Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Rick 48, Kay 27, Medina 16, Undecided 9...

The latest Rasmussen poll (link) confirms what I suspected yesterday... namely that the liberal North Carolina PPP polls continue to be outliers in Texas and every other poll shows Rick closing the deal... honing in on 50%...

Rick leads by 21 points... 48% to 27% to 16% for Medina... with 9% still unsure. If Rick can win over basically one in four remaining undecided voters, or peel off a few more Medina voters who are still learning about her conspiratorial leanings and her 9/11 truther sympathies... or even get a few more Republicans from Kay's side who didn't realize before that the Hutchisons had been convicted of fraud and conspiracy in 1994 (link), something that was covered up until this week oddly enough...

There may also be peeps out there who are just sick of the mud flinging, sick of the campaign commercials... sick of the party ripping its own guts out... they see that the Democrats have a nominee... they may have wanted to send some sort of protest message before but now are just concerned that Bill White with an extra 6 weeks of intraparty fighting amongst Rick and Kay and a huge expensive 20 or more million dollar run off that it is time to get behind the front runner...

A few more nuggets in this poll... Rick has a net favorable of 67%, and a net unfavorable of 31%. Kay has a net favorable of 56% and a net unfavorable of 42%. Medina has a net favorable of 35% and a net unfavorable of 47%.

This is Rick's biggest lead of the campaign, but it makes sense considering that Kay all but threw in the towel yesterday (link) and Rick is the only candidate running any positive ads... while Kay runs smear tactic robo calls and really sinister looking direct mail... she just looks petty and negative, while Rick looks like he is proud of Texas and ready to stand up to Obama for the remainder of his time in office.

As for Medina, her 9/11 truther comments are definitely getting out there and harming her in a big way despite what the Burnt Orange kiddos and Boyd Ritchie and all those guys are hoping... Democrats obviously want a run off, and Medina is their only hope for a run off, but she is just not viable even as a protest vote if you actually look into what she is about and who she runs with. If you are still unconvinced that Medina is an awful candidate follow this link to see why (link). It is funny to see Democrats actively root for this nut and buy into and promote some of the really out there conspiracy theories about Clear Channel and a Glenn Beck conspiracy just because it hurts Rick. Credibility? What credibility?

Rasmussen explains a little more of the results (link). Excerpt follows...

At the beginning of the month, Perry lead 44% to Hutchison’s 29% and Medina’s 16%. In September, just after Hutchison traveled statewide to announce her candidacy for governor, she posted a 40% to 38% lead over Perry, but that was the high point of her support which has been declining ever since.

Early voting has already begun in the primary which wraps up on Tuesday. Turnout is often difficult to project for primaries, but among those who say they have already voted, Perry has earned 49% support, while Hutchison and Medina have picked up 24% and 20% respectively.


Perry appears to have successfully portrayed Hutchison as a Washington insider at a time when voter unhappiness with politics in the nation’s capital is hurting incumbents nationwide. Medina seemed to be drawing support from Hutchison in the previous survey but stumbled this month in part because of a high-profile spat with Fox broadcaster Glenn Beck over her remarks suggesting there was an undisclosed conspiracy behind the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.

Perry, who is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor, carries the male voter by more than two-to-one over Hutchison and wins a plurality (45%) of the female vote as well.

The incumbent earns 56% of the conservative vote to Hutchison’s 22% and Medina’s 16%.

Conservatives dominate Republican primaries in Texas and nationally. But Perry also breaks even with Hutchison among GOP moderates.

That "already voted" figure is interesting. I could see Medina doing much better among early voting and Kay doing much better during election day voting... I think Rick will probably also benefit from some of that drop off from Medina. I think as more peeps learn about the real Debra Medina, it will be surprising if she gets more than 15%. I think it will be shocking if Kay gets more than a third 33%... Which leaves 52% for Rick. That is my prediction as of today, but things can always change.


  1. So Medina is on KBH's heels for those who have already voted...and the only respondents of the Rasmussen polls are those who have voted in a previous GOP primary. 25% of the people voting have NEVER voted in either party's primary, and you still have that prediction?

    All of a sudden 25% of the voters got off their ass to vote for Gov Gardasil or Kay Bailout? Seriously? What are you smoking up in Chicago?

    That poll tells me that Medina is beating Kay and that there will be a runoff.

  2. Once again I have to correct the Perry Spin Machine. Debra Medina is not, and has never been a truther, or a birther. She is, however, a tenther.

    I think it is more likely, now that a runoff is eminent, that Medina will gain from what the polls show.

    Conservatives don't want Hutchison, and would rather see 2 conservatives in a runoff.

  3. Medina is knowingly or unwittingly, a tool of Obama to help secure the election of a Dem. Gov for Tx. A whacko fringe candadite who infiltrated the TPM falsely running under the flag of a Republican conservative hoping to secure the vote of unsuspecting Republicans.

  4. Oh my gosh, here are some Medina spin doctors. Face it dudes, she's done. It's time you just accept it.

  5. Anyone who thinks there will be a runoff is smoking crack.


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.