How badly will Bill White lose? Will he crack 40? Probably... Will he get as high as John Sharp? I sincerely doubt it...
46.0 percent. This is the highest percentage won by any Democrat in a statewide race during the past decade. John Sharp (a potential rival in the 2012 Democratic Senate primary) won 46.0 percent of the vote in his 2002 campaign for lieutenant governor. Surpassing this mark would position White in the driver's seat for the Democratic Senate nomination, as well as provide strong support for the case that he would be a formidable rival for whichever Republican wins the party's nomination in 2012.
43.7 percent. This is the percentage won by President Barack Obama in 2008 in Texas. While the overall political context, as well as the composition of the voters participating in the election is distinct in 2008 and 2010, White's 2012 quest for the Senate will be advantaged by the extent to which he exceeds President Obama's vote share.
40.0 percent. This is the percentage (39.96 percent to be more precise) won by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez in 2002. Failing to cross this threshold would be a traumatic blow to White's political future.
Assuming the opinion polls are to be trusted, White is in no danger of falling below Sanchez's 40.0 percent and should, in all likelihood, also eclipse President Obama's 43.7 percent. Besting Sharp's 46.0 percent will be a much more difficult task, but, remains an attainable goal for White.
I think he will probably end up somewhere around where Obama ended up... but below 46% for sure...
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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.