Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Rick did well among latinos...

Last week the liberal blogger Phillip Martin of the failed Matt Angle experiment the Texas Democratic Trust tweeted that Bill White got 80% of the Hispanic vote (link). Excerpt follows...

80% voted for @billwhitefortx RT @2centavos: Latinos Remain Solid Democrats: http://wp.me/px9uw-1Jr
 via Echofon

First of all that makes no sense... if Bill White really got 80% of the latino vote he would have gotten a lot more than 42% of the vote...

Second that 80% number was based on a poll by the SEIU and others... not really a credible source...

What is strange is that the poll was an election eve poll but that even after the real results were in Phillip Martin would still risk his already shaky credibility by tweeting something that is obviously not true. Again if Bill White had won over 80% of the latino vote he wouldn't have necessarily won but he would have at least been substantially closer than he was... he may have avoided being totally blown out as he was...

If you follow Martin's link it takes you to a liberal blog called Dos Centavos that claims Rick got 19% of the vote... which makes no sense at all numerically speaking...

The Houston Chronicle has some numbers that are getting a lot closer to making sense (link). Excerpt follows...
Hispanics gave GOP a boost in Texas
They add five to state House ranks; low voter turnout may have hurt Dems
AUSTIN — Democrats waiting for Texas' growing Hispanic population to put them back in the statewide winner's circle are still waiting. This year, Hispanic voters helped Republicans across the state.
[SNIP]
Hispanics also played a key role in Gov. Rick Perry's re-election, despite Democrat Bill White's extensive courtship of South Texas and large urban populations.
[SNIP]

Republicans have a formula for statewide success that matches an Anglo majority with a third or more of the Hispanic turnout to equal victory. Media consultant Lionel Sosa, of San Antonio, said the Republican vote grew from 8 percent of Hispanics casting ballots in 1978, when it first was targeted by then-U.S. Sen. John Tower, to about 37 percent this year. "This is a new revolution that is happening in Texas," he said.
Perry took advantage of this coalition effect in his victory. Perry spent more than $600,000 on Hispanic advertising during the last three weeks of the campaign.
While exit polling showed a majority of Hispanics voted Democratic, 39 percent voted for Perry's re-election.
In heavily Democratic and Hispanic South Texas, Perry captured 48 percent of the vote. Perry got no less than 20 percent of the vote in South Texas counties and took 40 percent of the Cameron County vote.

Rick won heavily hispanic Corpus Christi 53 to 45... he won tiny Kenedy County which is just a couple of counties away from the border 55 to 44... I think if some serious analysis comes in based on reality and not polls, Rick will probably end up having gotten 40% or more of the Hispanic vote...

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.