Monday, November 15, 2010

Who will beat Kay in the 2012 primary?

I keep thinking there can be no way Kay is running again for reelection in 2012 based on her crazy actions such as opposing earmark reform or supporting Lisa Murkowski or abstaining from voting on something that could have bolstered her pro life claim... yes she already broke her initial 2 term promise to run for her third term... so running for a fourth 6 year term would not be shocking... but she will lose if she tries to run again... she may end up being the only sitting senator in Texas history to lose a gubernatorial primary then lose a senatorial primary two years later...

The Fix has some of the rumors (link). Excerpt follows...

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison could be the first primary casualty of 2012.
The Texas Republican, after years of back and forth over whether she will or won't retire, will have to make a decision soon about 2012. Waiting in the wings are a slate of Republicans who have already spent two years eyeing the race, including some who are prepared to run against her even if she seeks reelection.
Hutchison was on the wrong end of a bruising, lopsided primary loss in March to Gov. Rick Perry (R) in which she saw her sterling public image take a big hit. Perry, who began the race as an underdog in the minds of many, nailed Hutchison over her vote for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailout and her ties to Washington. He wound up beating her by more than 20 points.

Observers say Hutchison is vulnerable for the very same reasons she got destroyed in the governor's primary: TARP and her more mainstream Republican politics. Though she was once the most popular politician in the state, that is no longer the case. A poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling in September showed just 56 percent of Republicans approved of Hutchison, and she was at just 34 percent in a ballot test against Michael Williams -- horrible territory for an incumbent.
Williams was at just 13 percent in the head-to-head, but much of that is because people don't know who he is. When Hutchison was matched up against a generic "more conservative challenger," that challenger beat her 62 percent to 25 percent.
That's not a perfect comparison -- a generic candidate almost always does better than one with his or her own foibles -- and Hutchison has plenty of time to restore her image, but the poll does suggest plenty of vulnerability.
What's more, Texas's primary system works against Hutchison. That's because it includes a runoff, which means a wide field of Republicans could run against her, and as long as they held her below 50 percent, she would face a one-on-one matchup in which the anti-Hutchison vote could coalesce around one candidate.
Hutchison is keeping her political plans close to the vest and has been known (see above) to change her mind. But plenty of people think she's running and are gearing up for that very real possibility.

I don't know if these are trial balloons or what... but Kay will be primaried... likely by more than one opponent... someone will emerge... perhaps in a primary runoff... and beat her.

Advice to Kay... don't try to run in 2012. The argument that it's "your turn" doesn't hold water this time. You won't have the backing of the peeps who "promised" back in 2006 they would support you in 2010... just go out gracefully at this point... and stop having your staffers threaten bloggers from their federal office computers... yes... that has happened. You might want to get that under control...


  1. Please, no more Kay Beltway Hutchison!   Beltway Kay can retire and do what she does best which is work for lobbyists.   Texas deserves better!

  2. Martywd, Dewhurst is likely running for KBH's Senate seat in 2012 and ultimately win the whole thing because folks are sick and tired of KBH's lying over and over.

  3. White is officially FINISHED with politics altogether, so now he can do his business profiteering from Rita and stay there.


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.