PPP poll has Rick 40%, Kay 31%, and Medina 20%...

The liberal PPP out of North Carolina has a new poll that shows the race going to a run off (link). Excerpt follows...

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Perry still favored

Debra Medina is fading in the Texas Republican race for Governor, and it continues to look like the contest is headed for a runoff where Rick Perry will be a strong favorite over Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Perry leads with 40% to 31% for Hutchison and 20% for Medina. Compared to PPP's look at the race two weeks ago Perry has gained a point, Hutchison has gone up three, and Medina's standing has declined by four.

Unless Perry wins the remaining undecideds by an overwhelming margin and/or peels off more of Medina's support it looks like he won't get to the 50% needed for an outright victory next week. But he leads Hutchison 52-35 in a potential runoff thanks in large part to Medina's supporters, who say Perry is their second choice by a 52-24 margin.

It's been a rough couple of weeks for Medina's standing. Her favorability spread in the previous poll was 40/9 for a +31 net positive. Now she's at 36/30 for a net positive of just +6. A 25 point drop on your numbers in the span of just two weeks is pretty unusual.

Fair or not the issue of whether Medina is a 'truther'- someone who thinks the federal government was involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks- seems to be hurting her. 21% of primary voters think she subscribes to that theory while another 29% are unsure. Among that half of the electorate Medina is getting just 7% with 51% going to Perry and 30% to Hutchison. Medina actually leads with the half that does not think she is a truther, with 33% to 32% for Hutchison and 29% for Perry.

Although it now appears Hutchison will safely avoid the embarrassment of a third place finish her weak standing with conservative voters continues to make it unlikely that she will fare well in a primary electorate dominated by them. She actually has a negative approval rating- 43/45 with them- and trails Perry 45-24. She has a dominant 51-26 lead with moderates, but they account for just a quarter of likely voters.

Hutchison's struggles are not necessarily a product of voters disliking her so much as their wishing she would just stay in the Senate. 37% say that's the office they would like her serving in compared to 31% who wish she was out of elected office and 24% who would like her as Governor.

As for Perry his 50/41 approval spread within the GOP primary electorate is pretty mediocre but barring some major change of events he should win nomination for another term. That will set up what will likely be his closest race for Governor yet against Houston Mayor Bill White, who's cruising to the Democratic nomination with a 59-12 lead over his main challenger.

Full results here

My math yesterday was definitely moot because I felt like more people would know Medina is a 9/11 truther... according to this poll only 21% know she is a truther, and 29% are unsure... so that half is lumped into the "yes she is a truther" category they teased yesterday? What about the other 50%? They think she is not a truther? Could be. Who knows.

I have to say again that the PPP poll always seems to be an outlier... they also showed Kay up by huge margins in early 2009, which I felt was inflated...

They have also showed Rick below where most other polls are showing him. When others were showing Rick at 45 or 49, they had him at 39. Now there aren't other polls post Medina truther comments, but they have Rick at 40. According to their poll Rick is going to a run off... even if he wins over lots and lots of the undecided voters.

I have predicted a win on March 2 without a run off, but if the PPP poll is correct we are in for a Punxsutawney Phil scenario... six more weeks of negative campaign advertisements and a huge cost to the party... as Bill White without a runoff consolidates his support and raises millions. Lord, help us.