Friday, October 22, 2010

More on Rick's double digit leads in latest polls...

The former state party communications director is now working for PJTV, and he blogged about the latest poll showing Rick up by 11 (link). Excerpt follows...

There has been a dearth of polling on the Texas governor’s race lately, but I have in my hands a poll that was taken October 15-17.  Its data set is on the large side, 1,200 respondents, spread proportionately across all of Texas’ regions and media markets.  It’s a joint poll by the Texas Civil Justice League, the Texas Farm Bureau and the Texas Medical Association, not an internal of either campaign, though these groups do lean to the right and the TMA and the TCJL’s PAC have endorsed Perry (the Farm Bureau did not endorse either candidate).  It has a 2.9% margin of error.  The sample yielded 38% self-identified Republicans and 23% Democrats, which isn’t out of line in this Republican state in this Republican-friendly year. Of those who did not identify with either party, 18% lean GOP, 10% lean Democrat, 11% don’t lean.  That 23% for Democrats indicates some significant erosion in their strength: in the history profile, 32% had voted in previous Democratic primaries.
If things hold up and nothing crazy happens in Houston, then it’s time to say “Goodnight, Bill White.”  Rick Perry will be re-elected to his third full term as governor of the Lone Star State.  The poll shows Gov. Perry with a 48-37 lead over the Democrat, with the Libertarian and Green candidates in the outer darkness and 11% undecided.  Assume that the undecideds break slightly for White since he’s the challenger, and you end up with this November 2 result:
Perry 53, White 43
The 48-37 is about where the numbers have been since Perry opened up his positive “Texas is Open for Business” ad run plus his security themedmedia campaign, indicating that Texans who may have flirted briefly with White have been reminded that Texas is in comparatively strong shape and have therefore come home to Perry. “Don’t fire the coach if the team is winning” seems to be the thinking.  Absent a very large October Surprise, this race is over and for Republicans, it’s time to run up the score in the state House and congressional races.  Early voting totals around the state hint that that’s already happening.  Early voting has shattered records nearly everywhere.

It is not so much that there has been a dearth of polling it is just that the msm and the Nate Silvers of the world seem to be ignoring them...

I expect several new polls in the next several days... and then of course it is all over.

1 comment:

  1. Well, all over except the crying and finger pointing.

    ReplyDelete

Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.