More on the Texas Lyceum poll... digging deeper...

I already picked apart the Lyceum poll a little earlier (link).

The results on the Texas Lyceum poll are now posted in greater depth on their web site (link)...

From September 22-30, 725 adult Texans responded to a statewide telephone survey asking about their attitudes towards the current political and economic environment, the 2010 elections, and issues likely to come up in the 2011 Texas state legislative session. Since all numbers reported herein pertain to the upcoming November elections, they are based on a sample of 416 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.75 percentage points.

[SNIP]

Rick Perry has a 5-point advantage among women over Bill White (Perry 49%, White 44%). This edge is slightly greater among men, where Perry has a 7-point advantage (Perry 49%, White 42%). 

[SNIP]

Rick Perry has commanding advantages in the North (Perry 50%, White 37%) and the East (Perry 53%, White 41%), but trails Bill White in South (Perry 43%, White 49%) and Central Texas (Perry 45%, White 50%).

Observations...

First... 4.75% margin of error is pretty high. 416 likely voters is getting into dangerously low territory for a state wide poll in Texas...

Second... those regional match ups make some sense... they pass the smell test at least...

Third... I bet Rick is leading by about 3-7% among women... but I bet he is also leading by closer to 15 among men... that is my expert feel it out opinion on the matter...

Again I think it will end up being 10 points as a margin... that is my story and I am sticking to it...

You add the 14 point lead from this week and the 5 point Texas Lyceum lead together and divide by two, and that's basically what you get... 9.5... and you have to assume Rick gets at least a percent or two of the remaining tiny undecided vote... with Bill White also getting a small portion as well... that gives you 10%... not that averaging polls is condoned by political polling professionals...