Bill White's chances of winning fall again... to 7.6%... Rick now 92.4% likely to win...

538's Nate Silver at the New York Times has not yet put in the ccAdvertising poll showing Rick up by nearly 15% in its calculation (link)... and maybe it won't ever... who knows... I don't know if ccAdvertising has a good reputation yet as a pollster... but it still have crunched some other public poll numbers and come up with Rick having a 92.4% chance of winning. Bill White has fallen to 7.6% in his chances of victory (link). Excerpt follows...

Rick is also projected to win 52.6% to 44.0%... getting closer and closer to my prediction I have had since the very beginning of a ten point win for Rick no matter what happened. Tens of millions of dollars later, and nothing has really changed...

Jason Embry in First Reading points to an internal Bill White poll showing him down 5... but again that seems to contradict other recent polls showing the gap widening... including as I said before the ccAdvertising poll nobody has reported on yet showing Rick at 50%, Bill White at 36%. Here is Bill White's poll (link). Excerpt follows from Embry...

In a Tuesday e-mail to Democrat Bill White’s campaign, the Mellman Group, White’s polling firm, says Gov. Rick Perry leads White 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with 5 percent supporting Libertarian Kathie Glass and 7 percent undecided. “This remains a very close race,” the pollsters write.

We should take this with a big chunk of salt. For one, while the memo says, “The study is based on a registration-based sample that simulates the likely 2010 electorate,” we don’t know exactly how many Democrats, Republicans and independents were included in the poll. And as we reported in this space yesterday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has found that incumbents governors who lead in the polls with less than a month left, but don’t register 50 percent support, have won their races with overwhelming frequency over the last 12 years. There are a number of ways in which this poll could be flawed.

Even if it’s true, White will have to do overwhelmingly well with undecideds the rest of the way in order to catch Perry. But it at least shows that there is math within the White campaign that says the race can be won. “We are within striking distance, and we have a plan to win,” White campaign manager Michael Moore says in an e-mail to supporters.

Michael Moore... seriously... that is Bill White's campaign manager's name. What a joke of a campaign... I feel like they basically re ran the Kay campaign play book and thought it would actually work this time because they are smarter and more talented...