A group called ccAdvertising, which had Rick winning by 24 points (see this blog's link from February 19) (he won by 21+ in the end) just a week or two before the primary, has released a new statewide poll (link) Excerpt follows...
| ccAdvertising Survey in Texas - October 12th, 2010 |  |
| On Tuesday, October 12th, 2010, ccAdvertising completed surveys to landline and mobile phones in Texas regarding several competitive political races in the state. ccAdvertising examined voter preferences on the Governor and Congressional races in Texas's 17th, 23rd and 27th districts. *Please see the attached PDF for more detailed breakouts and information on each of the races. |
| Texas - Statewide (Perry-R +14.25%) | |
| In the race for Governor, incumbent Republican Rick Perry has a 14.25% lead over Democrat Bill White. Perry received the support of 49.82% of respondents while White received 35.57% and 14.61% were undecided. President Obama's favorability rating stands at 37.74%. When asked party identification, 45.61% of respondents are Republican, 25.43% are Democrat and 28.96% are Independent. In addition, the survey measured voters' preferences on recent national issues. Support of the Tea Party movement is at 25.65% while 63.26% believe that Congress should repeal the healthcare bill, 69.35% of respondents are pro-life, 76.53% are traditional marriage supporters and 77.08% are Second Amendment supporters. Demographically, of all the survey respondents asked, 47.58% are male and 67.42% are 50 years of age or older. 1,510 respondents participated in this survey. The margin of error is +/-3%. |
| About ccAdvertising | |
| ccAdvertising is a leader in the communications industry, providing artificially intelligent personalized telephone surveys to commercial, political, congressional and non-profit clients. ccAdvertising surveys use interactive voice response technology (no pushing buttons) to conduct political polling and public opinion polls, to collect valuable information on respondents, to educate and notify respondents regarding current and relevant issues, to generate leads (sales leads, donor and volunteer acquisition), and to communicate with large numbers of people in a meaningful way. Using an extensive and accurate database of homes in America, ccAdvertising is able to provide quality surveys targeted to individuals based on demographic and geographic parameters. All data collected is provided back to clients in an easy to understand and useful format. Clients can obtain, for their unlimited use, mobile phone numbers identified, which can be used to direct phones to video or audio as well as other uses of traditional political calling including surveys and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) messages. Located in the Washington, D.C. metro area, ccAdvertising has built a customer base of prominent political, lobbying, commercial, and non-profit organizations. ccAdvertising is a division of AIC Communications and operates under several DBAs, including Election Research, Political Research and FEC Research. |
They have an okay track record I guess, but I don't know about their cross tabs... seems like they sampled too many older people and maybe too many Republicans but otherwise the numbers look pretty solid... see the cross tabs here...
Awesome! Your 10 point prediction looks like lowballing.
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