Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Digging into the PPP poll... Among Republicans Rick 46, Kay 29, Medina 16...

So who will vote in the Republican primary? Mostly Republicans? Lots of Democrats? Independents? (link)...

It all depends on how many Republicans, Independents, and Democrats show up to vote in the Republican primary, but Rick does much better when you take the Democrats out... and that Independent/Other number is pretty amazing and again is a big outlier compared to other polls...

The last time a PPP poll came out showing Rick at 39%, everyone said, "welp, that means there's a run off..."

Then the next day or two lots of other polls showed Rick at 45% or 49% and Rick winning more than 50% when leaners were added... everyone said, "welp, looks like there won't be a runoff."

Now people are back to PPP... the latest polls are always the most authoritative even if they are consistent outliers...

A run off would basically just prolong the negative ads for more than a month... and delay the inevitable...


  1. You can bet there will be lots of Independents and Democrats voting in the GOP Primary, because Bill White is a shoo-in.

    They will most likely go for Medina because she appears to be the weaker candidate.

  2. Learn how to read a damn poll. "Democrats" made up 2% of respondents.

  3. I am not sure any poll can really tell us how many Democrats will vote in the Republican primary. It could be 2%. It could be 5%. Who knows. Usually, it is Republicans who vote in Republican primaries.


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.