At the beginning of the month, Perry lead 44% to Hutchison’s 29% and Medina’s 16%. In September, just after Hutchison traveled statewide to announce her candidacy for governor, she posted a 40% to 38% lead over Perry, but that was the high point of her support which has been declining ever since.
Early voting has already begun in the primary which wraps up on Tuesday. Turnout is often difficult to project for primaries, but among those who say they have already voted, Perry has earned 49% support, while Hutchison and Medina have picked up 24% and 20% respectively.
Perry appears to have successfully portrayed Hutchison as a Washington insider at a time when voter unhappiness with politics in the nation’s capital is hurting incumbents nationwide. Medina seemed to be drawing support from Hutchison in the previous survey but stumbled this month in part because of a high-profile spat with Fox broadcaster Glenn Beck over her remarks suggesting there was an undisclosed conspiracy behind the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.
Perry, who is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor, carries the male voter by more than two-to-one over Hutchison and wins a plurality (45%) of the female vote as well.
The incumbent earns 56% of the conservative vote to Hutchison’s 22% and Medina’s 16%.
Conservatives dominate Republican primaries in Texas and nationally. But Perry also breaks even with Hutchison among GOP moderates.
That "already voted" figure is interesting. I could see Medina doing much better among early voting and Kay doing much better during election day voting... I think Rick will probably also benefit from some of that drop off from Medina. I think as more peeps learn about the real Debra Medina, it will be surprising if she gets more than 15%. I think it will be shocking if Kay gets more than a third 33%... Which leaves 52% for Rick. That is my prediction as of today, but things can always change.