Wednesday, October 6, 2010

In poll with 5% more Democrats than Republicans surveyed, Rick still wins 48-43.

The Texas Lyceum poll is apparently out, showing, as Jason Embry tweeted... Rick at 48, Bill White at 43, Glass at 10, Glass also at 5, Shafto at 1, and Undecided at 3. Do that math. Obviously Glass is down at 5, not 10 and 5...

What I found interesting about the Lyceum numbers is that the partisan break down was 28% Democrat, 23% Republican (link)... which is so far off from reality it is not even funny. First off Republicans have a partisan advantage of several points in Texas to begin with, and this year it seems even more pronounced... so that sample seems like it is more than 10 points off in the wrong partisan direction, which makes Rick's lead all that much more astounding.

Some of the issue results in the Lyceum were a little fishy smelling too to anyone who follows Texas politics...

What is the deal with all of these polls? Yesterday's poll showing Rick up by 14 points screened out voters with a question of how often peeps vote in non major elections (link). Excerpt follows...

Public Strategies conducted a statewide telephone poll of 1,000 registered voters in Texas September 27-October 2, 2010 on behalf of BELO. The sample included 704 likely voters – those who say they vote in “most” or “all” school, local and primary elections. The margin of error for random sample of 704 likely voters is ±3.7 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
To ensure the sample was representative of the population of Texas, weights were applied to the full sample on gender, age, ethnicity and party affiliation. All respondents were screened to ensure they are registered voters. To filter for likely voters, respondents were also screened to ensure they vote in most or all school, local and primary elections.

I agree you need to screen out peeps who aren't likely voters... and you need to narrow it all down... but asking if people vote in most or all school, local, and primary elections probably narrowed it down too much. At the same time though I think that may have excluded some tea party peeps and other newly fired up Republicans who aren't super political year in and year out... unnecessarily. So it may have been a wash in terms of an actual swing assuming the partisan break downs were accurate.

It will be interesting to see how the new Five Thirty Eight projections come out with the 14 point lead added in there. Rasmussen may be due for another poll in another couple of weeks... and who knows maybe PPP will also do a survey... polls polls polls... my prediction of a 10 point win remains...


  1. You are telling me the generic ballot in every single poll favors Republicans by leaps and bounds this year all over America, but Democrats in the generic Congressional ballot in deep red state Texas beat Republicans by a nine point margin: 29-20.

    Yeah right.

  2. I'm still sticking with Perry winning by 13 points, because the new poll is DESPERATE for White's campaign, who are so hormone-raged and getting mad.


Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.