that was it.
But the Texas politician who was a state presidential campaign chairman that year was Democrat John Sharp, who was backing Dukakis. In his 1998 lieutenant governor’s race against Perry, Sharp started telling people Perry was Gore’s campaign chairman. Sharp’s campaign in media accounts started off calling Perry vice-chairman of Gore’s campaign, then co-chairman and finally chairman. Perry and his campaign responded to his backing of Gore, but never repudiated the title.
Here is the simple truth. Rick Perry endorsed Al Gore in an effort to suck up to Speaker Gib Lewis in hopes of gaining a House leadership position in the 1989 Legislature. It didn’t happen. Then in the interim afterward, when the Calendars Committee chairman resigned, Perry wanted that position. Gib snubbed him and gave it to speaker pro tem Hugo Berlanga. About 10 days later, Perry switched parties and said he likely would run against Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower.
From beginning to end, it was pure political opportunism. If you want to criticize Perry, criticize him for that. But he was never Al Gore’s Texas chairman.

I think a little more context is in order... it was pro gun pro life Southerner Al Gore versus far left liberals like Gephardt, Dukakis, and others... endorsing Al Gore was ironically a way for Rick to prove he was a conservative Democrat and not the new breed of very liberal Democrats...

You might even look at it and conclude that Rick decided when Dukakis won the 1988 nomination that liberals had won the internal battle there was no more hope of reforming his party... Democrats were not worth saving or reforming or returning to their Jeffersonian roots...

So he became a Republican... and the rest is history...

More recommended reading on the Al Gore thing (link). Excerpt follows...

Any discussion of the governor's political past should take into account the following context. First, in the early 1980s in rural West Texas, most if not all routes to Austin ran through the Democratic Party, a party divided into liberal and conservative factions. Second, in 1984, the Democratic Party held more than three-quarters of the seats in the Texas House, which in turn was run by a speaker (Gib Lewis of Fort Worth, 1983-93) from the party's conservative faction. Third, Perry's voting record on the House floor placed him in the conservative wing of the conservative faction of the Texas Democratic Party. Fourth, during Perry's short tenure in the House, the space within the Texas Democratic Party for politicians with conservative ideological profiles such as Perry's was rapidly disappearing. In the end, given Perry's conservative ideological position and the evolving nature of partisan politics in Texas, by 1989 Perry had but two choices if he wished to pursue a career as an elected official in Texas: change his political beliefs or change his party. He opted for the latter.

Here is another good read (link). Excerpt follows...

As the Texas Democratic party was slowly taken over by that liberal movement emanating from Austin and increasingly, Houston, millions of conservative Texas Democrats changed parties to remain true to their conservative beliefs. Rather than being cause to question Perry's authenticity, his switch is a testament to the solidity of his conservative principles. As I and so many other Southerners are fond of saying, "We didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Party left us," which is exactly what happened to Rick Perry.

The other thing to remember is that Rick also said he felt Al Gore had "gone to hell" since the 1980s...





I know this "former Democrat" thing must be really baffling for a lot of people outside of Texas... or outside of southern states... but there are still a number of conservative Democrats in the southern states although that number is rapidly dwindling...


If you know anything about Texas politics, you know that former GOP presidential candidate Phil Gramm who is so hated by the left was also a Democrat at one point in his life... 


Ronald Reagan was also a Democrat who loved FDR until somewhat late into his life... Rick switched to the Republican side before Texas really switched several years later... in fact everyone thinks of Texas as this GOP bastion for so long, but Republicans still did not control the Texas legislature until 2003...


When I see the stuff about "Al Gore's campaign manager" I usually just tune out the person saying it because they are obviously not very well versed in recent political history... and if I were to come up with a venn diagram of the people who say that line and some of Ron Paul's nuttier conspiracy theorists, it would look like just one circle... it is the exact same people pushing the Al Gore stuff... 


Read these things. Ask some Texans not affiliated with Ron Paul and not under the age of about 35 or 40 about the old days in Texas politics and you'll realize... again... ironically that Rick supporting Al Gore was an attempt to prove his conservative bona fides... and having once been a Democrat likely makes him a stronger not weaker candidate... 

Rick's masterful entry into the 2012 presidential race...

Rick's entry into the presidential race was truly amazing. Bachmann's win in Iowa's straw poll was rendered irrelevant. Then Rick schooled Bachmann on her own turf in Waterloo... some are already calling it her "Waterloo" as in her big folly of arrogance that caused her to fall. Politico tells the story (link). Excerpt follows...

 But the contrast that may lift Perry and undermine Bachmann in their high stakes battle for Iowa had less to do with what they said than how they said it — and what they did before and after speaking.
Perry arrived early, as did former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. The Texas governor let a media throng grow and dissolve before working his way across the room to sit at table after table, shake hand after hand, pose for photographs and listen politely to a windy Abraham Lincoln impersonator, paying respect to a state that expects candidates, no matter their fame, to be accessible.
But Bachmann campaigned like a celebrity. And the event highlighted the brittle, presidential-style cocoon that has become her campaign’s signature: a routine of late entries, unexplained absences, quick exits, sharp-elbowed handlers with matching lapel pins, and pre-selected questioners.
She camped out in her bus, parked on the street in front of a nearby Ramada Hotel, until it was time to take the stage. Even after a local official’s introduction, Bachmann was nowhere to be found. It was not until a second staffer assured her that the lighting had been changed and a second introduction piped over the loudspeakers that she entered the former dance hall here. By the time she made her big entrance to bright lights and blaring music, the crowd seemed puzzled.
Bachmann’s stump speech drew mostly polite applause until she closed by giving a large apple pie to “the oldest mother in the room” — a local centenarian.
Then she stayed on stage, signing T-shirts from above, which her staff then distributed to a steady but not overwhelming crowd.
Finally, she swept through what was by then an empty ballroom behind a phalanx of six aides who shielded her from reporters and the handful of Iowans who remained.
“She kept us waiting, she was not here mixing — then she was talking about what a great evening it was. How do you know? You just got here,” said Karen Vanderkrol, of Hudson, Iowa, who said she agreed with the substance of Bachmann’s speech, but that one line in particular rang false: “I am a real person.”
“She can say she’s real and part of the people, but that’s not what we do,” Vanderkrol said of the congresswoman’s behavior.
Several other attendees seemed to leave similarly disappointed.

Ouch for Bachmann... Bachmann spent all of that money and put in all of that work almost for nothing...

Perry's peeps put out this masterful video which is exactly the right tone and tenor... not too overboard like Tim Pawlenty's videos, but not boring either... just very well done...

Then Rick seemed to stick his foot in his mouth by criticizing Ben Bernanke extremely strongly... but my hunch is that this Bernanke moment is a big parallel to the secession stuff.

On both issues, Rick never said what people want to believe he said... he certainly never advocated for secession and never said Bernanke was treasonous... but the impact is still there... Rick is scoring major points with voters for speaking bluntly on an issue they agree with... that Bernanke is a bad fed chairman and the fed is printing too much money...

Then Ed Schultz took Rick's comments about debt being a black cloud not just out of context but just plain lied about what Rick meant by "black cloud." Insinuating racism, MSNBC threatened to dominate the news all week before I am sure Obama's peeps forced Ed Schultz to apologize to make it go away so they could get back to attacking Rick unfairly in other ways (link)...



These unfair criticisms of Rick have caused peeps to rally to his defense... even peeps who don't support him necessarily yet...

On the economy, the MSM and liberal bloggers are failing to assail the unassailable... and speaking of peeps who don't even support Rick... even bloggers supporting other candidates have come to the defense of the Texas miracle... for example Political Math... the guy who did those videos with the pennies I think... has this detailed blog about how the left is not being truthful about Texas while Rick is being modest if anything (link)...

My advice to anti-Perry advocates is this: Give up talking about Texas jobs. Texas is an incredible outlier among the states when it comes to jobs. Not only are they creating them, they're creating ones with higher wages.

What has all of this wrought so far? Rasmussen has Rick winning by double digits (link)... which should trouble all the other candidates yes... but I would be troubled by these numbers if I am Rick's peeps... if it gets down to a single digit race next week then suddenly Rick has stalled and lost momentum and all of that... and people like to pounce when a candidate slips a little in the polls... and the press will try to blame his Bernanke comments or the fact that more peeps have gotten to see the "real" Rick... which is all pretty shoddy and unfair but that is how it goes... even if a different pollster with completely different methodology comes out and shows Rick down by 5 points or 7 points the story might be that Rick is fading already which would not likely be true...

It is interesting to see Rick be attacked from almost every side... some on the right are fringing themselves by suggesting Rick is some kind of pro shariah candidate or that miracle vaccines are suddenly bad (link)... all while the left works itself into a tizzy about Rick being a Dominionist crazy right winger who hates science and progress... they need to get their stories straight because the stories do not match up...

Really I think Rick has seized Romney's inevitability from him... and seized Bachmann's thunder from her... the next big event will be the September 7 debate... in the meantime Rick has less than a few weeks to hone his message and raise a ton of money... If Rick can post a solid fundraising number at the end of this quarter while withstanding unfair attacks from all sides he probably solidifies support and cruises to a victory in the caucuses and primaries.

He may not be perfect to all GOP voters, but he is as close as it gets to the vast majority of them. You want a strong social conservative who is pro life and pro 2nd amendment? Check, check and check. You want a strong fiscal conservative with a strong record on job growth and keeping spending, debt, and taxes in check? Check, check, check, and check. You want a national security conservative who may be wary of some of our adventures but certainly is not suicidal or isolationist... check and check...

Rick has all the check boxes covered... he looks the part... he gives one hell of a speech... he is a fighter which is what voters want... he drives Obama and his cadre of peeps insane...

Rick has entered the race masterfully thus far... although I do believe he can perfect his stump speech and not have to read off the page... and I do believe he will have to have a much more extensive online operation out there fighting misinformation from all sides and promoting his side of the story.

Is it just me, or has the MSM already gone a little crazy over the possibility of Rick running?

They've already lost their marbles. Prepare for this to get even uglier as it becomes obvious that Obama is unelectable due to the economy and Rick with all of those amazing Texas job creation statistics is the best person to take the message of economic renewal to the people.

The MSM hyperbole over Rick may actually be the death knell for their credibility and relevance once and for all...  Rick dealt with the same thing in Texas and basically ran around them rather than through them.. marginalizing the media in Texas in a big way... he won big... can he replicate the same strategy at the national level? It will be a lot more difficult, but Rick will have more online allies than McCain had in 2008 if he can win the nomination...

Kay's peeps trying to exact revenge for their shameful primary loss?

Jennifer Sarver who worked on Kay's failed 2010 campaign against Rick has some words of advice on how to communicate in a campaign...



Now Sarver has turned her attention to attacking Rick's higher education reforms (link)... which has raised the ire of Rick's allies... Peggy Venable of the influential Americans for Prosperity posted about Jennifer...

Jennifer Sarver is chair of the Texas Exes Public Relations Committee and spokeswoman for the Texas Coalition for Excellence in Higher Education...and she is trashing Vedder and higher education reformers?  Sounds like she needs a little schooling and UT needs some new public relations help.

It isn't just Jennifer Sarver. It is several former Kay peeps, issuing anti Rick missives... Others have also noted the strangeness of former Kay peeps leading this attack on Rick... it just feels like a personal vendetta at this point instead of a real policy difference of opinion (link). Excerpt follows...

The Coalition for Higher Excellence in Higher Education – a group that supports higher education reform ideas offered by the state’s university presidents and chancellors and has expressed concerns with some higher education reform ideas offered from outside academia – fired a rhetorical howitzer at Gov. Rick Perry yesterday. Political observers in Texas are left wondering why the organization chose to attack Perry by name and how this will play out.
The coalition’s main communications consultants used to work for U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and former president George W. Bush, two elected officials whose political interests have not always aligned perfectly with those of Perry.

[SNIP]

When asked about the statement attacking Perry by name and why it was issued, Shussler replied, “The statement was a response from the Coalition, which includes more than 200 leading Texans, including many supporters of Governor Perry, who are concerned about the negative impact of some of his higher education proposals.”
Some grassroots conservatives are troubled. “I know that Perry’s uncompromising commitment to fiscal and social conservatism doesn’t always sit well with some of the more moderate members of the Republican Party,” said State Republican Executive Committee member Jason Moore, a talk radio talk show host on KWEL in Midland. “But I’m surprised that some of the business leaders who have joined this coalition would condone these kinds of cheap shots at Perry.”
Most of the coalition’s press releases are distributed by Jenifer Sarver, who used to work on Hutchison’s staff. Sarver is chief of staff to Karen Hughes, who used to work for Gov. and later President George W. Bush. Both currently work at the Austin office of Burson-Marsteller.
Willeford said that the Burson-Marsteller firm is a paid consultant to the coalition. “As far as what is put out by the coalition and what is posted on our website, all that goes through our operating committee,” she said.

[SNIP]

But some Republican activists hope that this coalition will avoid messages that might be perceived as political attacks. “I sure hope that this coalition doesn’t allow former staffers for Hutchison and Bush to use the organization to attack Perry personally by name or harm his presidential chances in any way,” said Toby Marie Walker, a tea party activist in Waco, Texas. “Given the problems President Obama has created for our nation, the stakes are too high for that.” 

More recently, pork barrel queen Kay seemed to take a swipe at Rick basically saying she basically has no plans to endorse him... saying it in a very petty and spiteful way which is the norm for Kay these days (link).

What a nightmare this whole thing must be for Kay... not only was she supposed to cruise to an easy victory over Rick she ended up losing by 20 something points... and now he is intrade's most likely candidate to be the Republican nominee surpassing Mitt Romney on that betting market (link).

For the peeps who are already putting slogans about Rick being 4 more years of Bush on bumper stickers... remember that Karen Hughes was also among Bush's big 3... Rick and W. seem to get along well personally but there is a huge chasm in the camps of the two candidates... with ironically... Rick the former Democrat being the more principled and conservative of the two... and hiring more conservative peeps around him as well as which matters tremendously when it comes to policy making...

More than two years ago Rick made an obvious joke about Texans wanting to leave the union... it is newsworthy now?

Texans are a very independent group... and Rick has still never advocated for secession... but something that was posted and seen by many tens of thousands of people more than two years ago online has popped up again as new news in the media's drive to sensationalistically "vet" Rick (link). Excerpt follows...

well-known tech blogger Robert Scoble told The Texas Tribune on Tuesday that he remembers the meeting with Perry in the governor’s office in 2009. It's clear from interviews, blogs and Twitter postings that the remarks were recorded nearly a month before the April Tea Party gathering, which helped launch Perry’s successful 2010 re-election effort.
In the meeting, Perry can be heard speaking to the group of tech bloggers about the founding of Texas in 1836. A slideshow shows Perry pointing to a painting of the dramatic fall of the Alamo, artifacts in his office and the “Come and Take It” logo on his own boots.
Texans have a “different feeling about independence,” Perry told the group.
“When we came into the nation in 1845, we were a republic, we were a stand-alone nation,” the governor can be heard saying. “And one of the deals was, we can leave anytime we want. So we’re kind of thinking about that again.”
The bloggers erupted in laughter after the remarks, and the slideshow was posted under the headline “Texas Governor Rick Perry jokes about Texas leaving the United States.”

One of the tech bloggers from California I believe... perhaps Robert Scoble himself... in the recording even suggested that he would move to Texas if it became its own country... amid the robust laughter...

Heck you can buy "SECEDE" t-shirts and bumper on the drunkest part of 6th Street in Austin. For Texans it has nothing to do with George Wallace or the Deep South type of thinking and everything to do with our state's unique history... Texas was its own country at one point you see... with its own president... and its own ambassadors to other nations... and Texas is the only state to enter the United States via treaty rather than annexation...

...And given that Texas provides a disproportionate amount of jobs, tax dollars, military servicemen, oil, NFL football players, and other exports to the rest of the nation, sometimes it seems like Texas could still be its own country... and taking away the prospect of a violent Civil War Texas very well might be a lot better off as an independent nation with a continued strong affiliation with but independence from the rest of America... for Texans and non Texans the whole "secede" thing is sort of a larger than life mythology based in actual history... it is a shirt that tourists buy because they think it is funny... and a harmless line bloggers loudly laugh about because it is funny...

In the end Rick still never advocated secession... which actually irritates some of the more hard core secessionist peeps who wanted him to just sign an executive order making it happen... Ron Paul did advocate secession though... in a video defending Rick, Ron Paul went all in on secession. Ron Paul correctly tells the camera that Rick didn't call for secession... but then Ron Paul goes on to say how Texas can and likely should secede and how it is an important Constitutional principle and check on government in favor of liberty...



I guess it says a lot about the viability of the respective candidates that Ron Paul actually calling for secession isn't newsworthy while Rick obviously joking about others wanting secession gets the headlines... yet if Ron Paul places in the top few in Iowa's straw poll this Saturday will they start "vetting" him or do they just not even know how to handle him? I wouldn't likely vote for Ron Paul for president in a primary, and especially not this year, but I could see quite a lot of unfair, cliched and lazy media "vetting" if he were to become a top tier candidate with a strong finish as the polls currently show he will have... you have to wonder if Ron Paul actually talking up secession would be part of that?

Wow... some epic and not to epic videos in support of Rick... all from outside groups...

This one is from Students 4 Perry and it is the most compelling and on message...

"IT'S TIME FOR RICK PERRY"   

This one is from Vets for Perry and is good enough I guess... it featured veteran and Texas lawmaker Jerry Patterson talking up Rick... the Veterans for Perry have a couple of other videos too promoting Rick's record as a veteran...

"Jerry Patterson: a Veteran for Rick Perry"   

Time for Rick Perry is okay... seems a little off somehow actually with some of this random b roll... also their use of the speech and clips of the crowd are out of sync and just awkward...

"It's Time for Perry"   

This one is apparently actually on television in Iowa on Fox News...

"What if? Rick Perry for President 2012"   

There are new videos popping up every couple of days it seems... and now... with the Response day or prayer and fasting going well (link) and Rick possibly declaring in South Carolina at the RedState.com convention (link)... or maybe just declaring to declare... maybe we will see some David Weeks productions with Rick actually in them actually speaking to the American people in his own voice...

Everything you ever need to know about Rick...

Matthew Dowd who by all accounts doesn't know Rick very well but is well known for his Bush involvement wrote a thing I have seen called "everything you need to know about Rick Perry."

Okay so what is it he has to say (link). Excerpt follows...

Having observed and known the governor, both as a Democrat and as a Republican, through 13 election cycles, I offer a primer on Perry in five key points:

1. He is an extremely astute politician with a keen sense of where voters are, and he has great instincts on message. Perry has ruthless discipline and communication. They say in politics, “Don’t let your boot off an opponent’s neck till Election Day.” Perry doesn’t take his boot off till a year after the votes have been counted and the opponent has faded into oblivion. He is actually a better campaigner than George W. Bush (Perry’s predecessor as Texas governor) was when he first entered the national scene.

1. Perry has surrounded himself with a very loyal staff. His aides believe in him, and he in them. He is involved in campaign decisions, but he delegates well and doesn't stop being loyal because a mistake might be made. This is a huge advantage in the ebb and flow of presidential campaigns. 

1. His statements related to possible Texas secession actually helped him in his recent race in 2010, and will help him in a national campaign in the Republican primaries and caucuses.  In an environment where Republican voters despise the federal government, anti-Washington rhetoric is music to their ears.   Conversely, this talk will hurt him in a general-election race. Moderate voters in the Midwest will see it as off-putting. 

1. Although he has run many times for both district and statewide office in Texas, Perry has never been fully vetted by the media. He underwent some scrutiny in his races for governor, but he has never endured the full-court press that happens in a presidential race. What the media discovers will not be as important as how he and the campaign handle the intense spotlight for the first time. Perry and some of his staffers are known to have thin skins. They will need to grow calluses if they are to succeed in the show. 

1. Perry has never lost a race. While many immediately list this as a positive (and it is laudable and suggests huge talent), losing at some point in your career makes you better when the inevitable problems hit. I have learned more from my losses in life and politics than from my victories. It’s the losses that really cause self-reflection and growth. President Obama and former Presidents Bush (father and son), Clinton, Reagan, and Nixon learned enormous amounts from setbacks in their political careers, and those losses eventually helped them win the White House. We know Perry can win. The real question is: Can he suffer defeat and rise to the next battle?

Umm... really? That is all we need to know about Rick?

I would say that some of these are sort of accurate but could apply to any candidate... and the one about Rick not being vetted? What planet is this guy on? I guess I understand the feeling that Rick will get ambushed on random trivia questions if and when he goes to Iowa or New Hampshire, but Rick is likely the most vetted of all the possible candidates including the current resident of the White House... he is constantly and often unfairly vetted... they make things up... they imagine scenarios... they exaggerate and sensationalize... they cover the same ground again and again... in his various campaigns every accusation has been lobbed at him you could think of... he has been vetted by opposition researchers affiliated with Kay, with Tony Sanchez, with Steve Mostyn, with Chris Bell... everyone has looked into every nook and cranny of Rick's life and finances... there aren't a lot of surprises.

If Dowd means that Rick hasn't faced the press conference gauntlet that is also pretty dubious... although maybe he can make the point that Rick must hone a new national message that he can stay on and not get tripped up... and clarify and tighten some of his 10th Amendment talk for example so he doesn't run into trouble with the pro life peeps and anti gay marriage peeps again... all while still enticing those libertarian kinds of peeps with the federalist argument. Right now some of that is a little unexplained and hard to follow...

As far as the thin skin argument goes I have not noticed that per se with most of them but definitely with some... but no more than any other staffer or consultant or advisor out there for any candidate... if anything Rick has pretty thick skin... especially compared to many of the opponents he has faced... he seems to be able to rattle his opponents more than they rattle him in other words...

One thing about the thin skin argument is that none of his peeps can fire back and say "no we don't" because that proves the point... so I will say it for them... it is not really a unique attribute of Rick or his peeps. Maybe Dowd means that they hold grudges and exact their revenge on peeps who cross them... and who knows maybe there is some of that but again no more than any other political operation out there, and I really don't understand the thin skin argument from my observations over the decades.

If someone set out to write "everything you need to know about Rick" I definitely don't think that would be the authoritative list no offense to Matt Dowd...