Rick finally starts television ads...

A nice positive television spot for Rick... he has been saving up while Bill White and his allies have been on television for weeks and weeks bashing him without getting any traction or results (link)...

Bill White has spent millions of dollars without moving the dial... now Rick strikes back... this is a good ad to get people back in the mind set of Texas is the best and all of that... Texas pride... and the stats are on Rick's side... Texas does lead the nation in job growth under Rick as governor... Texas has done better than the rest of the country... why change horses in mid stream when you've got a good thing going and the alternative is a run down old horse like Bill White that would let us drown in the river...

Poll averages... pretty flat... Bill White not gaining...

Here is my recent poll summary from yesterday (link).

AUGUST 22--- Rick was up 49 to 41...

AUGUST 24-28--- Then Rick fell and was only up 44.4 to 40.6.

AUGUST 25-29--- Also Rick fell even more and was up by 42-41...

AUGUST 29-31--- But then Rick surged back into the lead and Bill White cratered 50-38...

SEPTEMBER 2-6--- But then Rick fell a little and Bill White recovered, making it 48-42...

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If the over under is 7 points on this race... take the over... Bill White has spent millions on television ads... Rick has been keeping his powder dry for the final push... Bill White just can't gain any traction... even if you believe he has chipped away some at Rick's numbers...

One commenter on my polling blog yesterday (link) said...

The way that you said this:

"I don't know anything about this poll other than it was done by Zogby and was paid for by a Democrat..."

Seemed like you were calling out Zogby. You didn't need to say it, but it was a reference to him being Jewish.

Uh... what? First of all Zogby is not even Jewish... second of all this is unreal... anyone who can read some kind of religious prejudice from that statement is off their rocker... probably should seek psychiatric treatment or take some remedial English classes...

What is the deal with Zogby anyway? He is called the worst pollster in the world by the New York Times' liberal stat guy Nate Silver (link) and also that "Zogby broke the internet" (link) because his polls are so bad...

Dead last...

It is not just liberals like Nate Silver. Conservatives don't like Zogby either (link)...

Rasmussen is rated pretty highly... I don't see Wilson Research or Hill (not to be confused with the publication "The Hill") on there... PPP gets good ratings nationally as well although they have a terrible track record in Texas...

Bottom line take away here is that people in the media reading so much into a couple of questionable polls are making fools of themselves... writing stories as if everything is suddenly different... writing lengthy articles about what Bill White is doing right and Rick is doing wrong based on a couple of polls paid for by liberal trial lawyers... taken before another poll showing Rick up by 12... that is just really dumb...

Bill White struggles to answer an incredibly easy question on air...

Another gaffe or fumble depending on your perspective (link). Excerpt follows...

Bill White was on Austin 590 KLBJ’s The Todd and Don Show last week to allegedly discuss his campaign. Typically, he danced around all the questions, except admitting once again that he wants to keep a gas tax hike on the table.

During the interview, Bill White got prickly around the subject of his tax records, claiming he "had the highest security clearance in the United States" while serving in the Clinton Administration, as if that should excuse him from facing public scrutiny now that he wants to hold the highest elected office in Texas.

Bill White claims his "financial disclosures are more complete," and uncomfortably added, "Other candidates aren’t putting their tax returns online who’ve run for statewide office."

Next, he got defensive regarding Barack Obama, and continued to employ his "Duck and Cover Strategy."

When asked if he's avoiding a campaign event with his party's leader, he snapped, "I’m going to campaign for myself throughout the state," and added, "I’m not going to invite the president in to come help me." For some reason "yes" wasn't apparently an easy enough answer.

Next, Mr. White claims to have not paid attention to whether the bipartisan Bush tax cuts are going to be extended. The hosts called him out, saying, "Oh, come on, Mr. White!"

Are we to believe Bill White hasn't been following a key federal issue that will impact every Texan, and can't find a cogent answer on almost any other topic with the exception of raising the gas tax? If true, it makes you wonder, what has he been doing since he started his campaign?

Either way, Bill White’s disastrous interview on talk radio further exemplifies that he’s in no shape to be Governor of Texas.

I think I have it figured out now... Bill White isn't releasing his taxes, because he really doesn't want to debate... because of moments like this. He gets to remain sort of mythical in an Obama sort of way during the campaign...

Bill White's peeps want him to run as a Dem...

Despite his liberal record Bill White is running his campaign as a moderate... which is not making some of his best supporters happy (link). Excerpt follows...

There has been much ballyhoo lately over polls showing Bill White behind Rick Perry. White would do well to remember that given a choice between a Republican and a Democrat talking like a Republican, the real thing wins every time.

I am so sick of Democrats trying to play the Republican's game using their words and playing to their strengths. We haven't tried this in a rather long time, but why not try to run on Democratic values? Running as Republicans sure hasn't worked. We haven't won a statewide race since Governor Ann Richards. Obviously pretending that we are just like the Republicans doesn't work.

Believe it or not, there are actually more of us out there. We just don't vote our numbers because we feel like we'll just loose anyway. So why bother? When we promote ourselves as Republican lite, we turn away voters that have voted for us. Instead, they come away with the notion that there isn't any difference between the two parties, so why bother?

If we want to win in Texas, we need to start acting like real Texas Democrats. We need to be more like Ann Richards and Barbara Jordan and Molly Ivins and Ladybird Johnson. Ladybird faced down the old south and the KKK to promote the Civil Rights Act. She didn't say stupid bs like "I'm for family values."

Who could forget Ann Richards as the keynote at the DNC? People are still quoting it. She wasn't pretending to be a conservative. How about when Barbara Jordan stood up to President Nixon and called him out? Was she pretending to be a Republican? Does anyone remember Ralph Yarborough? Did he ever pretend to be just like the Republicans just to get elected?

We can elect Democrats in Texas statewide once more, but we'll have to start sounding like real Democrats to do it.

Dems don't sound all that fired up do they?

Polls designed to save Bill White from the triage kiss of death...

Michael Barone reveals that Democrats are applying a political triage system and cutting off candidates they deem as lost causes (link). Excerpt follows...

When you spot the word "triage" in a political news story, you know someone is in trouble.

Triage is the procedure by which medical personnel screening people injured in combat or disasters separate those who can be saved from those who can't. The first group are given immediate surgery in hopes of recovery. The second are given painkillers to make the end bearable.

So it was a startling to read last weekend in the New York Times that House Democratic leaders "are preparing a brutal triage of their own members in hopes of saving enough seats to keep a slim grip on the majority."

With a poll just before the weekend showing Rick up by 12 points, and prebituaries already being written (link), you just knew that Bill White's supporters would put out their own numbers to try to keep Bill White on life support and save him from the second painkiller option in the triage.

Nate Silver of the New York Times has Bill White at a 16.5% chance of winning, and Rick at an 83.5% chance of winning after very little movement over the past few months of heavy spending by the Democrats and no advertising spending by Rick (link).

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The Democratic Governors Association has already sunk a lot of money into Bill White's campaign, and there were rumors last week that he might have been on the verge of getting cut off by some of his biggest donors outside of Texas especially. Bill White and his allies needed to show that Bill White is a good investment...

Right on cue three polls have come out this week... none really all that reputable.

Polls, polls, everywhere, but not a drop to drink... how does that phrase go?

The first... August 25-29... was commissioned by trial lawyers and everything about it looks like a pushy poll. Maybe not a push poll as political scientists define it per se but a pushy poll... they asked a bunch of leading questions on insurance issues slanted how the trial lawyers wanted to push... In this poll Rick leads Bill White 42-41 with an extremely high number of undecided voters compared to every other poll out there today.

Texas watch is a very liberal group, and just look at some of these questions (link). They asked nearly two dozen questions designed to prove that Texans want government to take over the insurance industry. Strange survey.

Much has been made of it being a Republican pollster, but David Hill is not respected among Republicans I have talked to over the past few years and was famously or infamously depending on your point of view was really pessimistic about Republican chances in Texas in 2008... I think he basically declared the GOP dead in Texas.

Hill's split was 36.7% GOP, 32.5% Democrat. Really? Republicans only have a 4 point lead on Democrats in Texas? Is that a joke?

Another poll was commissioned by a Democratic "philanthropist" ...whatever that means... by Zogby (link). In this poll which was conducted from August 24-28 Rick is up 44.4 to 40.6... basically a 4 point lead... I don't know anything about this poll other than it was done by Zogby and was paid for by a Democrat...

Next, PPP is a liberal outfit from North Carolina that has a bad track record and very little credibility in Texas (link) (link) (link) (link). They had Rick down to Kay by 25 points at one point in the primary... they never had Rick above the low 40s... and then Rick ended up avoiding a runoff and winning by 21...

Earlier in the summer PPP had Rick and Bill White tied at 43 points each... several weeks later and millions of dollars spent by Bill White and his allies resulted in Rick gaining to 48-42 (link)... in other words even in PPP's liberal poll Rick gained 5 points, Bill White lost 1 point... for some reason PPP seems to do really poorly in Texas... maybe because we don't register by party so it is harder for them to find good samples of peeps to poll...

Strangely... the Wilson Research Poll which was conducted from August 29-31 (AFTER the trial lawyer push poll and Democratic "philanthropist" poll) has been largely ignored in the media narrative of polls (link). Excerpt follows...

WRS poll - TX Governor: Perry Up 50% - 38%

Methodology

Wilson Research Strategies conducted a research study of likely voters throughout the state of Texas on behalf of GOPAC-TX.

Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview August 29-31, 2010. The study has a sample size of n=1001 Likely Voters. The margin of error is equal to ±3.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. The sample was stratified to represent the district electorate based on race, age, gender, partisan identification, and geographic distribution.

Key Findings

Ballot

· Rick Perry 50%

· Bill White 38%

· Other 1%

· Undecided 11%

Name ID and Image

· Rick Perry

ID – 98% Favorable – 50% Unfavorable – 40%

Conclusions

Rick Perry is in a strong position to win a third term in November. He not only has the Republican political environment on his side but has a net-positive image and a solid lead against the popular mayor of the state’s largest city. See link below for full memo

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/GOPAC-TX_State%20of%20the%20Race_Memo_100902.pdf

Another recent poll from Rasmussen conducted just a couple of days right before the trial lawyer push poll and the Democrat philanthropist poll had Rick up 49-41 (link)... August 22 was the date on that one...

So in other words if we are to believe these polls as equally valid, the timeline goes like this...

AUGUST 22--- Rick was up 49 to 41...

AUGUST 24-28--- Then Rick fell and was only up 44.4 to 40.6.

AUGUST 25-29--- Also Rick fell even more and was up by 42-41...

AUGUST 29-31--- But then Rick surged back into the lead and Bill White cratered 50-38...

SEPTEMBER 2-6--- But then Rick fell a little and Bill White recovered, making it 48-42...

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Isn't it funny how this looks when you lay it out in a timeline of when the polls were conducted, not when they were released strategically to get more press...

I doubt there were many violent roller coaster swings like this. Likely Rick was up by 8 or so points the whole time... and likely he will win by around 10 points... as Perry vs. World sez, take the over on the point spread of 7 (link). Excerpt follows...

In short: underdog candidates love to see polls released showing the race tightening, and that's no exception here, so that's good for Bill White. But I don't yet see anything that makes me terribly uncomfortable taking the over on +7 Perry.

One thing to notice is that Rick's peeps have been very very quiet on polls in general, good or bad... they don't mention the good ones all that much... and they certainly don't mention the bad ones... Bill White's peeps seem far more eager to proclaim to the heavens when there is a poll they like...

Negative campaigning works...

Omar Villafranca is one of the best political reporters in Texas today... he seems to ask the tough questions but not take himself too seriously... he also plays it down the middle...

He profiled some of the negative attack website efforts of both sides, and I think he did a pretty good job (link). Excerpt follows...

Whisper campaigns. Smear job. Mudslinging. All tactics that political operatives are familiar with when it comes to campaigns, and the race to be the next Governor of Texas is no different.

Governor Rick Perry and Bill White are both taking shots at each other on-line.

BillWhiteforTexas.Com will take you to White's campaign website. ButBillWhiteforTaxes.com will direct you to an anti-White site funded by theTexans for Fiscal Responsibility, a group backing Governor Perry.

Bill White for taxes is brilliant. I wonder how many people inadvertently stumble on that site because the two letters are switched.

It is going to be extra difficult for Joe Farias in 2011...

The San Antonio Express News wrote a profile about Cliff Walker and the Back to Basics PAC, which is apparently runs (link). Excerpt follows...

First there were the trial lawyers.

Two of them — Steve Mostyn and Amber Anderson, a husband-and-wife team from Houston — recently told Houston Chronicle reporter R.G. Ratcliffe that they'll spend as much as $3 million this election cycle to try to take down Republican Gov. Rick Perry and add Democrats in the Texas House.

Then there was Cliff Walker, 30, a somewhat obscure legislative aide for state Rep. Joe Farias, a somewhat obscure San Antonio Democrat.

The lawyers plucked Walker from Austin's sideline several months ago, and he used their money to build the Back to Basics political action committee.

That's the organization behind a stark, full-page newspaper ad last week targeting Perry's refusal to debate — deep breath — until Democrat Bill White releases his tax returns from the mid-1990s when he served as deputy U.S. energy secretary. Regardless of your response to the ad, whether it was anger or agreement, the black-and-white portrait of an uncharacteristically tentative-looking Perry, with the word “Coward” streaming underneath, will be one of most memorable images from this campaign season.

“We felt it was time to make it serious,” said Walker, the PAC's director.

photo from the Walker Report... no relation to Cliff as far as I know (link)

Assuming this Cliff Walker guy goes back to work for Joe Farias during the session, Farias may have more trouble than he might otherwise have had... if I were Rick, the veto pen might come out on anything with Farias' name on it... just arbitrarily and capriciously...

Then again, is Cliff Walker just the face they are putting on this organization to distract from the likelihood that the PAC is being run by career politician Bill White's closest handlers? Is a mere 30 year old really in charge of millions of dollars of negative ads? On the one hand it is hard to see that being the case... there probably needs to be a real adult in charge for anyone to throw down that kind of money... on the other hand the frivolous product Back to Basics puts out with all of that trial lawyer money does point to amateurs being involved at high levels... not just the quality of the product... the decisions and the messaging themselves... they are not choosing winning ideas to run on. Many of their ads are straight up hypocritical and easily proven so... they aren't moving voters or convincing anyone of anything... the coward ad probably backfired and hurt Bill White according to my discussions with veteran political observers.

It is hard to know just how much coordination there is between the White campaign and the Back to Basics PAC... but one thing is clear... it has been a monumental waste of money but will only add to Rick's political legacy of overcoming challengers who out spent him in nearly every race he has ever run.