In the seven weeks since incumbent Rick Perry won the Republican Primary, there has been little change in the race for Governor of Texas.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Texas voters finds Perry with 48% support. His Democratic opponent, former Houston Mayor Bill White, picks up 44% of the vote, his best showing to date. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.
A month ago, just after beating back Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s GOP Primary challenge, Perry led White 49% to 43%.
Any incumbent who earns less than 50% support at this stage of a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable.
Perry has hit 50% only once so far this year, in January just after White announced his candidacy.
Rick almost never broke 50 or even close during the primary and his biggest leads in the polls were usually in the low teens, but he ended up winning by 21 points and avoiding a primary...
Opposition to the just-passed national health care plan is even higher in Texas than it is nationally.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Texas voters favor repeal of the health care plan while just 28% are opposed.
These figures include 58% who strongly favor repeal and 23% who strongly oppose it.
Perry picks up 75% of the votes of those who strongly favor repeal. White gets 89% of the votes of the smaller group who are strongly opposed.
The incumbent who is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor holds a slight lead among male voters and breaks roughly even among women. Voters not affiliated with either party give Perry a modest five-point edge over White.
Rick is with 2/3 of Texas voters who want to repeal Obamacare... Bill White is for Obamacare... and Rick has a 5 point lead among independents... there are lots of issues out there on which Bill White is with the small minority of liberal Democrats and Rick is with the 2/3 or more of Texans. Rick and his peeps need to highlight those issues, and they will run away with this race and never look back.
Texas is a state made up of fired up Republicans, independents who are angry at Obama, and a small number of Democrats who have to be a little shell shocked after big victories in 2006 and 2008 and the subsequent dive bomb their Hope and Change has gotten them. I am predicting a low double digit win for Rick regardless of what any polls say between now and then... it's just shaping up to be that kind of year.
UPDATED at 10:27 (link)...
Rick's approval ratings are up near 60%...