Kay in RedState.com's cross hairs for 2012...

Erick Erickson has made a list of senators who need to be primaried in 2012, and Kay made the list (link). Excerpt follows...

As you are settling down from yesterday’s victories, you will want to also pay attention to this list. While many will be focusing on a potential Presidential pick for the GOP, we should not all get distracted by that.

We have a significant opportunity to improve the Senate GOP through some primaries. Here is a list of potential targets for primaries — these are all of the Senate Republicans up for re-election in 2012:

John Barasso (WY)

Scott Brown (MA)

Bob Corker (TN)

John Ensign (NV)

Orrin Hatch (UT)

Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)

Jon Kyl (AZ)

Richard Lugar (IN)

Olympia Snowe (ME)

Roger Wicker (MS)

Note that this is just the list of Senate Republicans running. Not all will be targets, but it will be from these men and women that the tea party movement starts looking for targets.

Now, before you all get giddy about Olympia Snowe, I would respectfully suggest that Corker, Hatch, Hutchison, Lugar, and Wicker make better targets as we have a much greater certainty of both beating them in primaries and also winning the general election.

I don't think there's an if... it is who...

Who will primary Kay? Kay's considerable and formerly daunting funds are now depleted. She alienated a lot of voters and made a lot of powerful enemies in 2010...

So who will step up?

Railroad Commish Michael Williams is a tea party favorite, but he wasn't able to raise a lot of money last year when everyone was gearing up for a race. Railroad Commish Elizabeth Ames Jones seems to have the ambition, but will she try to go against a fellow female Republican? Lt. Governor David Dewhurst would have the money, but he doesn't really have the tea party spirit in him... and the grassroots are less than enthralled with Dewhurst when he goes out to events around Texas outside of his comfort zone...

Attorney General Greg Abbott might be able to pull off a primary challenge to Kay... he is probably one of the most popular candidates in the grassroots... he has a giant war chest and a real ability to raise serious money... although his millions in campaign money is in his Texas account and it would be not transferable to a federal race... I am also not sure Abbott has it in him to "divide" the party as some might  put it... I think Abbott has designs on the Lt. Governor position and eventually governor itself...

There is also Roger Williams who has money, has demonstrated the ability to raise money, and has a relatively blank slate to work with being an outsider and not a real long term politician.

You also have to think about a dark horse like Rep Jeb Hensarling or another member of the House delegation from Texas who probably wants to break out and make a name for himself...

Debra Medina might garner some tea party type support, but her implosion with the whole September 11 conspiracy theory on the Glenn Beck show showed she is not really ready for prime time...  she might also face some ill will from Rick's supporters... it is Rick's supporters who will defeat Kay in 2012... so whatever candidate runs will need his blessing... and there is absolutely no reason for Rick not to give his blessing to some candidate. What does Rick owe Kay in loyalty? Can someone explain why Rick should be loyal to Kay in 2012? Anyone?

Revenge is a dish best served cold... and although his peeps have not indicated he has any preference or plans for taking Kay out in 2012, you have to think he has no use for her and will likely play kingmaker and hand over all of his opposition research and the play book to someone to take down Kay in 2012... the blueprint is out there... and the peeps who only went with Kay in 2010 because they "promised" her long ago might not want to waste money and time on someone who barely received 30% of the primary vote in March 2010...

Then you have to think about the Democrats... will Bill White turn to 2012 to redeem himself? Is John Sharp licking his chops thinking he can dispatch with the tainted has-been Bill White then take on Kay with a populist, centrist, anti Washington campaign bashing bailouts and Kay's long tenure and how she is out of touch and ineffective? Even Sharp would get just enough of Rick's supporters to go with him against Kay in that scenario... he could pull off an upset. Here is an interesting anecdote from Peggy Fikac (link). Excerpt follows...

Sharp likes Sharp

Call him indefatigable. Here's the text I got from former state Comptroller John Sharp on election night, as Democrats were going down in flames: "Number one Democrat is Jim Sharp."

Jim Sharp, a Texas Supreme Court candidate, got 37.25 percent of the votes cast in his race, the highest by a smidge among Democratic candidates statewide other than White, who got 42.28 percent.

"Not bad for zero money," noted John Sharp, who's got his sights set on running for U.S. Senate in 2012.

I don't see 2012 being as bad of a year as 2010 was for Obama and the Democrats, but it is also difficult to envision a Democrat winning a Texas senate seat in a year when the Republicans nationally will be poised to take back the senate and "punish" their "enemy" Barack Obama...

Still... I think Kay needs to not run in 2012... she is damaged goods and would not fire up the base and her former electability argument has gone out the window... she is not even as popular with independents as she once was, and for her to get the nomination she may have to alienate a lot of "independents"... although let's be honest independents in Texas are really just conservatives and libertarians who think the Republican party isn't conservative or libertarian enough...

Kay would end up being a drag on the entire down ballot ticket... which is ironic because one of her main arguments against Rick was that with him at the top of the ballot Republicans would certainly lose control of the Texas House...

Oops... Republicans now hold a record majority instead...

What can Kay do to get out of the tea party's cross hairs?

She would have to champion something really really big like Jan Brewer did... because let's remember Jan Brewer was known as a moderate who was not a favorite of the grass roots... until she signed Arizona's immigration bill... I don't think an individual Republican senator in a body still run by Democrat Harry Reid can make that kind of mark...

The only other way Kay can avoid losing in 2012 is to somehow get Rick to not just endorse her but stump for her... which makes no sense. Why would he do that? What does she have that Rick needs? Nothing.

It will just be really hard for Kay to overcome her pro bailout votes... against Republicans or a centrist Democrat...