Monday, September 13, 2010

Rick up 6 in Texas Tribune internet poll.... 39-33...

Taken around the same time the PPP poll showed Rick up by 6... overlapping at least by a few days... the Texas Tribune University of Texas poll shows Rick up by 6 as well... but this one has a crazy high number of undecided which doesn't seem to match most other surveys (link). Excerpt follows...
Republican Gov. Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White, by 6 percentage points — 39 percent to 33 percent — in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Libertarian Kathie Glass has the support of 5 percent of the Texans in the survey; Green Party candidate Deb Shafto gets 1 percent. And 22 percent of respondents — more than one in five Texans — say they’re undecided about which candidate to support with only seven weeks to go in the fall campaign.

Other state wide races looked similar... the highest anyone got was 43%...

The numbers:

• Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is leading Linda Chavez-Thompson 41 percent to 26 percent. Libertarian Scott Jameson has the support of 5 percent, and the Green Party's Herb Gonzales Jr. has 1 percent. Undecided respondents account for 27 percent.

• Attorney General Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky 43 percent to 26 percent, with Libertarian Jon Roland pulling 5 percent. Undecided voters represent 26 percent of the total.

• Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson leads Democrat Hector Uribe 35 percent to 25 percent. Libertarian James Holdar is at 7 percent, while 34 percent are undecided.

• Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples leads Hank Gilbert 33 percent to 26 percent. Libertarian Rick Donaldson has 8 percent, while 33 percent are undecided.

• In the only open seat on the statewide ballot, Republican David Porter leads Democrat Jeff Weems 33 percent to 25 percent, with Libertarian Roger Gary the favorite of 6 percent and Art Browning of the Green Party attracting 2 percent. Undecided voters make up 34 percent of the total.

Abbott is probably going to get closer to 56-60% when all is said and done on election night, so for him to only be at 43% does show that this poll must have really encouraged peeps to be vague and wishy washy. I find it hard to believe there are so many truly undecided voters.

If you extrapolate out the 39-33 results to the 22% of undecided, you get 47.58% Rick to 40.26% Bill White. That is probably being kind to Bill White though, since if you take the generic ballot Republican versus Democrat and apply it to the remaining undecided vote you get 49.56% Rick to 40.26% Bill White.

A few really bad pieces of news for Bill White are in this poll. Excerpt follows...

In the marquee matchup, White outdoes Perry in urban areas (41-31) but trails him in the suburbs (32-40) and in rural Texas (28-45). Surprisingly, the two are virtually tied in the Houston area (36-35), which was expected to be a stronghold for White, the former Houston mayor. The other metros in the state — D/FW (40-34), San Antonio (42-39) and Austin (46-27) — favor White over Perry by varying degrees. In the rest of the state, Perry has a daunting 47-21 lead over his challenger.

Self-identified Anglo voters favor Perry by a 47-27 margin; African-American voters overwhelmingly favor White, 64-7; and Hispanic/Latino voters give White a slim 34-30 edge. Women are equally divided, giving each candidate 34 percent. Men prefer Perry, 44-33. Men are more likely than women to pick the Libertarian candidate; 7 percent of men do versus 3 percent of women. And more men have made up their minds: Fifteen percent of men are undecided, while 29 percent of women say they haven't yet chosen a candidate.

Out of all of those numbers two things really stand out...

1... Rick and Bill White are tied in Houston... which should be a big strong hold for Bill White... but this does explain why Bill White is heavily running commercials in Houston right now according to my sources...

2... Bill White has a gender gap... people like to fixate on Republicans having a gender gap with women, and that is somewhat true, but Rick and Bill White are tied among women in this poll, while Rick leads by solid double digits among men...

Other things that are bad news for Bill White...
“The downside for White is that Perry is up by 18 points among those who say they are extremely likely to vote. White needs a big turnout among young voters and minorities to be competitive."
The enthusiasm gap... Rick up by 18 among the most likely voters... in a mid term election those are the voters who matter most... it could be that a lot of those so called undecided voters just won't vote because it is not a presidential year...


  1. That does look screwy to have Abbott down at 43 and Dewhurst down at 41. Both of them are expected to win solidly above 50 and closer to 60, which does go to show that this poll is probably underreporting Perry's support.

  2. an internet poll...surprised that Ron Paul didn't win...

    the numbers for libertarians in this poll are unbelievably high--every other poll has libertarians at 1-2%

  3. Anon, I'm going to bet Perry gets around 55-56 percent and White gets 42-43 percent in November.

    Latinos, I think Perry gets 25-30 percent of this voting bloc.

    African Americans, in 2002 against Sanchez, Perry got 15 percent of the African American and in 2006, Perry got 16 percent (high for a GOP gubernatorial candidate at the time), while Strayhorn got 15 percent and Kinky got only 4 percent.

    I'm betting African Americans will go 86-14 in White's favor.

    Whites: Perry wins this group pretty easily because majority of them are super conservative.

    The evangelical right folks will also be coming out in droves.

    PS: I didn't see any Bill White TV ads this week (hmmm, the KBH effect: when you're behind in the polls, start spreading the gay rumors).

  4. Ok... I have a serious question.
    Why the heck are the polls, which are released so close together, all over the place???
    It's driving me crazy! Rick's numbers range anywhere from 51-39. I mean, what the hell. His numbers should be around 60+!

    I think the most important question should be, are you going to vote? If so, who for? To ask who someone is going to vote for and not whether or not they have any intention to vote at all is messed up.


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.