Will Lutz on the speakers race...

Will Lutz sez Straus is in the drivers seat and can only snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at this point (link). Excerpt follows...

Straus is still in the driver’s  seat. The speaker’s race and other elections have one thing in common – all else being equal,  bet on the incumbent.

Straus has released more than 100 names. At press time, fewer than 10 have publicly requested removal. Straus needs to keep 75 votes to win.

In past speaker’s races, the one who releases the list of names first is the one most  likely to win.

Straus’s strongest argument is as follows: the GOP won more than 20 seats after three straight elections with a net loss of seats. Is this really a time to dump the leader?

That said, it hasn’t been the best of weeks for Straus. Explosive is the word for Rep. Bryan Hughes’s (R-Mineola) charge that a member of Straus’s leadership team told Hughes that they are working on drawing a redistricting map that eliminates Reps. Erwin Cain (R-Sulphur Springs) and Dan Flynn (R-Van).  Straus said he doesn’t condone those kinds of tactics and didn’t authorize them and challenged Hughes to name the person who made that statement. Hughes obliged,  and the House General Investigating and Ethics Committee is investigating.

[SNIP]

Straus and his inner circle appear to be underestimating how big a problem they have with the Republican grassroots. “Oust Straus” is rapidly becoming a Texas Tea Party mantra. These folks aren’t kidding. They defeated two of his chairmen in primaries, helped defeat a bunch of his Democratic chairmen in the general election, and gave a few Straus lieutenants close scares.

At the 2010 Republican State Convention, the anger directed at Straus was palpable. Rep. Dan Branch (R-Dallas), a boyhood friend of Straus’,  got booed when introducing him. Former party vice chairman David Barton got a favorable reception when he distributed anti-Straus push-cards on the convention floor.

Straus seems to have launched an online effort... probably spending many thousands of dollars to bolster himself as a conservative... all while tea party activists and conservative groups are calling for a conservative speaker... kind of in a vague way...

The establishment does seem to be behind Straus... and Straus is definitely more of a moderate... but can the "conservative establishment" get behind Paxton or someone else as an alternative? It sure seems like an up hill climb for anyone challenging Straus because he basically has all the Democrats behind him, so he only needs a couple dozen Republicans...

There is already talk of Republicans mounting primary challenges to anyone who supports Straus... but how serious are those threats? If enough Republicans get together behind Paxton shouldn't they call Straus on his bluff and force 2 dozen Republicans to join the 51 Democrats? Wouldn't that peel a lot of support off in a hurry? I don't know... I am just spit balling here...

A lot of questions remain, but if I had to place a bet I would bet Straus hangs in there... a lot of conservative leaders have come out against Straus but frankly the media's focus on the religious controversy probably helped stall the opposition to Straus because nobody wants to be seen as anti-Jewish... unless Paxton starts collecting a drip drop drip of names, or a big set of names all at once... it looks like it is all just a lot of noise among outsiders... more insiders are going to have to decommit from Straus or I don't see him losing his position...