Maybe the final poll before the real results tomorrow... 55 to 44... Rick over Bill White...

Rick 55, Bill White 44, from an outfit called TCJ... The Conservative Journal (link). Excerpt follows...

Each poll uses a random sampling of 1000 Likely Voters (unless otherwise stated) and has a +/- 4% margin of error (M.o.E).  Poll that don’t add up to 100 are due to rounding.  Commentary on the following results will be posted in a follow-up post.

Texas Governor: (R)Rick Perry- 55%, (D)Bill White, 44%, Undecided- 2%

I know nothing about this group, but they seem to have polled many many races around the country... they have Carly up by 2 in California, Toomey up 6 in Pennsylvania, O'Donnell down by 5 in Delaware, Murkowski up by 2 in Alaska over Joe Miller, McMahon down by 5 in Connecticut, Brewer up 8 in Arizona, Republican Hurt over Democrat Perriello in that swing Virginia district, Republican Corbett up for Pennsylvania governor by 9, Tancredo barely over Hickenlooper in Colorado, Noem up by 4 over Herseth for the at large South Dakota seat,  Sandoval up by 20 in Nevada over Harry Reid's son, Palazzo over Gene Taylor by 1 in Mississippi, Jerry Brown up by 4 on Meg Whitman, Chafee leading two others by 4 in the Rhode Island race for governor, Kasich up by 5 in Ohio, and Rick Scott up by 3 in Florida over Alex Sink...

Some of those look somewhat favorable for Republicans... others maybe not as much... they are generally in line with what other polls are saying... even if the group doesn't have a good rep...

Just look at the Real Clear Politics average (link)...



Rick is up by 9.7 in their average.... almost right in line with my consistent prediction of a 10 point margin I have had all along going back to 7 or 8 months ago...

I said then and I say now... polls will fluctuate... some would show it "closing" others not... but in the end the margin would settle at around 10 points.

Looking at the New York Times 538 Nate Silver probability... Rick up to his highest level yet... 95.1% to Bill White's 4.9% (link)....

Bill White's political career may be coming to an end... unless he can make this a close race which would keep him on life support until he loses for senate in 2012. He and his allies did afterall spend far more than Rick and his allies throughout the campaign, so he should have done better than he seems to be doing. Everyone predicted the most hotly contested race in Texas history... everyone continues to say Bill White was the Democrats' best chance since Ann Richards... let's wait and see before making any broad proclamations, but it looks like Rick is over performing or Bill White is underperforming or maybe some combination of the two...

Finally... I thought this was interesting... a survey of "insiders" by the Texas Tribune... Rick is not only winning big time he is predicted to win at basically the same rate as what the New York Times sez (link). Excerpt follows...

Our respondents identified their own party preferences: 48 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat, and 19 percent independent. That leaves 2 percent "other." 

Interesting...