Monday, August 23, 2010

Latest Rasmussen... Rick still up big... 49-41...

Despite Bill White spending millions of dollars on television commercials... despite 3 or 4 million dollars perhaps in negative ads against Rick from Steve Mostyn's strange little Back to Basics project...

Despite all of that, Rick is up 49-41, virtually identical to one month ago (link). Excerpt follows...

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Perry earning 49% support, while Democrat Bill White, a former mayor of Houston, receives 41% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

The race remains Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Last month, Perry held a nearly identical 50% to 41% advantage over White. In match-ups since February, Perry’s support has ranged from 47% to 51%. White has earned 38% to 44% of the vote in that same period.

White faces a tough race in a state that trends conservative Republican, especially given the national electoral mood.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Texas voters consider Perry a conservative. Forty-two percent (42%) view White as a liberal, while another 29% describe him as a moderate.

Despite the perceived differences in ideology, 51% of voters in the state describe Perry’s political views as mainstream, and 52% say the same of White's views. Thirty-three percent (33%) brand Perry's views as extreme, and 29% think White's are extreme.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Texas was conducted on August 22, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Other data from this survey will be released later this week at

Perry is favored by 72% of Republicans, while 84% of Democrats support White. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, the Republican leads by a 59% to 33% margin.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters in the state approve of the job Perry is doing as governor. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove. These numbers, too, have held steady for months.

Twenty percent (20%) of voters in Texas have a Very Favorable opinion of Perry, while 20% view him Very Unfavorably.
White is regarded Very Favorably by 19% and Very Unfavorably by 18%.

Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Texas voters approve of how President Obama is doing his job. Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove. This is a much higher level of disapproval than is found nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Look at those independent voter numbers... Rick leads 59-33 among independent voters... that has to hurt Bill White like a punch right to his kidneys... his whole strategy depends on winning those voters.

I would be very discouraged if I were Bill White... he just can't get any traction. He is "working so hard" scurrying around trying to visit all the counties in Texas... he has a huge staff... he is out spending Rick on the air... it is like Rick is just absorbing all of the body blows one after another without really punching back except via the web...

When Rick cranks up his television ads in another month or 6 weeks... I think you'll see his numbers go back up... likely by a few points or more... and Bill White may lose ground because in some ways he is still a blank canvass for a lot of voters. A few negative ads against him, and he could easily fall below 40%.

How much depends on how on top of their game the Rick campaign ad peeps are. David Weeks is known for being great at making very simple, to the point, wham bam thank you ma'am kinds of commercials... not super frilly or creative or artistic, but deadly effective.

What to attack Bill White on though? There are so many angles for Rick's peeps to exploit... choosing correctly may be hard. Do you go the corruption route? Or just strictly hit him on policies? Maybe a little of both? Which issues to choose? The military voter disenfranchisement thing has to be up there, and his refusal to rule out higher taxes... oh to be a fly on the wall in those meetings...


Bill White has a 50% favorability, and a 41% unfavorability (link).
With no television or radio ads, Rick's peeps have helped drive Bill White's negatives upward...

Rick has a 61% favorability, and a 37% unfavorability (link).
The trend line is positive for Rick since the primary...

Having such a high unfavorability rating already is absolutely devastating for Bill White's team. His efforts and expenditures have not moved the dial at all, and he has essentially no path to victory. Their latest stunt of calling Rick a "coward" in newspapers is just going to backfire. Watch. It is juvenile and unbecoming of a gubernatorial campaign.

1 comment:

  1. Bill White is one of the most uninspiring candidates I have seen in a long time, given his resources. Usually to get those resources, you have to inspire something in people. He seems a little Manchurian Candidate-like. Who is pulling those strings? People who hate the current Governor, I guess.


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.