Rick leads Bill White 46 to 39 in Texas newspaper poll...

Dave Montgomery write up the story for the Forth Worth paper, where Rick leads by more than 50 points (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry leads White by 46 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 15-22 by Blum & Weprin Associates. Libertarian Kathie Glass, a Houston attorney who hopes to cut into Perry's conservative base, has 4 percent. Green Party candidate Deb Shafto, a retired Houston schoolteacher, has less than 1 percent.

Eight percent remain undecided, while 3 percent declined to give a preference.

In Fort Worth, one of the state's leading Republican strongholds, Perry holds a towering lead of 69.6 percent, with 17.8 percent for White.

Why is it that Bill White can't get much over 40% in any of these polls? For all the talk about Rick not being up by 20 and destroying Bill White, the real story seems to be that Bill White is having a lot of trouble getting even into the mid 40s...

R.G. Ratcliffe put his spin on it out of the Houston Chronicle (link). Excerpt follows...

AUSTIN — Ill will toward President Barack Obama and a voter belief that Republican Gov. Rick Perry has helped save the Texas economy are giving Perry a re-election lead over Democrat and former Houston Mayor Bill White, according to a new poll done for the Houston Chronicle and four other state newspapers.

[SNIP]

"It's not an insurmountable lead," said pollster Micheline Blum, but "he certainly looks like he's headed for another term. … Perry has probably both the votes and the enthusiasm behind him."

Despite White and his allies spending millions of dollars on television ads attacking Perry this summer, Blum said the race has remained essentially unchanged since February.

Blum said voters seem to have made up their minds early, and she sees little volatility in the race. Blum said the voters who are undecided probably will not cast a ballot on Nov. 2.

The enthusiasm of Republican voters is dramatic. Among registered voters who answered the survey, Republicans held an advantage of 9 percentage points — roughly typical of the vote in recent elections.

Among those who said they are likely to vote, the Republican advantage jumped to 18 percentage points over Democrats.

That is not surprising but it is an amazing number... I just don't see Rick winning by only 7. I have said all along he will win by 10, and if that last number is true... if Republicans have an 18 point generic ballot advantage in Texas among likely voters... he will end up winning by far more than that. I think the peeps who will disproportionately show up are going to be the Republicans fed up with Washington...

More detailed numbers out of the Houston Chronicle. Excerpt follows...

Perry and White are in almost a dead heat in Houston and San Antonio. Perry is drubbing White in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with a lead of more than 30 percentage points in those cities. White holds a 7-point lead in Austin.

The two are even in urban areas, but Perry has an almost 11-percentage-point lead in non-urban areas.

R.G. doesn't tell us what the actual numbers are in Houston and San Antonio... but I suspect that Rick will beat Bill White in Harris County even if Bill White wins the city of Houston itself... Rick will also strongly carry Sugar Land, The Woodlands, and other suburbs outside of Harris County...

Wayne Slater adds the Dallas spin on it (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry is benefiting from an economy that's better in Texas than in other states and from an energized, anti-Washington fervor that forms a central theme of his re-election campaign, according to the survey by The Dallas Morning News.

"He certainly looks like he's headed for another term," said pollster Mickey Blum.

[SNIP]

In an anti-incumbent year, Perry's 10 years as governor doesn't seem to bother Texans. He leads among whites, older voters and Republicans, groups that traditionally turn out heavily on Election Day. He's also attracting more women, is far ahead in rural Texas and is dividing the vote in urban areas.

So... the people who actually are paying attention... the people who actually vote traditionally especially in non presidential years... the people who are fired up and saying they are really eager to vote... those are the people who support Rick. Meanwhile Bill White is drawing his support from all the groups such as Hispanics and young people that never pan out...

As Paul Burka explains based on the Rasmussen poll showing Rick up by 6, Bill White is destroyed. His negatives exceed his positives (link). Excerpt follows...

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posted by paulburka at 6:55 AM

The headline is White’s favorable/unfavorable number in the Rasmussen poll. If that is accurate–and you can’t make a living in politics by betting that polls are wrong–White is destroyed. What happened? Here are some theories:

1. It all started with White dilly-dallying about releasing his tax returns. It looked as if he had something to hide. If you can’t get over that hurdle, you should not be running for public office. These days, everybody has to release their tax returns. White’s refusal was amateurish. He let the issue cook on the stove until it was boiled over.

[SNIP]

So here we are, in late September, six weeks out, and Perry has essentially turned Bill White into Tony Sanchez.

My advice for Rick and his peeps... stay the course. Rip Bill White's balls off as you have been doing online for months... but you have some work to do reminding peeps why Rick is so likeable... put him on camera as much as you can in the millions of dollars of ads you run between now and November 2... put him in that Carhartt jacket... put him in a suit... put him in a blazer with a light blue shirt and no tie... whatever you have to do... just get Rick out there, and have him smiling. I like the first positive ad that became so controversial... but it seems a little impersonal... Rick is in a stuffy suit even though everyone around him is casual... my completely unscientific field research indicates that the ad from February with the Texas flag waving and Rick in the blue collar Carhartt coat worked... and it worked with Democrats and Independents... rally around Texas... rally around the guy standing up for Texas... rally around the guy who was maybe the first politician in America to stand up to Obama and federal expansion... back when Obama was sitting at 65% approval and before it became cool to do that...

Rick can basically run out the clock at this point if he can play a mistake free game, but the margin being 7 is a blessing in disguise for Rick... it means that his peeps cannot be complacent. They have to have a little concern and act with some urgency... yet they can choose to not engage Bill White... they can be confident and let Bill White and his peeps turn off voters with their strident rhetoric and petty sniping... and wow are Bill White's campaign peeps getting petty lately. They are desperately trying to get Rick and his peeps to engage... baiting them with just really over the top language.

By all means get every human being in Fort Worth to vote as many times as they can get away with... that 50 point lead in Fort Worth is just remarkable... but it makes sense since Forth Worth is America's largest Republican city but still.