Friday, February 26, 2010

Rick's money cannon versus Kay's fund raising failure...

Kay's peeps are freaking out about Rick's 1.3 plus million dollar one day fund raising haul, and they got Christy Hoppe to write an article about it (link). Excerpt follows...

Gov. Rick Perry has bragged this week about making fundraising history by bringing in a record $1.3 million in one day, intimating that it came from tapping grassroots support. It turns out that the money mostly came from those who own the field.


Jennifer Baker, a spokeswoman for Kay Bailey Hutchison, said Perry is again misleading Texans.

"The same Rick Perry lying about his campaign contributions is the same election year Rick that campaigns like a conservative and when elected tramples parental and property rights," Baker said, citing his now-rescinded mandate to have teenage girls receive cervical cancer vaccines and now-defunct Trans Texas Corridor.

What? Specifically what lie is Baker suggesting? That woman has wild eyes and bad quotes, I don't care at this point of tip toeing around that. I am going to say it. I think Jeff Sadosky was superior without question to Jen Baker and Joe Pounder put together... yet he rarely seemed to go on record in the press. What was that about?

I looked and Rick's peeps clearly are saying a larger number on their money cannon page than in their report...

What could explain the discrepancy?

Oh how about a little thing called 8 day telegram reports and Texas Ethics Commission rulings... candidates have to report all the money they raise every single day within 8 days of an election. Except they don't actually have to report it all because for big campaigns it would be practically impossible to report them all in such a short period of time... so they only have to report contributions over a thousand dollars each day...

Which means that while Rick definitely got the bulk of his campaign cash from large donors he must have had hundreds upon hundreds of small donors at or under 1000 on Wednesday that were not reported. That is the only way they could have raised so much more money than showed up in the reports from people over 1000...

I do not claim to be an expert on Texas campaign fundraising laws, but Christy Hoppe should have at the bare minimum included the fact that contributions of 1000 or less during the 8 days before an election don't have to be reported until the halfway point of the year...

This got me thinking, so I did a little digging around... actually someone dug for me and emailed me but like Paul Burka always says this is not the New York Times it is a blog so I am just passing along information that I have received...

On February 22, 23, and 24, Kay reported only a handful of total donations including 5 at 1000 and 4 others above 1000 adding up to 17,000... in three days... plus just under 10 grand from John Nau for use of his plane...

I doubt Kay raised money from more than 5 or 10 peeps under 1000, so this is pretty amazing. Her money has dried up almost completely... she raised around 6000 dollars on the day that Rick raised close to 1.4 million... look at those numbers for a second...



Kay better start hoping this race doesn't go to a runoff, because at least if Rick wins on March 2 she can always claim it was "close" but a runoff could get amazingly ugly fast... 62-38 would be my prediction in that situation...

Right now I am keeping my prediction for the general election that Rick will have over 50%. Kay won't get more than a third of the votes. Medina won't top... hopefully... 15%.


  1. The final total reported on the Money Cannon page is: $1,383,291.96

    That means Perry raised between 100 and 200 grand exclusively from donors under a thousand. Assuming an average donation of 50 dollars, that is a TON of people.

  2. So you're just saying Christy Hoppe lied when she wrote this:

    "Only 43 donors provided the first $1 million, and the total $1.28 million was netted from just 123 givers, including lobbyists and long-time political players, reports filed with the Texas Ethics Commission showed Friday. "

    123 = thousands?

  3. why would you assume that a single donation was made for 50 dollars, much less the average non reported one?

  4. That $50 figure is likely far too low, but it is likely that there were at least a couple hundred contributions to take them from 1.28 to 1.38 million. Approximately a hundred grand worth of contributions all below 1000 bucks means there are a lot more than what Hoppe reported. It looks like she intentionally misled the way she wrote her story, since she failed to mention that contributions of under a grand aren't reported separately. She made it sound like there were like 170 contributions total, which is obviously a joke. But she intentionally misled the way she wrote it, because she is either a lefty communist scumbag like 60% of journalists or a lazy/stupid piece of crap like the other 40%.

    Again, 50 as mentioned by RvK is too low, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the remaining average be around 300, which would mean more than 300 additional contributors.

  5. I asked a Perry staffer, and they said at least 1,000 donors below the $1k level that day--I guess we'll know after the July report comes out

  6. Phillip, I am not saying she is lying, but I think she deliberately left out information... from the looks of it there is somewhere maybe close to 130 thousand dollars from peeps who gave at or below 1000 dollars. I have no idea what the numbers are because Rick's peeps haven't released them, but you have to assume 130,000 worth of contributions at or below 1000 dollars will be into the hundreds of people, based on averages... unless it was 130 people giving 1000 each which is highly doubtful...


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.