Burnt Orange conspiracy theories...

Burnt Orange report gets a lot of play... too much play... in the media given their actual traffic and relevance (link). Sometimes they are insightful, interesting, and informative for a wide audience, but other times they descend into rank hackery (link), wishful thinking (link), and even bizarre conspiracy theory mongering (link). Sometimes I think they may write things just to get eyeballs.

The latest is a pretty weird blog by Matt Glazer about a couple of staffers on Rick's campaign who seem to have left for whatever reason (link). Glazer of course is trying to argue that there must be some kind of rats jumping ship type of thing happening... which doesn't really make sense. Here is the Jason Embry blog that set it off (link). Excerpt follows...

Leslie Sullivan and Krystle Alvarado, two top fundraisers for Gov. Rick Perry, left the Perry campaign after the March primary, the campaign has confirmed.

Asked about the change, a campaign spokeswoman did not have a reason for their departure.

Katie Wilson, previously the deputy finance director, is now the campaign’s top fundraiser.

Sullivan and Alvarado appear to have been quite successful for Perry, whose campaigns are always well-funded.

Sullivan is the wife of Ray Sullivan, Perry’s chief of staff.

First off, I have no particular special knowledge about why they departed the campaign, but Rick's chief of staff's wife is one of them... and he is still the chief of staff. I doubt there was some falling out based on seeing the writing on the wall and bailing on a sinking ship.

More likely, as is the case with many women in their careers, they are taking some time off to start families or spend more time with their existing families... I am pretty sure the Sullivans have young kids... and I don't really know Krystle Alvarado's situation...

It could also be the case that they parted ways for some other reason. Money, hectic work schedule, and other things are often reasons for people quitting campaigns...

It could be that they went to go make more money lobbying... or that they went to DC because a big national organization came calling (more on this later)....

The timing makes it seem like they possibly planned all along to leave the campaign after the primary...

At any rate, the blog by Matt Glazer is short sighted and politically foolish... he is trying to downplay expectations for Rick's next fundraising report. If he was worth a damn as a paid political operative... and from what I am told he is paid to write blogs (UPDATE... although he rejects that characterization)... he would not be trying so hard to set the expectations for Rick's fundraising haul so low... instead he would be trying to set the bar so high that Rick could not possibly reach it. That is just basic politics.

More than that... Rick has been out spent in almost every election he has ever run... as I understand it Rick was out spent by Jim Hightower... he was out spent by John Sharp... he was out spent by Tony Sanchez many times over... he had 4 opponents in 2006 that mostly used their money to attack him and outspent him collectively by a big margin... and he was out spent by millions by Kay in 2010's primary...

Somehow I doubt Rick will have trouble raising money. He did have that Money Cannon right before the primary that raised nearly 1.4 million dollars... and that Money Car that raised at least $71 thousand in one day just last week...

As someone who is well plugged in to rumors in Austin, I don't think there are any rumors swirling about Rick's campaign being in turmoil, except for within the headquarters of the Burnt Orange report brain trust (their happy hours). I do hear reporter friends and lobby friends and other people in Austin talk about what a "piss poor" "overly sensitive" "thin skinned" "amateurish" operation Bill White's campaign is running. A lot... there is also still a lot of chatter about just how Rick and his peeps won by so much... there is a definite "what did they know that we didn't" mentality in the Austin political world.

As far as Rick's two staffers go... I am sure they were great and everything, but let's be honest. Campaign fundraisers are mostly interchangeable once they have been doing it for a couple of years and get to know the players. That is the most overrated, overpaid position on most campaigns... basically anyone with a modicum of experience can do it and do it as well as anyone else. I have always felt that campaigns who pay their fundraisers an arm and a leg "because nobody else has those contacts and institutional knowledge of the key players" are getting gouged... only a candidate himself or herself can truly impact fundraising in a major way.

I have also seen some strong evidence that following the high profile victory, national campaigns and organizations are coming calling down to Texas to try to get some of Rick's team... including his new media peeps and field operations type of people... to bolt for "the big stage" as some in Washington call it... offering more money, a chance to work on a national campaign (in beautiful Iowa!?), and more exposure and opportunity for career advancement...

I guess we'll keep an eye on those positions too... and whether they stick with Rick or bolt... something tells me that it is actually pretty status quo at Rick's campaign... otherwise I think Jason Embry would have written about several peeps leaving...

UPDATED...

I guess Embry called someone who said they basically wanted more money and Rick's "campaign leadership" didn't want to pay them more money.

UPDATE: Several sources familiar with the situation have said Sullivan and Alvarado could not reach an agreement with campaign leadership over how much they should be paid.

Several sources sounds pretty strong... so I will take it at face value that this is the case...

Since that was likely the reason, it reminds me of that Texas Watchdog piece from summer of 2009 that pointed out how ridiculously well Rick's fundraisers were paid (link). Excerpt follows...

Records show that his finance director, Krystle Kirchmeyer Alvarado, who was formally named to her position in July, received a payment of $88,698.95 in January, not long after she and her husband, Christian, bought a place in San Antonio for $334,860.

Alvarado, a 28-year-old University of Texas grad, made a tidy $114,856 through June 30. Her peer at the Kay Bailey Hutchison gubernatorial campaign, Caroline Snell, made $29,197 in the same period.

Through June, Hutchison reported raising around $12 million to Perry's $9 million.

Read of her news on a MySpace post, where Alvarado reported:

Christian and I are enjoying life and having fun together! Christian is in his 3rd (and final!) year at UT Law and I'm still working in politics and loving every minute of it! Christian accepted an offer with a law firm in San Antonio...so come this summer we are making a move! After 8 years in Austin I am sad to go but I'll still be working here 3 days a week. I'm looking forward to living in a new city and decorating our new house! If anyone has any advice about being a homeowner - I'd love to hear it!

Since the start of last year, Alvarado has banked $259,598.

That is a lot of money for a 28 year old to make... especially in a position that as I argued before is completely overrated and could be accomplished by anyone with a rudimentary level of experience...

Based on that rate it is not out of the realm of possibility that she cleared 350 or 400 or more thousand dollars... maybe closer to half a million... over a span of roughly two years. Wow... like I said... gouging...

Maybe not living in Austin had something to do with the departure as well... San Antonio? That would irk me if I had an employee who only came in 3 days a week. If anything, you get detached from the action and the necessary relationships if you don't work at the actual office where everyone else is. If I had been offered a chance to work from home when I was 28, I would have jumped on it... but it would have been a bad move unless the entire culture of the organization is a work from home culture.