Tom Leppert off to a terrible start...

Tom Leppert is having a rough start to his senate campaign...

Who?

Tom Leppert...

You know... Tom Leppert...

Helped lead Washington Mutual (link) when they went under and had to be bought out by J.P. Morgan Chase.... bailouts anyone?

Dallas Mayor who allowed his team to give Michael Vick the key to the city over Super Bowl weekend...

Been in gay pride parades over the years (link)... now says he is for a Biblical definition of marriage...

Dallas taxes went up while he was mayor... now says he is a fiscal conservative who wants Washington out of our lives... sounds like he is just copying what worked for Rick in 2010...

Oversaw a period of stagnation in Dallas even while the rest of the state's urban areas are booming (link)....

Under his leadership Republicans did well everywhere around the state in November 2010... except Dallas...

Yeah... That Tom Leppert...

His announcement went terribly this week... you have peeps like Tom Pauken openly mocking Tom Leppert for being a RINO... you have the Dallas blogs mocking Tom Leppert for being a flip flopper on gay rights (link)... you have an abortion of a video he put out... it looks nice but it is way too long (link)... and way too sappy and boring (link)... and way too cliched...



Biggest loser in this... other than Tom Leppert? Roger Williams, whose possible Dallas constituency overlaps most with Tom Leppert's.

Does the Texas Tribune hate David Dewhurst?

First they hint that his health care plans are like Obamacare (link)... now they basically call him the early frontrunner who is very beatable and in a vulnerable position (link)...

Dewhurst, who has not yet declared that he will run, has the support of 27 percent of those polled, and no other Republican broke into double digits. Five other named candidates — Railroad CommissionersMichael Williams (5 percent) and Elizabeth Ames Jones (3 percent), U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (4 percent), former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (3 percent) and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (2 percent) — were clustered in low single digits. Undecided grabbed the biggest share of the Republican vote: 52 percent.

"It's good news for everybody," says pollster Daron Shaw, a government professor at UT. "If it's Dewhurst, he's ahead. For everybody else, the good news is that no one has become the clear alternative, and 52 percent of the voters are still undecided.

"Not any of these candidates has locked down the kind of support they need to win a Republican primary," he says.

If I were running for senate, I would want to be named "Don't Know" right about now. That guy is winning going away. Actually, I think Roger Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones are peaking... I just don't see them gaining a lot of traction... Michael Williams has a lot of room to grow. I think Ted Cruz may grow as well based on the efforts I have seen so far... Michael McCaul may very well run but I don't know any inside story there... he has a lot of money... actually a lot of these candidates have a lot of money... especially Dewhurst who has a lot of soft support simply because he is a high profile statewide official people associate with Rick... as if he is Rick's VP...

Speaking of Rick, his approval looks okay, but possibly a little lower than I would have anticipated... either that or this poll is not very accurate which would not be so surprising...

Perry gets good marks from 39 percent, bad marks from 40 percent (25 percent strongly disapproving) and neutral ratings from 17 percent. The state Legislature's numbers are milder, but similar: 32 percent approving, 35 percent disapproving (15 percent strongly), and 27 percent are neutral.

What this race looks like to me is the Republican Full Employment Act....

If you are unemployed just get on one of these campaigns...

I have also heard scuttlebutt from basically peeps on every campaign... "our internals show us doing really well..."

Yeah... sure..

I can see that being the case for Michael Williams, and maybe even Ted Cruz... because everyone I talk to is a supporter of one of those two it seems like... especially Michael... but I really don't see some of the others winning more than a few accidental percentage points that you get just for being among the choices...

I can also see a true Republican primary poll... sampling peeps who actually vote in these things... having some of the more conservative grassroots favorites higher...

Now that being said if Texas is still in play at the national level in 2012 for the presidency you could quickly see this becoming less of an insider decision among a small number of Republicans and becoming more of a wide open free for all among non typical GOP voters... and if Rick has been faking us out all this time and really does run for president... something I highly doubt would happen... it would change... everything... all of that is very unlikely though...

Dewcristcare in Texas?

The Texas Tribune is not doing David Dewhurst any favors with this line (link)...

It's not Obamacare, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst said Wednesday of new state health care legislation, virtually ensuring comparisons.

Dewhurst unveiled the two new health care bills with state Sen. Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound, the bills' author, at a press conference Wednesday. The legislation will encourage doctors and hospitals to work together to "improve medical outcomes by incentivizing doctors and hospitals to use best practices and focus on wellness and prevention, rather than the number of procedures they perform," Dewhurst said.

Specific provisions in the two bills include the establishment of a statewide doctor-payment system based on improving patient care quality and finding efficiencies. Another provision would reduce Medicaid payments to doctors when patients are readmitted for preventable illnesses.

And without prompting, notes the Austin American-Statesman, the lieutenant governor was sure to add that the bills were the "furthest thing" from President Barack Obama's federal health care reform.

But comparisons revealed some similarities. Both the state bills and federal law make reference to programs looking to reduce "potentially preventable admissions." And federal reform references "Accountable Care Organizations," which are effectively medical homes that manage patients' primary care, similar to the "Health Care Collaboratives" mentioned in the state legislation, the Tribune's Emily Ramshaw noted.

How significant is the overlap? Republican Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, chairwoman of the House Public Health Committee, told the Statesman that the federal law included some "good ideas."

And Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, said, "At some point in time, there is a consensus on stuff."

The big difference is that there is no individual mandate to buy health insurance... but Dewhurst saying "it's not Obamacare" did seem to raise red flags in the same way that a teenage girl putting about a gallon of makeup on a blemish and then preemptively announcing to the world that it's not a zit it is just a scratch from her dog. O...kay...

Self conscious much?

Dewhurst now needs to make sure this becomes law so any concerns about it being like Obamacare can be soothed because people will see for their own eyes it is very very different... if it fails other candidates can say he tried to push Dewcristcare but thankfully failed and leave it at that...

amazon.com, Rick, and Susan Combs... who is right?

I see points on both sides, but it looks an awfully lot like Susan Combs is trying to almost unilaterally tax the internet... I think Rick makes the winning political argument... jobs and lower taxes (link). Excerpt follows...

Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, told The Examiner in an exclusive interview that Amazon's decision to leave the state was a result of a wrong decision by the state comptroller, and that he will work with legislators to make sure Amazon can stay.

"That is a problem and I would suggest to you that we need to look at that decision that our comptroller made," he said. "The comptroller made that decision independently. I would tell you from my perspective that's not the decision I would have made."

Amazon announced that it would close its Texas distribution center, citing "an unfavorable regulatory climate" due to the comptroller's attempts to collect sales taxes. Perry noted that the Amazon distribution center was a warehouse without a storefront. "You couldn't go in and buy anything out of that store, and that, historically, has been the way we defined whether you pay taxes or not -- if you had a storefront. This obviously didn't have a store front. It was specifically there to manage products that need to be shipped out."

But State Comptroller Susan Combs believes that Amazon is responsible for sales taxes not collected on online sales in the state. Last year, her office demanded $269 million in uncollected sales taxes from the company, and the case is pending before the Sate Office of Administrative Hearings.

"We don't want to be onerous on tax policy where businesses and I would say I'm having a hard time getting my hands around this one," Perry continued. "The good news is that the legislature is in town for our bianual session. Hopefully someone will be able to craft some legislation -- and actually do it -- before Amazon walks out the door. Texas should be a bastion for businesses not one where they're sitting there going 'we'd rather go over to go to Oklahoma where we could get a better deal.'"

"Texas doesn't need to make itself less competitive with its tax decisions."

Susan Combs might run against Greg Abbott for Lt. Governor. I think this hurts her chances at that...

CPAC... and Ted Cruz is Canadian?

Yes the rumors are true... yes I went to CPAC under cover... and yes I observed candidates... or didn't observe them as it were...

Michael Williams and Ted Cruz were around a lot, but neither one worked the conference as hard or in as organized a fashion as he should have... Ted did seem like he was trying really hard at times without his hard work bearing much fruit... he often seemed stuck in long conversations with one person while Michael worked rooms and saw lots of people along the way... and seemed to be in a lot more camera phone pictures with peeps than Ted Cruz...

Which made this article in Human Events (link) extremely puzzling... hat tip to South Steps (link)...

Ted Cruz got his campaign manager to pull in a favor from his previous job to get some water carried.  Something had to be done about the perception that the internet exclusively loves Michael Williams.  That explains the expensive banner ads for Cruz that are everywhere.

From what I observed at CPAC Michael Williams was a crowd favorite when walking through the corridors... if only because he is black but probably because he has headlined CPAC and other similar national events in past years... Ted Cruz really kind of blended in more than a candidate for one of the most important open senate races in the country should... that's what I witnessed...

I think Ted Cruz is probably doing all the right things. I think Michael Williams probably is doing the right things too... I don't really know because so much of it is behind the scenes... I could probably live with either one as senator... although the more I look at their actual records the more clear differences emerge...

I didn't see any evidence that Roger Williams actually made it to CPAC... was I looking in the wrong places... maybe... but he was nowhere to be found.

I started doing a little research into the candidates, and Ted Cruz is a like-able enough guy but he sort of has some of the Ivy Leaguer baggage in some ways... and he is thin on the actual work resume for a big deal like United States senator...  and in doing my web searches... strangely in the research it looks like someone probably on Michael McCaul's team or maybe Dan Branch's... assiduously posted on every story and every article about Ted Cruz back in early 2009 when it looked like they might clash for attorney general that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. Calgary, it looks like... because his parents were in the oil business...

Who can blame Ted Cruz for being born in a beautiful place like that?

Calgary is like Austin but instead of hills they have the most beautiful mountains in the world in the background... and it is cold for 7 or 8 months out of the year instead of 90 or more degrees 7 or 8 months out of the year... if anything Calgary is probably more conservative than Austin... just saying... Austin is pretty liberal eh...

Still... being born in Canada... is that a bad thing? It's not like he says "hoser" but it does preclude him from ever being president... which is one thing I have seen out there aboot why Ted should win... because he is a rising star and could be president in 15 years or so... well... sorry... he can't be... he wasn't born here, and that doesn't make me a birther...

There's even a really terrible website that bashes Ted Cruz but might actually spark a backlash because it is so over the top... http://canadacruz.blogspot.com/

They call him Raffy Cruz and try to post blogs in a cheeky way but the humor is lacking and it just comes off as sort of spiteful and petty... not a fan at all the way I am a fan of the South Steps... which everyone in Texas politics should really at least a couple times a week... and the Canada Cruz page... go ahead and block it from your browser because it is absolutely diarrhea. Ted Cruz grew up in America and is an American citizen...

So to recap...

Michael Williams and Ted Cruz both worked CPAC the way you might expect... both probably could have been more disciplined at it... both got good blogger buzz and press out of it... Ted had a built in edge because he was on stage MC-ing part of the day... which was big big exposure that Michael Williams did not receive... Michael Williams seemed to make the most of his time however even eclipsing Ted Cruz... although Human Events oddly declared what I viewed as the second place guy by a long shot the actual winner of the two...

Which to me just means that Ted Cruz gave Human Events an interview and maybe were snubbed by Michael Williams if even just inadvertently? Or maybe Ted Cruz used those debating skills he honed in college and just really makes a convincing case out of very little actual experience to peeps who don't really know any better...

Michael Williams also needs to work on his elevator pitch a little bit... Ted Cruz has apparently been working on his for a long time because his is really good albeit embellished... Michael Williams is quick on his feet, but he needs to have a better speech he gives in 90 seconds about what sets him apart... that will also help for fundraising calls... which if they are not on the phone for an hour every day fundraising right now they are doing it all wrong... Michael Williams won't win on likeability alone, or being quick on his feet... he needs to tell a narrative... he needs to start taking control of his story...

Roger Williams who also has very limited experience in reality must have been working the back rooms for money and maybe that angle will pay off but no bloggers or activists saw Roger at all... money will end up being a big deal this quarter and the next... if peeps can't begin to raise serious money by the middle of this year they might be sunk... the absolute make or break quarter will be the second to last of 2011... money needs to be in the bank by then or candidates will be dropping out...

Ron Paul is not running for senate that we know of... but he probably is running for president again... his peeps were really annoying to be around... it was like they hated being there and hated everything and everyone around them... but they were the loudest peeps there...

I usually asked peeps if they had feelings about Elizabeth Ames Jones, David Dewhurst, Craig James, Debra Medina, and the others... and usually people had no idea who those people were, or they somehow associated Jones with Kay... one out of state blogger said... oh yeah she was Kay's chief of staff for a long time, right? 

No... 

People also had heard the phrase "Dewcrist" in reaction to David Dewhurst but seemed skeptical that "Rick's running mate" could be as much of a RINO as Charlie Crist...

Umm... no... Lite Guv in Texas runs independently... it's not a running mate situation...

Woah... that's weird... you guys do everything differently in Texas don't you?

Not really... a lot of states do it that way.

So in other words people were pretty grossly ignorant about Texas politics which is pretty amazing considering how big we are and how influential we are nationally...