Our insiders believe that Gov. Rick Perry is running for president in 2012 but don't that believe he should.
The latest Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune Inside Intelligence survey found 58 percent think the governor is in the race. But only 22 percent think he should run, while 70 percent say he shouldn't.
And it doesn't appear that many people think Perry is a real contender. In an open-ended question, his name didn't come up that much. Respondents were asked, "What Republican do you think will have the best shot at the White House in two years, and who do you think will win?"
They came back with a lot of Mitt Romney and John Thune and Sarah Palin but not a lot of Perry. Some of the verbatim responses follow; you can see all of the responses here.
• "I think Mitt Romney will ultimately be the nominee for the party but to win in the general the running mate must be strategic. Perhaps a Haley Barbour or John Thune."
• "John Thune will win Republican nomination and White House."
• "If sanity reins in the land, probably Romney, if insanity reins, Palin. Mitch Daniels is also worth watching."
• "Far too early to tell who has the "best" shot, but Rick Perry, John Kasich, and Chris Christie have good shots should they take the plunge. Dr. Condi Rice is an interesting choice for running mate no matter who takes the nomination."
• "It is way too early to have a clue. 2 years ago at this time we were all ushering in the Age of Aquarius as Obama was being carried to the thrown. It is a different world now and will be in 2 more years."
Romney? Really? He may poll the highest right now, but he couldn't even beat John McCain in 2008... I don't see Romney... nor do I see Rick running... I do see John Thune running but not catching fire when I think of the conversations I have had with grassroots peeps who feel like he is too much of a RINO...
On that last comment... the "thrown" should have obviously been spelled "throne" but that is the only response that really is worth anything...
My interpretation of these results... about a third of the insiders are Rick's peeps... and Rick's peeps in this collection of insiders all responded both that he is not running and he shouldn't run... meanwhile some of the neutral peeps and 100% of the anti Rick peeps responded that they think he is running but also said he shouldn't run...
Some of the responses though just show how Texas insiders should stay inside Texas and not try to be national pundits... although the insiders definitely were right in predicting Rick's win against Bill White a few weeks before the election...
Mark my words: 1) Perry will not run for president; 2) instead, he will be named the vice presidential nominee; 3) Obama will be re-elected; and 4) Perry will run outright in 2016.
ReplyDeleteIf he were serious about running, he should have agreed to debate Bill White to hone his skills.
Anon, I don't see Perry as the VP nominee on the GOP side in 2012, but we do know Perry will likely get reelected to a 4th term in 2014, which will position him to the White House in 2016 when an open seat comes up.
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