Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Recent poll recap...

Time for a recent poll recap.

Despite spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on television advertisements and Rick spending nothing, Bill White has fallen in the polls, and his negatives are up.

Rasmussen I covered already (link)... also Maslin I was one of the only ones to cover (link). Both of those show solid double digit leads for Rick over Bill White. Rasmussen also has this interesting nugget... Rick leads among unaffiliated voters by 15 percent and Bill White has a negative rating above 41% already without any of Rick's advertising on television (link). Bill White is toast in other words... swimming up current against a tide of anti Obama and anti Democrat sentiment...

There is another poll out that shows Rick up by 16 points, 46-30 (link). Excerpt follows...

A recent poll by the Texas Research Organization finds incumbent Governor Rick Perry with a 16-point lead over Democratic challenger, former Houston Mayor Bill White. With nearly six months to go before the November general election, Perry leads White 46 percent to 30 percent among registered voters, with 24 percent undecided. Similar surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports give Perry a 49 to 42 percent advantage among “likely voters” in the Rasmussen polling average.

“Governor Perry holds a sizable lead among active voter households, while Rasmussen Reports shows the race to be closer among “likely voters,” said Dr. Greg Hupp, senior research analyst with the Texas Center for Public Policy Research. “Our active voter model pulls the sample of registered voters from households with a known history of participating in a previous election.”

I think this may have been written before the new Rasmussen came out showing Rick up by 13...

It may be safe to declare that this race is in the double digit margins. Paul Burka declares that it is basically over (link). Excerpt follows...
The numbers speak for themselves. We are seeing an instant replay of the Republican primary. Another Perry opponent has been unable to find a theme that resonates with the voters.


You might as well pencil in four more years of the last ten years. There is only one thing that the Democrats can do to change the current political dynamic in Texas. They are going to have to win an election, something they haven’t done since 1994. Until the Republicans lose a major race–and the only major race that matters is governor–nothing is going to change in Texas politics. And it doesn’t look as if the D’s can win this one.
Now the liberals are trashing the Rasmussen poll... saying that Rick can't possibly be pulling 20% of African-Americans or only be behind by 4% among those making 20-40,000 a year, but the Maslin poll is a Democrat poll showing Rick up by 13%.... and this other TexasResearch.org poll also confirms the others.

Bill White... the more people get to know him the worse he will do... he is still a relatively blank slate and there is not much he will be able to do to convince people that he is a "different" kind of Democrat. Rick's peeps will define him more and more going forward... even as Bill White wastes money on television advertising this early in the game.

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.