Rasmussen has Rick up by 4 on Bill White...

Rasmussen's latest poll has to be a bit of a craw in the side of Rick's peeps, but there are also some signs of life (link). Excerpt follows...

In the seven weeks since incumbent Rick Perry won the Republican Primary, there has been little change in the race for Governor of Texas.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Texas voters finds Perry with 48% support. His Democratic opponent, former Houston Mayor Bill White, picks up 44% of the vote, his best showing to date. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

A month ago, just after beating back Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s GOP Primary challenge, Perry led White 49% to 43%.

Any incumbent who earns less than 50% support at this stage of a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable.

Perry has hit 50% only once so far this year, in January just after White announced his candidacy.

Rick almost never broke 50 or even close during the primary and his biggest leads in the polls were usually in the low teens, but he ended up winning by 21 points and avoiding a primary...

Not to overanalyze here or put too much stock in this race actually tightening up... but the tax thing is the kind of attack that Kay made against Rick without success... while Rick bashed Kay on the issues all during the primary...

Tax returns and whether Bill White has released them is a critical issue... and I think it could be very damaging to Bill White if anyone ever wrote a media article about it... but what is going to sink Bill White is his liberal ideology and his Democratic activism, time spent in Washington, and closeness to Obama and Clinton...

Issues are what win elections, and people don't quite view "he has not released his tax returns" as a true issue... they view that as more of a personal matter in the same way voters rejected the "cronyism" tag Kay tried to put on Rick.

If Rick wants to surge into a lead, he should focus more on the issues and less on the weedy ethical cloud type of stuff. Let the party attack White on the ethics, and instead focus on drawing that distinction on the big issues of our time. Cap and trade, which Bill White said doesn't go far enough. Obamacare, an issue on which Bill White finds himself outside the 2/3 of voters who oppose it and want it repealed. Bill White said on camera that he wouldn't rule out raising taxes, and we have heard almost nothing from Rick's peeps about that. That is a missed opportunity if ever there was one. There are all kinds of issues that Rick's peeps should be hammering Bill White on, but they are focusing almost exclusively on the tax release thing.

Don't get me wrong... releasing his taxes is a nice hit... it may weave better into an overall leitmotif of scandal and corruption and shadiness that ties more to issues later on... but so far Rick's peeps have not been able to convince any of the press to write about this issue despite dozens of press releases about it and even a video or two...

Frankly I think that issue is sort of 2006... it isn't going to play as much this year. There is a general assumption that all politicians are a little crooked, a little shady, a little scandalous... I think the way to draw a distinction is to talk about the issues in ways that people understand...

The Rasmussen poll has all kinds of numbers that should give hope to Rick's peeps that they can crush Bill White...

These numbers for example...

Opposition to the just-passed national health care plan is even higher in Texas than it is nationally.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Texas voters favor repeal of the health care plan while just 28% are opposed.

These figures include 58% who strongly favor repeal and 23% who strongly oppose it.

Perry picks up 75% of the votes of those who strongly favor repeal. White gets 89% of the votes of the smaller group who are strongly opposed.

The incumbent who is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor holds a slight lead among male voters and breaks roughly even among women. Voters not affiliated with either party give Perry a modest five-point edge over White.

Rick is with 2/3 of Texas voters who want to repeal Obamacare... Bill White is for Obamacare... and Rick has a 5 point lead among independents... there are lots of issues out there on which Bill White is with the small minority of liberal Democrats and Rick is with the 2/3 or more of Texans. Rick and his peeps need to highlight those issues, and they will run away with this race and never look back.

Texas is a state made up of fired up Republicans, independents who are angry at Obama, and a small number of Democrats who have to be a little shell shocked after big victories in 2006 and 2008 and the subsequent dive bomb their Hope and Change has gotten them. I am predicting a low double digit win for Rick regardless of what any polls say between now and then... it's just shaping up to be that kind of year.

UPDATED at 10:27 (link)...

Rick's approval ratings are up near 60%...