New Numbers Alert: suburban County in Houston Media Market: Perry 58, KBH 20, Medina 15. This is before Medina's risible comment on Beck.
How low can KBH go?? A poll taken this week by someone not running for Governor showed that only 14% are certain they would vote for her.
From the Midland congressional district (sent by Ted Delisi)
The sample was 300 Republican primary voters who said they would “definitely” vote or “likely” to vote:
This is in Hutchison’s back yard of the Metroplex. I don’t see how she can recover from the free fall from the mid-thirties into the twenties.
Research 2000 is a reputable national polling firm. That said, the result is definitely an outlier.
Perry had the support of 45 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters — short of the majority required for an outright win. Hutchison had 21 percent and Medina had 19 percent, a two-percentage-point divide that's smaller than the poll's margin of error.
Pressed for a preference, 51 percent chose Perry, 34 percent chose Hutchison, and 15 percent chose Medina — an indication that Perry could win without a runoff if he can attract those voters into his camp
In general election match-ups between the main Democratic candidates and all three GOP candidates, the Republicans generally won comfortably. Among the 800 registered voters surveyed, both Perry and Hutchison best White by a nine-point margin (44%-35% and 43%-34%, respectively). This lead is just outside the 3.46 margin of error. Interestingly, Medina ties White (36%-36%), with a larger proportion of “don’t know” or “someone else” responses (21%/9%).
AUSTIN — Gov. Rick Perry holds a commanding lead over his two Republican opponents in a new Houston Chronicle poll, but he still hasn't closed the deal with Republican voters to avoid a runoff with U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
However, the race could turn into a Perry victory before the March 2 primary, said pollster Mickey Blum, because of what she called last week's “implosion” of activist candidate Debra Medina.
The poll found Perry leading with 45 percent support among likely Republican voters, with Hutchison at 29 percent and Medina at 17 percent; 8 percent said they were undecided. The Feb. 2-10 telephone interview survey of 464 likely Republican voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The survey was conducted for the Houston Chronicle, the San Antonio Express-News, the Austin American-Statesman, The Dallas Morning News and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram by Blum & Weprin Associates Inc.
Blum said normally poll numbers for an incumbent such as Perry will be mirrored in election returns. She said this is an unusual election, though.
“He looks good at this point: A 16-point lead and now the third candidate imploding,” Blum said. “He doesn't need very much to get to 50 percent. He just needs (Medina's) people to either stay home or vote for him.”
The survey suggests Perry leads his challengers among likely GOP primary voters among all groups, including women. The governor edges Hutchison, 39 percent to 34 percent, among female voters, and he has a commanding lead among men. He has more support among Republicans in virtually every region of the state, even in Hutchison's home region of Dallas-Fort Worth.Aman Batheja from Ft. Worth has a slightly different regional take as well (link). Excerpt follows...
In the Fort Worth area (classified in the poll as Tarrant, Parker and Johnson counties), Medina's support picks up considerably. She beats Hutchison, getting 26.2 percent support to the US Senator's 20.2 percent. Perry still leads with 39.9 percent.
Perry leads in most areas
"Hutchison does not seem to have a real base in the primary against two more conservative candidates," the pollsters said in a summary of their findings.
In regional breakdowns, the poll shows Perry with a comfortable lead in the Dallas area, Hutchison's home turf, drawing 44 percent to 30 percent with 19 percent for Medina. Hutchison makes her best showing in the Austin region, where she leads Perry 41 percent to 33 percent, with Medina drawing 20 percent.
Perry is the clear favorite in West Central Texas, South Texas, East Texas and the Upper Gulf Coast, and he leads Hutchison and Medina among all subgroups, the pollsters said.
Of the various demographic categories, Hutchison's strongest support comes from women, Blum said, but Perry nevertheless edges her 39 to 34 percent among women primary voters. Medina has 17 percent of the female vote.
Perry has a big lead among male voters, drawing 50 percent to Hutchison's 25 percent and Medina's 17 percent.
Usually, incumbents don't build support in the final weeks of an election, Blum said. But Perry could break the 50 percent threshold if Medina's comments cause her supporters to break toward Perry or stay home.
Perry's advantage — he leads in all regions of the state and in every demographic group, and 53 percent of all voters surveyed said the state is on the right track — is unusual at a time when he's looking to extend his term from 10 years to 14 and voters are not smiling on incumbents.
She said that Perry's voters are more certain about their choice than Hutchison's or Medina's.