Friday, October 22, 2010

Turnout so far looking good for Republicans... bad for Democrats...

Campos Communications is posting daily vote tallies in Bill White's back yard, and it looks good for Republicans so far (link). Excerpt follows...

Early Voting in Person through three days today in Harris County was at 79,6787 as compared to 126,214 through three days in 2008.
In 2008, Kingwood was 3.9% of the total (678,312 in person) Early Vote for Harris County.  Through yesterday they were 5.1% (of 79,678).
In 2008, Clear Lake was 3.3% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday, they were 5.3%.
In 2008, West Gray was 5.3% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 6.7%.
In 2008, Tracy Gee was 3.1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 3.5%.
In 2008, Acres Home was 3.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 2.3%.
In 2008, Palm Center was 2.3% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 1.9%.
In 2008, Ripley was 1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were .8%.
In 2008, Moody Park was 1.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 1.2%.
In 2008, HCC was 1.5% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were .9%.
In 2008, 126-C was 4.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 5.2%.
In 2008, Ponderosa was 3.1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 2.7%.
Of course, we’re still learning about voting early in person.  At first glance however, it looks like the GOP areas are bit more enthused here in Harris County – at least through the third day of Early Voting in Person.

Paul Burka also commented on this (link)...
It is clear that Republican areas are outperforming 2008 levels. In other words, more Republicans are turning out in a gubernatorial year than turned out in a presidential year. Unless a lot of these Republicans are voting for White, this is a Democratic disaster. 
Yes it is difficult to read much into it, but it is hard not to just feel the energy behind Republican campaigns right now. There will be a lot of Democrats thought to be safe who lose shocking races...

Look at the crowds Rick is building in places like Conroe (link)...

The disparity is not going unnoticed (link). Excerpt follows...

In Harris County, the 2010 numbers are running three times higher than in 2006 and are approaching figures for 2008. Analysts suggested local voters may be getting a head-start because of publicity about the long ballot and about the August fire that destroyed all of the county's voting machines.
Through the first four days, 138,349 local voters cast ballots: 104,420 in person and 33,929 more via mail. According to the Texas secretary of state's office, through the first three days, 316,000 people voted early across Texas, compared with 157,000 at the same point in 2006. In Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis counties, the numbers are up significantly, although they are not as high as the 2008 presidential election.
In Harris County, Republican Party Chairman Jared Woodfill was pleased, pointing out that early voting numbers were up throughout the county, and significantly higher in Kingwood, Katy and other suburbs that are traditional GOP bastions.
"You look at the numbers, they're looking really good for us," he said. "We're thinking the independents are breaking for us as well, based on the polling we've done."
His Democratic Party counterpart, Gerry Birnberg, professed not to be discouraged.
"We're well ahead of where we were in 2006. We're ahead of where I projected we'd be in 2010, " he said, alluding to early-voting totals in districts represented by Democratic officeholders. "It's also true that Republicans are even further ahead, but it's way too early to read anything into the crystal ball." 

Also in Dallas the same story (link). Excerpt follows...

  The hard-fought gubernatorial race pitting longtime Gov. Rick Perry and former Houston Mayor Bill White was the most talked-about contest at polling places.
"We're very pleased with the turnout in locations that tend to attract Republicans voters," said Dallas County Republican chairman Jonathan Neerman. "When you have long lines in traditional Republican enclaves, you've got to be pleased, but it's way too early to know what those numbers mean."
Steve Tillery, executive director of the Dallas County Democratic Party, said the first day of early voting is always one of the heaviest days.
"We'll see if it continues," Tillery said. "Our plan is to turn out our base."     

Bill White can get okay sized crowds here and there, but as I pointed out in a blog I wrote already he is having trouble getting big numbers at his events...

Crowd sizes are a real indication of support in non presidential election years... Rick has people fired up... Bill White is boring people half to death... there is a real enthusiasm gap... Bill White can't seem to really break into the forties... Rick is right around fifty...

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.