Saturday, October 30, 2010

Rick at 94.8% chance of winning... Bill White at 5.2%...

Nate Silver has what might be his last set of polls to analyze... although he may run the model a time or two between now and election day with the existing polls (link). Excerpt follows...

The New York Times now gives Rick his best chance yet of winning... and Bill White's lowest chance yet...

The latest projection has it 53.3 to 44.2... getting ever closer to my 10 point prediction...

Bill White thinks the Republican trend in a Republican state in a Republican wave year is all made up (link). Excerpt follows...

Democrat Bill White says campaign for Texas governor is still far from over

12:00 AM CDT on Saturday, October 30, 2010

By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News

SAN ANTONIO – Democrat Bill White encouraged supporters Friday to ignore the polls that show him trailing Gov. Rick Perry and to campaign like "it's a horse race" that will go down to the wire.
"With four days to go, the results of this election have not been written," he told about 200 people at a Mexican restaurant in San Antonio. "They will be written based on what Texans do in the next four days."


At every stop, he played down a poll by the state's major newspapers, including The Dallas Morning News, that shows him 12 points behind Perry. White said the survey overrepresented Republicans and that the numbers don't reflect the more favorable assurances he's hearing at campaign stops.
"The assumptions under that poll compared with the reality of who shows up are way, way off," he said. "This is going to be a tight race."

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.