“Things are seldom what they seem.
Skim milk masquerades as cream.”
–Gilbert and Sullivan
A reputable GOP consultant who is not engaged with either gubernatorial campaign has concluded after looking at the crosstabs of the Rasmussen poll that the poll’s conclusion that Hutchison is leading by Perry by 2 points is unreliable. I have seen the crosstabs, and they are weird.
Monday, September 28, 2009
I am hearing a lot of chatter out there about the polls. Everyone wants to back the winner, and nobody is quite sure which polls to trust. Paul Burka thinks Rick is up by 5 (link). Excerpt follows...
I have no idea what to think about most polls, but I have a feeling that most people agree that Rick is up by 5 or 10 points. Day after day of lobby groups and associations endorsing Rick... one after the other... proves that the so called smart money is on Rick at this point... those groups do not endorse candidates unless they think they will win. Nobody wants to be on the outs when it comes to the eventual winner...
On the other hand I have heard that Rick's internal poll had him up by even more than that, and Kay's internal poll also had Rick up by 17. Who knows how accurate those are, but that's the reality everyone is operating off of.