A poll that has accurately predicted the outcome of ever governor's race since 1990 has Gov. Rick Perry leading Democrat Bill White by 11 percentage points in the home stretch of this year's elections.
The survey of 1,200 Texans who cast ballots in either 2006 or 2008 had Perry leading White 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Kathie Glass at 3 percent and Green Party nominee Deb Shafto at 1 percent. The survey found almost 11 percent were undecided or didn't know. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
The survey found Perry with 68 percent support among those who watch Fox News, while White at 57 percent support from those who never or rarely watch Fox. Those who said they use email often supported Perry by 50 percent to 35 percent, and he lead among Facebook users 48 percent to 38 percent. The men were tied among those who get their news on the Internet.
The poll was the 21st Annual Texas Interested Citizens Survey done by the Republican-leaning Lighthouse Opinion Polling & Research LLC - which does work for Republican and Democratic legislative candidates. The pollster, Bryan Eppstein, declined comment.
The survey, which was being leaked to reporters in Austin, has Perry leading White by 15 percentage points in the Houston media market and by 12 points in the San Antonio media market. White essentially was tied with Perry in the Dallas area, and lead in the Austin and border media markets. But White trailed in the Fort Worth area as well as West Texas.
Perry led substantially among Anglo voters and White among blacks. The Hispanic vote was more divided, with 53 percent favoring White and 27 percent backing Perry. The Republican formula for statewide victory in Texas has been to capture about a third of the Hispanic vote and combine that with an overwhelming percentage of the Anglo voters to produce a majority.
1. Rick is winning 50% to 35% among frequent email users... something that is hard to measure from the outside... but I hear Rick's peeps have a list of more than a million email addresses, and they send lots of specific targeted messages to types of peeps...
2. Rick is winning by 15 in Houston... umm... how does Bill White have any chance if he can't win in Houston?
3. So we learn that buying Facebook fans to inflate your numbers and then write a report that takes itself way too seriously doesn't mean anything? Rick is still beating Bill White by 10 points among Facebook users... perhaps Rick's strategy is not to collect superficial numbers but has some better tactics that Bill White's peeps are way behind on... if Rick and his peeps are smart they will keep whatever they are doing so well to themselves...
Liberals are bashing this poll saying there were too many Republicans, but I think they are in for some bad news if they think that is not an accurate reflection of the Texas electorate... in fact those with Republican primary voter history are only 36% of the poll... while 32% of those surveyed had Democrat primary voter history...