Rick and Republicans don't have a minority problem so much as Democrats have a white person problem...

A writer over at the Frum Forum wrote a very similar blog to the one I blogged this morning (link)... about 2 out of 5 hispanics went for Rick in Texas... that's plenty for Republicans to stay very much in power for very much a long time (link). Excerpt follows...

While election night was a rough one for Democrats in Texas, one of the hopes that Texas Democrats have had is that the Hispanic vote will eventually move the state in a pro-Democratic direction.  Latino voters helped Harry Reid’s re-election campaign in Nevada and supported Democratic candidates elsewhere in an otherwise difficult year.  The general thought has been that once Latino voters vote in numbers similar to their percentage of the general population in Texas (a percentage that is growing every year), the Democratic Party will be able to return to power in short order.

That may not be the case.  According to a recent Houston Chronicle article, 39% of Hispanic voters voted for Rick Perry’s re-election as Governor of Texas.  While that means that most Hispanics supported the Democratic nominee, it also means that the GOP captured about 4 out of 10 Hispanic voters in Texas.  This is not good news for Democrats.  Simple arithmetic can tell you that the GOP does not need to win most Hispanics over to maintain a working electoral majority in Texas, all they have to do is maintain around 40% of the Latino vote in their favor, coupled with stronger majorities among other ethnic groups.  In states like California, such pro-Republican percentages would be considered unlikely.  In Texas, this last election showed such percentages are not impossible for Republicans to reach for.

A lot of this is counter intuitive... why would 40% of hispanics go for Rick in a year when he ran half of his ads about border security... and illegal aliens killing cops in Houston... and in a year when the Arizona immigration law was so controversial and he said Arizona had a right to pass that law and he supported Jan Brewer even if that law wasn't exactly right for Texas...

Texas hispanics have not been radicalized and unionized in the way that California hispanics and hispanics in other states have been... Texas hispanics are upwardly mobile... look at peeps like Republican latino Texan Fred Loya who boasts one of the largest hispanic owned businesses in America in his television commercials... Rick made a big deal out of the 40% growth in hispanic owned businesses in Texas in recent years... look at hispanic or latino Republicans in Texas who won last week such as Eva Guzman who was appointed by Rick or Francisco "Quico" Canseco who won a Congressional district redrawn by the U.S. Justice Department to almost guarantee a latino Democrat's victory... look at state government in Austin which is dotted with conservative leaning up and coming hispanics at state agencies, in key positions in lobbying firms and associations, and in Republican staff positions... look around at sporting events like a Dallas Cowboys game or a Texas Longhorns game... you see hispanics and white guys sitting next to each other in the stands wearing the same jeans and driving the same trucks and hunting and fishing at the same places... the oil field might have something to do with all of this too... thousands upon thousands of Texas hispanic oil field workers can make six figures working just 9 or 10 months out of the year... with ease....

You don't get a lot of that integration in California or Colorado... or most other places with a lot of Hispanics... save South Florida's Cubans...

Texas has a unique political culture... and if Republicans can avoid walled off hispanic enclaves of 90 to 95% vote for Democrats... if Republicans can do some real out reach in the areas where hispanics did in fact go 75% or more for Bill White... if Republicans can build a base of just 30% or more in those areas they will stay in power for another generation in Texas and Texas will continue to be the country's economic center under our low tax structure...

In Texas... it isn't Republicans that have the hispanic problem... it is Democrats that have an anglo problem... Ken Herman elaborates (link). Excerpt follows...

Earlier this century, a wise man wrote this about white Democrats in the Texas Legislature:

"Once, not so long ago, they roamed in great herds. They controlled the landscape, and the alpha males among them ruled with certainty and swagger. But now, after generations of dominance, they've been reduced to endangered species and their natural enemies have marked them for extinction."

OK, it wasn't a wise man, it was just me doing math. I wrote that in March 2003, noting that in 1983, white Democrats sat in 21 of the 31 state Senate seats and 85 of the 150 House seats.

By 2003, it was down to three Senate seats and 19 House seats. The numbers have varied since, but when the first gavels go down in January, we will be down to nine whites (that's non-Hispanic whites) among the 51 Democrats in the House, including three locals (Mark Strama, Elliott Naishtat and Donna Howard, assuming her 16-vote win stands up). Howard stands an excellent chance of becoming chair of the House White Female Democratic Caucus. That's because she'll be the sole member of that caucus. Maybe it's a good thing that Ann Richards isn't around to see this.

[SNIP]

Further trouble for Democrats: Texas Republicans get to claim increasing diversity. The GOP caucus in the House next year will include two blacks (up from none last year and only one — Ron Givens of Lubbock, 1985-89 — in the 20th century) and four (or five) additional Hispanics. The two new black GOPers in the House will be James White of Hillister, who ousted Democrat Jim McReynolds of Lufkin, and Stefani Carter of Dallas, who beat incumbent Democrat Carol Kent.

The new Hispanic Republicans will be Raul Torres of Corpus Christi, Jose Aliseda of Beeville, Larry Gonzales of Round Rock and John Garza of San Antonio. All except Garza defeated incumbent Democratic Hispanics. Garza beat incumbent David Liebowitz.

"Wave" elections like this sometimes mask long term problems for the winning party but they can also unmask problems in the losing party... if 65% or more of white voters stick with Republicans in the future (Rick got around 70% of white voters) in Texas then Democrats will need to begin winning 80 or 90% of hispanics and more like 99% of black voters (as opposed to 88% of African Americans that Bill White supposedly won last week)... if white Democrats outside of lily white liberal Austin entirely become extinct in Texas in the next election... and they are already close to that right now... that is a huge huge problem for liberals who hope to take over Texas before about maybe 2040...

Finally... I don't know much about black Republican state rep elect Stefani Carter, but I have heard whispers from the Austin crowd that she could end up being a big big star in the Republican party not just in Texas but in the country if in the next year she successfully navigates the various minefields that trip up so many freshmen...

There just aren't a lot of potential stars like that right now on the other side... except maybe mayor Castro in San Antonio whose name is already being floated as a 2014 gubernatorial nominee...