Wednesday, October 27, 2010

The "real" Texas Tribune poll...Rick up 55 to 35 among likely voters or 57 to 33 among voters who vote every election...

The latest Texas Tribune poll didn't screen out likely voters or voters who vote in every election, but if they had, it would have been a slaughter for Bill White (link). Excerpt follows...

Among all respondents in the sample, Perry leads White 50 percent to 40 percent, with just less than 1 percent undecided. Among likely voters, however, Perry leads White 55 percent to 35 percent, with 1 percent undecided. As you might expect from those numbers, those who are least likely to vote are also younger, more racially and ethnically diverse and more Democratic.
Other likely voter screens look even worse for the Democrats. What if we only took those 356 respondents who said they vote in every election? Perry leads White by 24 points (57 percent to 33 percent). The margins of error in these calculations increase as the voter screens reduce the sample sizes.

This could get ugly for Democrats...


  1. White is so gonna wish he had stayed in the Senate race for KBH's Senate seat because if Perry is leading by 20-24 points with 6 days left, we're gonna see a BIG blowout than the 2002 race between Perry and Sanchez where Perry beat the Laredo oilman by 18 points.

  2. I've been saying for months that White's best outcome is to lose by a small enough margin that he retains the ability to run statewide again.

    Looks like that is not going to happen.

  3. Anon, I'm baking on the 13-point victory for Perry getting between 55-56 percent and White getting 42-43 percent.

  4. Why did the Tribune bury this finding?


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.