Is the bottom falling out from Kay's campaign?

It does appear that Kay is in free fall mode... and that she may in fact end up in third place if this continues...

R.G. Ratcliffe ponders the numbers (link). Excerpt follows...

AUSTIN — Gov. Rick Perry is far from having the Republican gubernatorial nomination sewn up, but a new poll indicates U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is in danger of having the bottom fall out of her campaign.

The political newsletter Rasmussen Reports released a survey of likely Republican primary voters showing Perry leading 44 percent to Hutchison's 29 percent, with activist Debra Medina following at 16 percent.

The spin from Kay's team has been loud and combative... "Rick is not at 50%, just wait until April 13th... people really hate Rick... never mind his 80% favorable rating among Republicans... Kay is really the most popular person out there and she will prevail in a run off..."

From some of my peeps I talk to in the media who were at the second debate in the spin room... apparently Kay's spokespeople lost their cool... let's leave it at that because I was not there, but apparently it was not a pretty picture.

I think Kay has to start worrying about even making the top two if there is a run off... and that remains a big if since Rick is knocking on that door of 50%... and Rick's peeps I have spoken with on the issue of a run off sound almost over confident... they just don't think it is going to happen based on the numbers they see internally...

I think if Kay does continue to free fall some of that will go to Medina but another big portion will go to Rick... Medina is a little too out there for some people, especially people who are big believers in the Republican Party and see Medina as out of the mainstream and a spoiler (link). Excerpt follows...

In 2004, she ran for county chair and won with support from Libertarian-leaning Paul supporters.

The man she defeated, Phil Stephenson, 64, still fumes about it and charges that Medina didn't support the Republican presidential ticket in 2008; that John McCain campaign signs were nowhere to be found.

“She's into Ron Paul, that's it,” he said.

Medina has said she voted for Republican George W. Bush for president, but not McCain. On her Web site, she has a letter of support from the candidate she hoped would be president.

“She has stood up to the big government establishment and fought to hold our party accountable to our platform and our conservative Texas values” Paul wrote.

She challenged Tina Benkiser for the state party chair in 2008, pushing for a platform that resembled Paul's. Benkiser defeated Medina, who later sued the Texas Republican Party over how the state convention was run. The suit was dismissed.

Nueces County Republican Chairman Mike Bertuzzi is as exasperated as Stephenson.

“If she doesn't win, she won't support either candidate out of the primary,” he said. “That's kind of a problem there, a real problem.”

It is a real problem. Medina didn't even vote for McCain and Palin in 2008... and she wants to be the Republican standard bearer in Texas in 2010? I think the pool of peeps who are that mad with Republicans is very limited... ultimately this is a family reunion and even the Republican Hatfields who are mad as hellfire at daddy don't want the Libertarian McCoys taking over their picnic...