Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Rick close to 50% in new statewide Texas poll...


Dispatch from Obamaland... it is cold here in Chicago, and I am just finishing my work day at almost midnight. I had to buy a new fluffy down coat because mine was too weak for these teens and below zero wind chills...

Peeps I talk to up here of the Republican persuasion ask me why Kay ever ran in the first place... I don't have an answer for them other than she thought it was her turn...

The latest poll again showing Kay much closer to third place than first place has Rick close to that 50% threshold (link). Excerpts follow...
Perry has 49 percent; Hutchison has 27 percent and Debra Medina has 19 percent.

[SNIP]

Some of their findings:

• In a hypothetical run-off between Perry and Hutchison, the Governor prevails handily 58% to 34%.
• 62% of Republican primary voters say they are "much more" (36%) or "somewhat more" (26%) likely to support a candidate who considers themselves to be a "tea-party" activist.

Looking more closely at the numbers Rick is getting 54% to Kay's 29% in Houston... and Rick is getting 60% to Kay's 24% among so called "strong" identified Republicans... the ones who are most likely to get out and vote in the primary. Medina gets 12% in that crowd... Rick is also getting 61% among Catholics probably because of his pro life stance...

Medina is doing best among "Liberal/Mod" "Non-GOP" who don't frequently attend church and live in the Austin area... yeah good luck with that...

Peeps who say being a "tea party" candidate is a good thing prefer Rick 51% to Medina's 24% and Kay's 21%...

I might be reading it wrong but it also looks like Rick would beat Medina 81% to 16% in a runoff. Kay would beat Medina 77% to 19% in a runoff...

Open some of the documents here and tell me if I am mistaken (link).

The major takeaway from this poll...

Kay is broken. Her brand cannot recover. Rick needs to go extremely positive from here on out to avoid that expensive and damaging runoff... Kay probably needs to do the same and maybe even think of attacking Medina to avoid being left out of a runoff...

Yet in a runoff Rick would roll easily... so what is the point?

One last point on this poll... 54% say they are going to vote early... another 5% absentee by mail... only 40% are going to vote on election day itself... early voting begins in less than a week. There isn't a lot of time for Kay to make this right. There's also not really much time for Medina to truly catch fire...

3 comments:

  1. Medina is a liberal interloper in a conservative Republican world. She has done a good job fooling some people that she is conservative, but do real conservatives oppose capital punishment and support a moratorium on the death penalty? Do real conservatives believe that drug dealers should be let out of prison? Or that drugs should be legalized? What about gay marriage? Would a true conservative call for the end of the Defense of Marriage Act? The list goes on and on. Prostitution. Make it legal? Sure, in Medina's fantasyland. How about casinos all over Texas? That's Medina's platform. Think NAFTA is a good thing? Medina wants to nullify it. Medina is a true RINO, which explains why she is drawing her support from liberal non-Republicans.

    Then you start looking at some of Medina's affiliations. Truthers. 9/11 deniers. Conspiracy theorists. Tinfoil hat wearing crazies.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Medina supports capital punishment, she doesn't want to legalize drugs or let the dealers out of prison. She doesn't support gay marriage. She doesn't support prostitution.

    She is strong on states rights & Texans deciding the laws of Texas.

    Her opponents are so afraid of her because she is a Constitutionalist who will support the will of the people, not lobbyists or foreign interests. Oh yeah, she doesn't support NAFTA or the Trans Texas Corridor.

    Glennbeckistan, I suggest you listen to Debra Medina when she appears on Glenn Beck's radio program today at 10 am ct to find out the truth. You can also checkout her web site at http://medinafortexas.com .

    The slandering and smear campaign is really Chicago style and not becoming of a Texas conservative Christian.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Medina is the Republican Obama, and everyone knows it. But with less gravitas, if that is possible.

    ReplyDelete

Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.