Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Does the Texas Tribune hate David Dewhurst?

First they hint that his health care plans are like Obamacare (link)... now they basically call him the early frontrunner who is very beatable and in a vulnerable position (link)...

Dewhurst, who has not yet declared that he will run, has the support of 27 percent of those polled, and no other Republican broke into double digits. Five other named candidates — Railroad CommissionersMichael Williams (5 percent) and Elizabeth Ames Jones (3 percent), U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (4 percent), former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (3 percent) and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (2 percent) — were clustered in low single digits. Undecided grabbed the biggest share of the Republican vote: 52 percent.
"It's good news for everybody," says pollster Daron Shaw, a government professor at UT. "If it's Dewhurst, he's ahead. For everybody else, the good news is that no one has become the clear alternative, and 52 percent of the voters are still undecided.
"Not any of these candidates has locked down the kind of support they need to win a Republican primary," he says.
If I were running for senate, I would want to be named "Don't Know" right about now. That guy is winning going away. Actually, I think Roger Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones are peaking... I just don't see them gaining a lot of traction... Michael Williams has a lot of room to grow. I think Ted Cruz may grow as well based on the efforts I have seen so far... Michael McCaul may very well run but I don't know any inside story there... he has a lot of money... actually a lot of these candidates have a lot of money... especially Dewhurst who has a lot of soft support simply because he is a high profile statewide official people associate with Rick... as if he is Rick's VP...
Speaking of Rick, his approval looks okay, but possibly a little lower than I would have anticipated... either that or this poll is not very accurate which would not be so surprising...
Perry gets good marks from 39 percent, bad marks from 40 percent (25 percent strongly disapproving) and neutral ratings from 17 percent. The state Legislature's numbers are milder, but similar: 32 percent approving, 35 percent disapproving (15 percent strongly), and 27 percent are neutral.
What this race looks like to me is the Republican Full Employment Act....

If you are unemployed just get on one of these campaigns...

I have also heard scuttlebutt from basically peeps on every campaign... "our internals show us doing really well..."

Yeah... sure..

I can see that being the case for Michael Williams, and maybe even Ted Cruz... because everyone I talk to is a supporter of one of those two it seems like... especially Michael... but I really don't see some of the others winning more than a few accidental percentage points that you get just for being among the choices...

I can also see a true Republican primary poll... sampling peeps who actually vote in these things... having some of the more conservative grassroots favorites higher...

Now that being said if Texas is still in play at the national level in 2012 for the presidency you could quickly see this becoming less of an insider decision among a small number of Republicans and becoming more of a wide open free for all among non typical GOP voters... and if Rick has been faking us out all this time and really does run for president... something I highly doubt would happen... it would change... everything... all of that is very unlikely though...

1 comment:

  1. The GOP nominee for President in 2012 will keep Texas in the Republican column very easily, and on the Senate race, Dewhurst better be worried about an April runoff if he doesn't get 50 percent next March.

    ReplyDelete

Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.