The House may be in play. The Senate may be fertile ground for pickups. But no aspect of American politics will show evidence of the pro-Republican wave more than the nation's governorships, dozens of which will be on the ballot this year thanks to term limits and retirements.
Republicans are running well ahead in several Democratic-held states, while Democrats have their own opportunities to take back seats they believe are rightly theirs. But after a decade of Democratic gains in statehouses across the country, it's beginning to look like those gains are going to snap back in one fell swoop.
Previewing the gubernatorial landscape, here are The Hotline's race rankings, presented in order of a seat's likelihood of changing hands:
Related: House Race Rankings / Senate Race Rankings
Yeah... there is a tiny chance... the New York Times pegs Bill White's chances at 14.1% (link).
But you kind of just have to agree with the National Journal... which also explains why I blogged a lot more during the primary... it was a lot more interesting yet look at where that ended up... a 20+ point win... in November the margin will probably be closer, but somehow the race itself was a lot less interesting. I think that's because within primaries people are willing to actually choose. In general elections, it's all about partisan fans and turnout...
There are just more Republicans in Texas... and they are just more fired up to vote than Democrats... Bill White isn't breaking through... and Rick has done a good job so why pick someone closer to Obama? Why not stay with the person standing up to Obama on the tarmac... why not pick the person who helped Texas withstand the recession better than every other state... and why take a chance on a guy who won't even release his tax records?