Monday, May 24, 2010

Green Party buzz... that won't help Bill White...

The Houston Chronicle is reporting that the Green Party may be on the ballot in the race for governor (link). Excerpt follows...
Today, the Green Party of Texas will submit its ballot access petition to the Texas secretary of state. This is potentially bad news for Bill White and the Texas Democratic Party in two respects.

Most immediately, it signifies that White (along with Republican Rick Perry and a Libertarian Party candidate who will be selected in June) will be joined on the November ballot by a Green Party gubernatorial candidate. The Green candidate, who will be selected at the party's June convention (Houstonian Deb Shafto is the odds on favorite), will draw much of his or her support from the same group of voters as White, and will undoubtedly reduce White's overall share of the vote, something that could affect the outcome of the election in the event of a close race.

In addition, if White is unsuccessful this fall, Green ballot access this year could complicate his 2012 U.S. Senate bid. The Greens will automatically receive ballot access for 2012 if they get on the 2010 ballot and win at least 5 percent of the vote in a statewide race. The party is virtually certain to meet this requirement via the candidacy of Edward Lindsay for the post of state comptroller, where the Democratic Party failed to nominate a candidate to compete with Republican incumbent Susan Combs -- the person responsible for April's appliance rebate fiasco. A Libertarian also is running for comptroller.

White is faced with the dilemma of whether or not -- most likely via surrogates -- to challenge the signatures on the Green Party's petition with the goal of keeping the party off the ballot in the fall. The secretary of state may, but is not required to, verify the signatures on its own accord.
Hearing a lot of buzz about this... could shake up the race somewhat... cut into Bill White's base... take away a percent or a few from him but also dilute the Libertarian message and muddle other third party coverage. If there are too many third party candidates running the press won't be able to obsess over the one who will hurt Rick... they will have to focus on one who will hurt Rick but also the one who will hurt Bill White...

Also if there ever are debates... it won't just be everyone ganging up on Rick... you will have either none of them or all of them...

Too many third party choices for voters might though keep Rick from getting a strong showing and shedding that 39% label from 2006...

Really though with Bill White defending oil shale injections, off shore drilling, and other oil company practices the Green Party has a real opening to cut into Bill White's base... imagine if they had some money...

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