Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Dewhurst's move means Kay may not resign?

David Dewhurst shocked the Texas political world when he announced he was running for reelection as Lt. Governor (link). Dewhurst had recently spoken with Kay before making his move. I think it seems pretty obvious that Kay told Dewhurst that she may not actually resign before the primary... and since she is such a long shot to win the primary these days, politicians are hedging their bets. Dewhurst's move to me means that he does not believe Kay will resign... and if she stays in the race for gov that she will not win...

Who believes Kay can win at this point? The Texas Democrats don't seem to think she has a chance. All of the interest groups endorsing Rick don't seem to think she has a chance. Most people who felt like she would win one year ago now believe Rick will beat her like a red headed step child.

Dewhurst is probably one of those people and his move is basically him saying so without having to say so.

Blue Dot Blues sums it up well (link)...

But, you protest, KBH is resigning! She said she would this fall! Etc blah blah whinycakes. What we've actually heard from her and her campaign is a big vat of conflicting gobbledygook. And why? Because very smart people are saying that it would be a mistake for her to resign before the primary election. It would force a lame-duck appointment on Perry's behalf - it would be the only thing he would have left to do as governor that could make any kind of impact. But then again, why would she want to put so much power in Perry's hands? If she waits, runs a successful primary campaign, and pulls it off next November, she'll be in a position to name her own successor. The political wind is beginning to whisper that Kay ain't resigning this fall, or even before the primary.

If it's true and she's not resigning, well, Dewhurst's announcement suddenly makes heaps of sense. Even if he is angling for the appointment, there is no guarantee of when it will happen, and he wants to keep making his mark in Texas politics. Best thing for him to do is file and run in the primary, in order that he has a shot at remaining lieutenant governor - and hopefully scaring off primary challengers in the meantime.

Burka also sez (link)...
Two more reasons why Dewhurst decided to announce that he is running for reelection:
(1) I am told by two sources that he called Hutchison to ask about her plans — was she going to resign her seat and if so, when — and he did not like the answer that he got.
(2) Word reached him that Abbott has been saying around town that he was going to run for lieutenant governor. For once, Dewhurst didn’t dither around. His announcement made it much more problematic for Abbott to get in the race. As with KBH, he would have to explain why he is taking on a strong incumbent and dividing the party.

Kay should have resigned a year ago or more... or just not run in 2006. Right now if she had been out of the senate since 2006 she could be the outsider in the race... now she is a big Washington insider and the object of anger about bailouts and deficits.

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