Sunday, October 31, 2010

Black Texans not really thrilled with Bill White...

Bill White snubbed Obama... and he is paying the price for it among African Americans in Texas (link). Excerpt follows...

There was a time when people would not tell you who they voted for in a political race.  But now politics is like a lifestyle for some. 
That leads me to my brief encounter last week.  I was chatting with a an African American man who's part of a union and very politically active here in Houston.  He identifies himself as a committed Democrat. 
However, what the voter told me was surprising.  He says when he went to the polls to vote early last week he left one column on the ballot blank.  He said he decided not to vote in the Governor's race in Texas. 
That contest puts former Houston Mayor Bill White against incumbent Rick Perry. 
I asked the man why he didn't vote for White if he's a committed Democrat.  That man says in simple terms he could never forgive White for snubbing President Barack Obama when he came to Texas a few months. 
That man is essentially saying he's willing to sacrifice the top seat in Texas government because of his perceived disrespect of the President. 
That is the tone I'm hearing from lots of African Americans who in some cases are pinching their nose for that bad smell as they reluctantly vote for Bill White in the Governor's race. 


What else could Bill White have done?

Well he could have been more honest to his real views and his real past... he could have embraced the whole angle that hey Obama is the president so we might as well have someone in office who gets along with him and can influence him and prevent the president from attacking Texas... unlike Rick who seems to be in a battle with Obama on everything...

Rick was always going to tie White to Obama anyway... Bill White might as well have not snubbed such an important part of his party's base...

Bill White running in boots...

http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_16463977

Okay... we get it... you are a "hard worker..."

Rick all over west Texas...

Great web ad made by a Houston voter for Rick...

This is great...



Filmmakers for Bill White... your rap was really good, but none of your videos persuaded... this video persuades... closes the deal...

Saturday, October 30, 2010

The Swiftboat veterans didn't attack Kerry's Vietnam service... they attacked his anti war activism and his lies about his service

In an otherwise pretty good profile on Bob Perry, no relation to Rick, Matt Stiles shows off his establishment bias (link). Excerpt follows...
 He gave $4.4 million to the Swift Boat Veterans campaign that attacked the Vietnam War record of John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential candidate. 
Kerry's anti war activism and his proven lies about his own alleged heroism needed to be called out... he was unfit to be president...

video
When people say "swiftboated" as a verb they should mean that a group is correctly pointing out something bad from someone's past the media refuse to talk about... despite his wrap me in the flag I am reporting for duty rhetoric John Kerry was one of those crazy anti war Vietnam peeps... not just against the war but the kind who throws his medals away and makes up lies and talks about American soldiers as war criminals and murderous "JENJISS Khan" thugs... he was the kind who lied and lied and lied about what was happening and also about his own record because he is anti war and that is fine... but why did it take the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth to point out that Kerry was not what he was making himself out to be... why did the media basically black that story out until the highly credible group of veterans got together to speak out?

The huge group of veterans in that video didn't attack John Kerry's Vietnam War record... they attacked his "useful idiot" lies about them.

An interesting and perhaps accidental glimpse into the news editing process...

A blogger named Unca Darrell has an interesting look at the editing process... basically one newspaper ran a version of an article, and another article ran another version... and it became clear that the editors didn't like a lot of the things that were critical of Bill White (link). Excerpt follows...
HERE'S WHAT we know for sure: 

Both the Chronicle and the Dallas Morning News ran news analyses this weekend about Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White's years as Houston mayor.  
The Morning News was considerably tougher on White ("Texas gubernatorial candidate Bill White gets a mixed report card for years as Houston mayor") than was the Chronicle ("Success, unfinished business mark White's legacy"). 
Both stories had the same byline -- Chronicle reporter Bradley Olson.
Now the suppositions:
That after the Chronicle's desk editors finished with the story, they shipped it to the Morning News.
That The Dallas paper published the story in substantially the same form as it was submitted from Houston. 
But that after the story was exported to Dallas, Chronicle editor Jeff Cohen came to the office late Sunday morning night and engineered a heavy rewrite, including insertion of a quotation from a campaign press release announcing Mr. White's run for governor.   
However it happened, the result was dramatic. Many of the Chronicle's second-round edits were technical. But other, substantive changes produced a frontpager that accentuated the positive (successes) and downplayed the negative (unfinished business, not failures). The result: a far more sympathetic portrait of Mr. White than Dallas subscribers were seeing. 

Interesting... I think there's a lot to this... makes you wonder how the editors spiffed up other articles throughout this campaign... and perhaps out right killed some articles critical of Bill White. I am told that this particular editor is very very close to Bill White on a personal level... perhaps he should have recused himself from the editing process on Bill White stories...

More analysis from the Unca (link). Excerpt follows...

The purpose of the rewrite was to make the Democratic gubernatorial candidate look better. 
Now let's consider what it means when a big-city newspaper takes sides, politicallly, on its front page. 
The article was not news, strictly speaking. It was a news analysis. A "thumbsucker," we called it back in my day.
Chronicle editors had an obligation to edit the article. That's what editors do, and everybody needs editing, even Mr. Olson. If you review the edits, you will see that several improved the story by tightening it up. That's a good thing.
But Mr. Olson's analysis was not merely edited, in a technical sense; it was deliberately rewritten to make Mr. White look better.
In the second paragraph, for instance, editors chopped the useful idea -- inarguably true -- that Mr. White had both significant accomplishments and failures. Instead, we are told, he had "significant moments." 

This may be one of the most biased press corps in my many many years around this game...

Rick at 94.8% chance of winning... Bill White at 5.2%...

Nate Silver has what might be his last set of polls to analyze... although he may run the model a time or two between now and election day with the existing polls (link). Excerpt follows...


The New York Times now gives Rick his best chance yet of winning... and Bill White's lowest chance yet...

The latest projection has it 53.3 to 44.2... getting ever closer to my 10 point prediction...

Bill White thinks the Republican trend in a Republican state in a Republican wave year is all made up (link). Excerpt follows...

Democrat Bill White says campaign for Texas governor is still far from over


12:00 AM CDT on Saturday, October 30, 2010

By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News 
wslater@dallasnews.com

SAN ANTONIO – Democrat Bill White encouraged supporters Friday to ignore the polls that show him trailing Gov. Rick Perry and to campaign like "it's a horse race" that will go down to the wire.
"With four days to go, the results of this election have not been written," he told about 200 people at a Mexican restaurant in San Antonio. "They will be written based on what Texans do in the next four days."

{SNIP]

At every stop, he played down a poll by the state's major newspapers, including The Dallas Morning News, that shows him 12 points behind Perry. White said the survey overrepresented Republicans and that the numbers don't reflect the more favorable assurances he's hearing at campaign stops.
"The assumptions under that poll compared with the reality of who shows up are way, way off," he said. "This is going to be a tight race."

Rick surging just at the right time...

There was a lot of discussion about a month ago about Republicans allegedly peaking too soon... that the tea party drank all of their tea... that the spark was gone (link)...



Boy was that premature... Bill White was on television for months and months and millions attacking and attacking while Rick was saving money... since Rick has been actually spending money he has buried Bill White... and surged...

Friday, October 29, 2010

Abstinence stats... Rick was right... it works according to the figures...

New data... abstinence may cause liberals in Austin to snicker... but abstinence is actually effective (link). Excerpt follows...

  Planned Parenthood pounced quickly after the Centers for Disease Control released a report last week on state variations in teen births. In a press release, Planned Parenthood asserted that the CDC report “makes it crystal clear that the teen birthrate is lower in states” where permissive sex education focuses on increasing condom use.
The mainstream media immediately seized the opportunity to publicize the view that abstinence education promotes teen pregnancy. This slant is peculiar since, historically, promotion of abstinence education has coincided with a sharp and unprecedented drop in teen birthrates.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, during the two decades prior to creation of federal abstinence-education funding, the birthrate of girls under age 18 did not decline. Indeed, during the safe-sex, condom mania of the 1980s, teen birthrates increased. However, after the advent of federal abstinence programs in the mid-1990s, the birthrate of girls under 18 began an unprecedented, long-term decline. The birthrate of girls ages 15 to 17 dropped by a third: from 3.5 births per 100 girls to 2.1.
Although it would be inaccurate to attribute all of this decline to abstinence education, it’s quite odd to suggest that the push to teach abstinence somehow increased teen births. (Incidentally, over a dozen scientific evaluations show that abstinence programs reduce teen sexual activity.)
True, CDC data show that socially conservative Southern states (which tend to favor teaching abstinence) have higher teen birthrates than liberal Northeastern states. This is so even when white, black, and Hispanic girls are considered separately.
But an almost identical state-by-state variation existed in 1990, before abstinence programs were a factor. As the CDC report indicates, state variation in teen births is heavily affected by long-term socioeconomic and cultural differences. What’s more, a state’s teen birthrate can be strongly influenced by the teen abortion rate. States with permissive sex-ed policies tend to have substantially higher rates of teen abortion. For example, the CDC report lauds California, New York, and New Jersey for relatively low teen birthrates. But it isn’t because those states have low pregnancy rates, it’s because they lead the nation in promoting abortion among teenage girls.
Contrary to the breathless claims of Planned Parenthood, there is no evidence that states with liberal sex-ed policies have lower teen-pregnancy rates. In fact, the evidence suggests that, after adjusting for important racial differences among states, those with liberal sex-ed policies actually have higher rates of pregnancy for girls under 18.

This is an issue few will budge on one way or the other... you either think abstinence education is a quaint 20th century abstraction... or you think everyone should be taught abstinence...

The stats show that abstinence education is actually effective to a degree though... so if you care about hard evidence you have to admit Rick was right...

Newspaper poll shows Bill White yet again below 40... down by 12 to Rick...

More bad news for Bill White (link). Excerpt follows...

Gov. Rick Perry has expanded his lead over Democratic challenger Bill White in the past month, indicating he's on the verge of clenching a record third full term, according to a new poll commissioned by five Texas newspapers, including the American-Statesman.
Perry, a Republican, has a double-digit advantage among likely voters and those who say they already have voted, with 49 percent supporting him and 37 percent backing White. Two percent picked Libertarian Kathie Glass, and 3 percent chose Green Party nominee Deb Shafto. The remaining 10 percent were either not sure or declined to say whom they support.
"Perry finally kind of seems to have sealed the deal," said pollster Mickey Blum of Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. "I don't think he probably feels terribly worried anymore."
White was considered the Democrats' best chance of winning the Texas governor's office in more than a decade, but now, with Election Day four days away, he is at risk of a sound defeat.
How soundly will Bill White be defeated? Not as badly as he deserves to be defeated... he is the most over rated candidate I have seen in a long time....

Even liberal PPP sez Rick headed to reelection over Bill White...

I don't really like PPP polls in Texas. They have not impressed me with some of their findings compared to the actual results... they are usually pretty skewed toward liberals.... so for Rick to be leading Bill White 53-44 in their poll... well... that is a pretty big nail in the coffin for Bill White (link). Excerpt follows...

Rick Perry's in a solid position for reelection as Governor of Texas, leading Bill White 53-44 on PPP's final poll of the race.
For White it may be a classic case of the right candidate running in the wrong cycle. He has strong favorability numbers at a 46/39 spread while Perry can only break even on his approval rating at 45% giving him good marks and 45% bad ones. White leads with independent voters 50-44. That makes him one of very few Democratic candidates anywhere in the country leading with that group this year and it's all the more impressive given that Barack Obama's approval rating with that same ground of independents is a 33/55 spread.
Ultimately though to win as a Democrat in Texas you're going to have to win a fair amount of crossover support from Republican voters and in the end White just wasn't able to do it. Just 11% of GOP voters are planning to support him, a number equivalent to the 11% of Democrats who plan to vote for Perry. In this highly polarized political climate Republicans just aren't particularly inclined to vote for any Democrat, even an unusually appealing one like White.

[SNIP]

It looks like Rick Perry will beat back a strong opponent for the second time this year. There's no politician in the country this year who's defeated a more formidable duo than Kay Bailey Hutchison and Bill White.
Full results here

Rick has indeed faced the gauntlet... the most hotly contested primary in the history of the state... the battle of the giants... turned out to be a 21 point blow out for Rick... and the most hotly contested governor's race in modern Texas history is also turning into a rout....

Bill White ran a bad campaign. Hey but they did spend a hundred grand on things like buying Facebook fans... so they could crow about having more Facebook fans while being smothered on television by Rick in the final two or three weeks because he ran out of money. Good strategy guys... good strategy... Another good strategy was buying hundreds of thousands of dollars in newspaper ads... nobody reads those things anymore... he also raised a lot of money in small lumps from a lot of peeps... but I would just guess that he spent a lot more on postage and printing... and web ads... than he raised off his small direct mail asks... in other words they spent a lot on things so they could come back later and say hey we have a lot of Facebook fans... or we have a lot of small donors... those were not organic... they were not indicative of real grassroots support...

Bill White's campaign had all the resources and the entire state Democrat establishment behind him... he walked into a divided GOP electorate in the wake of the sometimes bitter primary... and he faced a decade long incumbent with a long record in an anti incumbent year... but Rick's peeps are just better than Bill White's peeps, and Rick is just better than Bill White.

That goes up and down the list... fund raisers... communications peeps... researchers... internet peeps... field teams... grassroots outreach... event planners... in every way Rick has outshined Bill White.. even as the press has played obvious favorites and behaved unethically, Bill White has not moved beyond the Obama Texas base... In recent days I have seen a lot of talk from Bill White's team about how much better their ground game is than Rick's ground game... how disconcerting must it be for them for Rick to have no yard signs and no direct mail and no physical offices everywhere but still be destroying them...

It is guerrilla warfare at its finest. Psychological ops... Bill White throws up a fort that is easy to assail... Rick has safe houses on every block...

Let me just say "we have a better ground game, the polls are wrong" never turns out to be true... ever...

There is no evidence of Bill White having a better ground game. None... unless you also submit to the idea that Kay had a better ground game in the primary which is just as off the wall...

There may be no better campaign structure in America that Rick's cohesive team...

Bill White also may be one of the most over rated politicians I have ever seen... if he runs again in 2012 I think he will have an even harder time getting any traction... he is just so ugly and mean spirited... and there is plenty of material out there from Rick's peeps... as well as plenty of material I am sure they held their fire on...

The real Bill White record...

Bill White may get kudos for being nice to evacuees during Katrina, but he also left headaches in Houston (link). Excerpt follows...

But White, a Democrat, also quietly left behind budgetary headaches for his successor, a controversy over the use of federal housing dollars and a gigantic financial mess at Houston Metro, the city's lead transit agency.
White's mixed six-year tenure as Houston mayor, from January 2004 until January 2010, has been dissected repeatedly as he tries to unseat Republican Rick Perry, the longest serving governor in Texas.
White rarely misses a chance to tout his mayoral service on the campaign trail, while Perry has run a barrage of negative TV ads criticizing White's leadership, including one spot that claims it's "a miracle Houston survived Bill White."
[SNIP]

But some critics say White's micro-management skills abandoned him in overseeing Houston Metro, which didn't build any rail during White's tenure after a furious start under his predecessor, Lee Brown. The agency now faces a financial mismanagement scandal that federal transit authorities have called "alarming and disturbing." The agency had to tear up a $40 million rail contract with a Spanish company, overseen by White appointees, because the deal violated contract procurement laws.
The agency now faces major rail-line building delays, scaled-back bus service, jeopardized federal funding and an uncertain future for the regional public transportation system, experts say.
"I thought that somewhere along the line the red lights would have come on for him," said former Metro Chairman Billy Burge. "Bill White would never do a business deal like that."
Jones called Metro a "complete debacle" under White.
There have also been a series of problems at Houston's public housing agency, where officials might have to refund federal housing dollars on projects worth more than $30 million.
Bill White's Houston record has rarely been written about like this in the entire campaign. I am almost surprised some of these blurbs made it through the draconian editing process...



There is a lot more about Bill White that never came out in this election, I am sure of that.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Wall Street Journal sez Rick keeps his cool...

This article is okay... not really an insider type of article that gives us new information... but a good bird eye's view look at the end of this campaign (link). Excerpt follows...

DALLAS—Rick Perry, Texas's telegenic Republican governor, is facing an election challenge by a well-funded Democrat. He hardly seems to have noticed.
Mr. Perry is as likely to attack President Barack Obama on the stump as he is his actual opponent, Democrat Bill White, a former Houston mayor. He didn't even show up at the two gubernatorial debates, leaving Mr. White plenty of air time to attack his policies. (Gov. Perry vowed not to debate until Mr. White released tax returns predating his mayoralty; Mr. White said his opponent had no right to set such conditions.)

So far, the strategy seems to be working for Mr. Perry, who already is the longest-serving governor in Texas history and has been whispered about as a possible presidential candidate in 2012, though he has said he isn't planning to run.
The most recent polls show him leading Mr. White by 8 to 10 percentage points, despite millions the Democrat has spent on TV ads. In the past few weeks, he has outspent Mr. White.
[SNIP]
Observers here say it is difficult for Mr. White to overcome the combination of running in a Republican-leaning state when many Texans are rallying against Democrat initiatives in Washington that have been extremely unpopular here. Although Gov. Perry has been in office for 10 years, Mr. White has been unable to channel the fervent anti-incumbent sentiment in the state against his opponent, they add.
[SNIP]

While Mr. White rails about his administration, Gov. Perry's campaign has been wooing supporters by raffling off meetings with famous athletes and sponsoring a Nascar race car. Gov. Perry, who sports a well-coiffed mane and sometimes wears golden cufflinks engraved with a lone star, has a tough, don't-mess-with-Texas persona—whether shooting a coyote with a laser-sighted pistol to protect his dog during a jog, or suing the federal government over environmental policies he believes will kill jobs in the state.
"I'm beyond disappointed with a Washington culture that operates from the presumption that they're simply smarter, they're more responsible and better-intentioned than anyone else outside the Beltway," he said recently at an event organized by Texas Oil and Gas Association.
"He really understands the oil industry," one woman in attendance whispered to a bystander, as she aimed her camera at the governor.

Rick is cool... Bill White is cracking under pressure...

The New York Times also did a bird eye's view and found that Rick rarely mentions Bill White (link). Excerpt follows...

 “You can’t spend your way to prosperity — it’s impossible,” Mr. Perry said, echoing an article of faith among Tea Party supporters. “We are going to send them a powerful message on the 2nd of November.”        
Mr. Perry’s message, though, did not include a single mention of his opponent, Bill White, a Democrat and former mayor of Houston.
With a week to go, polls suggest that Mr. White has been unable to close in on the governor. As a result, Mr. Perry appears poised to serve a fourth term — unprecedented for a Texas governor — barring some game-changing development in the next few days, several pollsters and political strategists said.        

Nice... this reminds me a lot of the Rick vs. Kay race... Rick rarely mentioned Kay by name... the same thing is happening here... it is the rhetoric of a winner...

Liberal Illiteracy...

Empower Texans chief Michael Sullivan is debunking the Bill White and Dallas Morning News foolish notion that the Texas "deficit" is worse than California (link). Excerpt follows...
In California, they have constantly over-spent and over-taxed and over-borrowed, budget after budget, year after year. They had maxed out their credit cards, overdrew the banks, borrowed from neighbors and pawned off silverware. Spend, spend, spend. Borrow-borrow-borrow.
As a result, California has been exporting jobs -- mainly to Texas, thank you very much.
Texas' budget situation is completely different. Texas budget has not overspent revenues. What people are talking about right now, going into the 2011 legislative session, is a projected difference between what some want to spend, and the possible revenues others think will be available. There is no deficit in Texas, because there is no 2012-13 budget. It has not yet even been written.
That they fail to understand the difference says a lot about the economic illiteracy gripping the blathering left. Thank goodness they are losing.

Well said...

There is not a deficit... there is a projection of a two year short fall based on spending trends that people want to see and revenue trends others are putting out there by pulling them out of thin air as Rick has put it in the past.

Could there be a 20 billion dollar or more "shortfall" yes of course there could be... but you know what... we don't know what it will be yet... but when Rick "cuts" spending... meaning in reality that he doesn't raise it... and Texas doesn't fall into the ocean and Texas ends up without a "deficit" for any year of his tenure whatsoever... he will look like a genius even though really it is just part of the Texas system to require a balanced budget...

All the hyperbole now about the enormous "deficit" does is play right into Rick's national credentials by the middle of 2011 when the short fall is solved...

You know there will be people clamoring for Rick to run for president if he closes this shortfall without tax hikes... peeps will say wait a minute a governor who cut spending... wow... just what we need in Washington... and I still think Rick will turn those calls down as I have written about extensively in a few blogs here.

Others will write editorials about how Texas simply can't cut any more from our already bare bones budget and how the poor and children will be put out into the street begging and how it will ruin our schools and make businesses go to other states... but you know what... in the long term and even the short term people will look and see that Texas and our balanced budget amendment is how you do it... and Texas will continue to buck the trends...

Bill White delivering the attack "softens" it?

Jason Embry has this idea that Bill White delivering a meanspirited attack against Rick makes it softer (link). Excerpt follows...

One candidate in the race for governor has a killer instinct. We should not be surprised that he's winning.
Republican Gov. Rick Perry is the best street fighter in Texas politics, as we were again reminded this week when he launched an ad linking Democratic challenger Bill White to the murder of a Houston police officer.
The officer, Rodney Johnson, was shot and killed by Juan Leonardo Quintero, an undocumented immigrant handcuffed in the back of Johnson's patrol car during a 2006 traffic stop. Johnson had not found the gun hidden in Quintero's waistband before putting him in the car. Sgt. Joslyn Johnson, herself a Houston police officer and Rodney Johnson's widow, says in Perry's ad that White failed to adopt immigration policies that protected police when he was Houston mayor.
White called the ad shameless, and then Perry did something even more extraordinary. According to The Associated Press, Perry told reporters in Houston that if White had problems with Joslyn Johnson's words, "he needs to have that conversation with her."
Classic Perry: You don't like how I used a grieving widow in a campaign ad? Your problem is with the widow. Don't like how I govern Texas? Your problem is with Texas.
[SNIP]
Neither Perry nor White can claim to have run a positive campaign, and that's fine, because winning candidates in close races usually don't. But White has softened several of his anti-Perry commercials by using his own voice to talk about his vision for the state, and that's left some politicos wondering whether he has it in him to cut a truly negative ad. Perry, meanwhile, has hit as hard as ever.

I think a candidate delivering a personal attack against the other candidate in a paid ad is one of the worst things you can do... just a bad bad bad bad idea...

Bill White delivering an attack drove his own negatives sky high. The attacks didn't really stick because they were weak attacks... and not credible...

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

World Series making Rick antsy? Funny top ten list...

A funny top ten list about Rick and the whole Texas versus San Francisco thing is making its way around (link). Excerpt follows...

Top 10 reasons Texas Gov. Rick Perry is nervous about the World Series
The Rangers are set to face off against the San Francisco Giants in the World Series, but ultra-conservative Texas Gov. Rick Perry isn’t too excited about it. Here’s why:
10. He thinks the people of San Francisco might get the wrong impression when he shows up to the stadium in his trademark chaps.
9. According to the Texas Board of Education, San Francisco is actually part of France, and he doesn’t even have a valid passport.
8. What if someone at AT&T Park tries to make him eat sushi? That’s a sin, right?

7. He already promised Texas voters he would buy every one of them an authentic Philly cheese steak.

6. Former Rangers owner George W. Bush told him if a team from Nancy Pelosi’s home state wins, then so do the terrorists.

5. He heard a bizarre rumor that concealed weapons are prohibited at AT&T Park.

4. Wait, there are teams outside Texas? From … cities … outside Texas?

3. Baseball? He’s already fighting impeachment over the lackluster starts by the Cowboys and Longhorns.

2. Sarah Palin told him “Giants” spelled backwards is “Devil.”

1. Not nervous, just trigger-happy.

Funny list...

Flores up 12 on Chet...

This is the year Republicans finally take out Chet Edwards (link). Excerpt follows...

A new independent poll shows Republican Bill Flores up 12 points over U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco. The Hill, a newspaper that covers the Capitol, surveyed likely voters in the Central Texas district by phone between Oct. 19 and 21.
The crosstabs reveal (download them to the right) both candidates' support breaks down strictly along party lines. Edwards attracts 9 percent of Republican voters, while Flores attracts only 3 percent of Democrats. Another detail: The incumbent is more popular among women and the young, but Flores takes the lead among the 35-to-54 and 55-plus age groups.
Fifty-six percent of voters surveyed have a favorable view of Flores, well above his unfavorability rating of 31 percent. The numbers aren't as good for Edwards: 45 percent of voters have a favorable view of the incumbent, compared to the 49 percent who view him unfavorably. Sixty-six percent of the voters polled disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing; 78 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Chet Edwards will lose... that much is clear... the question then becomes does Chet try to make a come back in 2012, does he become a high priced lobbyist, or does he join the Obama administration as some kind of low to mid level cabinet or administrative type of position...

Bench marks for Bill White... how badly will he lose...

Some bench marks to look out for (link). Excerpt follows...

How badly will Bill White lose? Will he crack 40? Probably... Will he get as high as John Sharp? I sincerely doubt it...

46.0 percent. This is the highest percentage won by any Democrat in a statewide race during the past decade. John Sharp (a potential rival in the 2012 Democratic Senate primary) won 46.0 percent of the vote in his 2002 campaign for lieutenant governor. Surpassing this mark would position White in the driver's seat for the Democratic Senate nomination, as well as provide strong support for the case that he would be a formidable rival for whichever Republican wins the party's nomination in 2012.
43.7 percent. This is the percentage won by President Barack Obama in 2008 in Texas. While the overall political context, as well as the composition of the voters participating in the election is distinct in 2008 and 2010, White's 2012 quest for the Senate will be advantaged by the extent to which he exceeds President Obama's vote share.
40.0 percent. This is the percentage (39.96 percent to be more precise) won by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez in 2002. Failing to cross this threshold would be a traumatic blow to White's political future.
Assuming the opinion polls are to be trusted, White is in no danger of falling below Sanchez's 40.0 percent and should, in all likelihood, also eclipse President Obama's 43.7 percent. Besting Sharp's 46.0 percent will be a much more difficult task, but, remains an attainable goal for White.

I think he will probably end up somewhere around where Obama ended up... but below 46% for sure...

The "real" Texas Tribune poll...Rick up 55 to 35 among likely voters or 57 to 33 among voters who vote every election...

The latest Texas Tribune poll didn't screen out likely voters or voters who vote in every election, but if they had, it would have been a slaughter for Bill White (link). Excerpt follows...

Among all respondents in the sample, Perry leads White 50 percent to 40 percent, with just less than 1 percent undecided. Among likely voters, however, Perry leads White 55 percent to 35 percent, with 1 percent undecided. As you might expect from those numbers, those who are least likely to vote are also younger, more racially and ethnically diverse and more Democratic.
Other likely voter screens look even worse for the Democrats. What if we only took those 356 respondents who said they vote in every election? Perry leads White by 24 points (57 percent to 33 percent). The margins of error in these calculations increase as the voter screens reduce the sample sizes.

This could get ugly for Democrats...

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

More nuggets from that Texas Tribune poll showing Rick up 10...


The Texas Tribune poll has some interesting numbers that look good for Rick (link). Excerpt follows...

The economy, unemployment and jobs are the most important issues facing the country, while immigration and border security top the list of the biggest problems facing the state, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.
The fourth and fifth items on the national list are federal spending and the national debt; all told, financial issues accounted for 52 percent of the poll’s responses. By comparison, the next most-cited issues, political corruption and leadership, were selected by only 22 percent of respondents.
On the state list, 40 percent put either immigration or border security at the top. (Only 8 put those issues at the top of the national list.) The economy, unemployment and jobs topped the lists of just 26 percent of respondents.
The way I read it... Texans view the national economy as very very bad... they understand correctly that the Texas economy is doing better, and they see immigration and border security as the main challenge our state faces...

These issues mean that Bill White's "cronyism" angle he took all year has had almost no impact because people don't care about Rick... aka the governor... living in a governors mansion... you know... like every other governor in Texas history and every other governor in America today...

Oh dear he is spending money... what a canard... I am glad they wasted so much money on that line of attack although it was intellectually dishonest...

Rove steps in to save Bill Flores and take down Chet Edwards...

Karl Rove's group is coming in with ads to rescue Bill Flores in Texas 17 (link)....
American Crossroads, the national group with ties to former Bush White House advisers Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie (and $7 million from Houston homebuilder Bob Perry) that's targeting Democrats across the country, released an new ad slamming U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards for his support of President Barack Obama. The spot plays clips of Edwards praising Obama during the 2008 presidential elections, while citing statistics about unemployment and the budget deficit. 

Heated exchange between Patrick Rose and Jason Isaac...



Patrick Rose is a liberal thorn in our side... for some reason that line sticks with me.

I love the part at the end where Patrick Rose describes himself as an Austin style politician... this Jason Isaac guy is so much taller than Patrick Rose... they should have done lots of joint appearances because Isaac got the better of Rose in this one...

Early voting peek...

Numbers on early voting are updated thanks to Jason Embry passing them along (link). Excerpt follows...

Thanks to Democratic pollster Jeff Smith, we have some updated data on who voted in the first week in more than 50 of the state’s counties. Yesterday I had figures for more than 600,000 early-voters through the first four days. The following numbers are for more than 900,000 voters through the first full week of early voting:
17 percent voted in the 2010 Democratic primary
35 percent voted in the 2010 Republican primary
43 percent have at some point voted in a Democratic primary
48 percent have at some point voted in a Republican primary
(There could be crossover in those numbers, because you can vote in a Republican primary in one election and the Democratic primary in the next election.)
20 percent have no history of voting in a primary in their county
Again, it’s important to remember that this is just a glimpse at what’s going on out there — while it covers the state’s major urban and suburban counties, there are areas of the state that aren’t represented here. Many voters are likely waiting to vote on Election Day. And past primary participation is not indicative of current party preference.


Continues to look good for Republicans... but take those numbers with a grain of salt since there are still days and days of early voting left...

Monday, October 25, 2010

Rick beating Bill White by 10 points...


Rick leads by 10 in the latest Texas Tribune poll... he led by 6 in the last Texas Tribune poll (link)...

Republican Gov. Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White by 10 points — 50 percent to 40 percent — in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, which was conducted in the days leading up to early voting. Libertarian Kathie Glass has the support of 8 percent of respondents; Deb Shafto of the Green Party gets 2 percent.
In the last UT/TT poll, conducted in early September, Perry led by 6 points, 39 percent to 33 percent. That poll also found 22 percent undecided; in this poll, undecided voters were pressed to say which candidate they would choose if the election were held today.

Bill White's negative campaigning backfired and now voters view Bill White's campaign as far more negative than Rick's campaign which is a rare split when it comes to Democrats and Republicans around the country and in Texas. Excerpt follows...
Respondents to the poll say White has run a more negative race than Perry has. They're about tied on whether Perry's campaign has been more positive (43 percent) than negative (45 percent). But only 35 percent say White's campaign has been positive, while 51 percent say it's been negative. Many of the commercials that have aired on White’s behalf weren't his own but were run by either the Back to Basics PAC (financed largely by Houston attorney Steve Mostyn) or by the Democratic Governors Association. Voters didn't fall for it, apparently, blaming White for the attacks on Perry.
This thing is basically over... as I have said all along... it will end up being about a 10 point victory for Rick. The DGA has pulled out of Texas. Back to Basics is somewhat silent. I see far more Rick ads than Bill White ads... Bill White just needs to shuffle away with dignity... but it looks like he is going down fighting... and going down flailing... which will ruin his chances in 2012...

Jason Embry adds some other data that is interesting (link). Excerpt follows...

“As the electorate begins to pay more attention, the numbers at the top of the ticket and in the down-ballot races suggest a predictable pattern of partisan alignment, in which the trends of Republican identification we’ve seen in the last few decades are being amplified by a broader national political environment favorable to Republican candidates,” says Jim Henson, a government professor at UT who oversees the UT/TT poll with his colleague Daron Shaw.
• Thanks to Democratic pollster Jeff Smith of Opinion Analysts, we have some good information on who participated in the first few days of early voting.
Some important caveats to get out of the way: Four days of early voting do not an election make. And just because someone voted in a party’s primary does not mean they will support that party’s candidate for governor or any other office.
OK, now that we’ve said that, Smith has numbers on 54 of the state’s 254 counties, including all the big urban and suburban counties. Of the more than 600,000 people who voted early in these counties in the first four days:
50 percent have at some point voted in a Republican primary.
43 percent have at some point voted in a Democratic primary.
11 percent have at some point voted in a Republican and Democratic primary.
18 percent have no history of voting in primaries.
Perhaps most significantly:
38 percent voted in the 2010 Republican primary.
18 percent voted in the 2010 Democratic primary.
Again, don’t draw too many conclusions. While most of the state’s population is represented in this count, the counties that are or are not represented could tilt toward one party or the other. But if you must take something away from these numbers, it’s fair to say that this is, on the whole, better news for Republicans than Democrats. Maybe much better.

It is getting ugly for Obama and his party in Texas... Rick winning is basically a given at this point, but Chet Edwards losing and some other down ballot liberal peeps losing around the state will be the cherry on top of this election... and then redistricting commences for 2012...

Wife of murdered Houston cop supports Rick over Bill White...

This commercial is the nail in Bill White's political coffin... this sanctuary city issue will make Bill White unelectable not just this year but in 2012 when he tries again for the senate (link)...

 


For the smart alecs who try to conflate the Texas policy and the Houston policy, there are clear differences. Texas officers may inquire about immigration status, but they don't have to. It is up to their own discretion... I don't know the exact number, but I have been told maybe as many as a hundred thousand instances in recent years have been referred to the immigration authorities from the Texas DPS troopers and Rangers.

Houston under Bill White was classified as a sanctuary city by the Congressional Research Service as well as the Houston Chronicle... because cops were expressly forbidden from inquiring about immigration status even if they suspected something was up.

The cops asked and pleaded with Bill White but he did not change the rule... also Bill White chose Harold Hurtt who was a well known sanctuary city proponent and who is now in the Obama administration working on immigration issues...

The Houston police endorsed Rick over their former boss... and they lashed out at Bill White... watch this video as well...


Knock 'em out the box Rick... knock 'em out Rick...

This is great...



Rick looks awesome in this... I want to hang out with that guy... what is not to like? The chorus is really the only thing you remember... and it is knock 'em out the box Rick...

He has sexy women around him... cigars... has a cool man cave... he likes the Texas Rangers baseball team...

This music video is a keeper for sure... and probably a net positive for Rick when all is said and done.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Bill White's campaign is too negative...

Bill White is way too negative (link). Excerpt follows...

Ricky Perry is responsible for baldness, cancer and for making a little girl cry because he would not help her get her cat down from a tree!!

I really don’t like Rick Perry. But I am really, really beginning to dislike Bill White. The two men are in a battle to be Texas’ next governor. White, a Democrat, at least has a shot at staying close to Perry and that is a big deal in Texas. No Democrat has won statewide public office since 1994 or so. I think many people including Republicans are getting tired of Rick Perry. At first I thought White had a real chance to beat Perry. I am not so sure anymore. And it’s pretty much of White’s doing.

I bet the guy is running ads in your state even if you are not from Texas. He’s gotten absurd with his ads. I think he’s running one now in Minot, North Dakota. As time has gone on it’s been apparent that Perry has the lead in polls and such. White’s campaign will say and do just about anything to portray Perry in a bad light.

The White campaign just throws stuff out to see if it will stick. When it doesn’t they just toss something else out. He has not been able to catch Perry in any sort of situation that might look bad enough to cause the public not to vote for Perry. As a matter of fact, White has some shady dealings in his past as mayor of Houston and before when he was in Washington.

Bill White has been critical of Perry for not wanting to debate him. Even though I usually like to see debates I think Perry was much too smart for Bill White on that score. White would have twisted and distorted everything Rick Perry had ever done. White would have accused Perry of causing baldness and cancer. So Perry was wise not to debate White.

I don’t know about it all. I am very frustrated with Bill White. I considered voting for the guy but he has lost me with his campaign style. Wait just a minute … yes, he’s at it again. Bill White just accused Rick Perry of letting an entire 18-wheeler load of vanilla Blue Bell ice cream melt. See what I mean!!

Bill White has just been flinging crap against the wall and hoping it would stick. I think he has used up his credibility with the press with regard to those stupid press conferences he keeps having about the latest outrage he has concocted...

I have been around politics long enough to know that if you are just flinging crap this late in the game, you are going down hard... it could get ugly for Bill White in the next two weeks...

GOP turnout looking encouraging in Texas... maybe not everywhere in America though?

Looking bad for Democrats (link). Excerpt follows...

Democrats hoped to puncture the longtime Republican dominance in the Dallas suburbs after Barack Obama's presidential win in 2008.
But a suburban GOP resurgence in polls here and beyond appears to have tilted the balance again, suggesting once more that as suburbia goes, so goes the nation.
Voter anger over the economy, Congress and the Obama administration has benefited GOP candidates. In North Texas, that wave appears to have cemented the GOP's suburban supremacy and all but wiped out any groundwork that Democrats laid in 2008.
In places such as Carrollton and Frisco, Duncanville and Mesquite, Democratic yard signs are few and fundraising has dried up, candidates say.
Democratic primary vote totals statewide this year were one-quarter what they were in 2008 – a sizable drop-off even for a midterm election. At the same time, GOP vote totals, fueled by a competitive primary, were higher in March than in the 2008 presidential primary.
[SNIP]

       Republican Party strategists said all the ingredients exist for a suburban GOP blowout.
"You're going to have fewer Democrats voting, and you're going to have more independents voting Republican," said Bryan Eppstein, a Fort Worth-based GOP consultant. "The disparity in turnout is going to be overwhelming."
[SNIP]

2010 (midterm)
Democratic: 680,548
Republican: 1,484,542
2008 (presidential)

Democratic: 2,874,986
Republican: 1,362,322
2006 (midterm)

Democratic: 508,602
Republican: 655,919
2004 (presidential)

Democratic: 839,231
Republican: 687,615
2002 (midterm)

Democratic: 1,003,388
Republican: 620,463
2000 (presidential)

Democratic: 786,890
Republican: 1,126,757     




I am hearing stories from around Texas and around the country, but I am not sure that anecdotes of Republican leaning polling places attracting more voters than Democrat leaning polling places mean much. I think the actual numbers are what is important...

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Rick breaks 50 yet again... 51 to 42 in latest Rasmussen...

Rasmussen put out another poll showing the race without much movement (link). Excerpt follows...


 Incumbent Republican Rick Perry holds an eight-point lead on Democratic challenger Bill White in the Texas governor’s race with less than two weeks to go until Election Day
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Lone Star State finds Perry with 51% support, while White, a former mayor of Houston, attracts 43% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the contest, and five percent (5%) remain undecided.

Umm.... their graphic sez 51-42, but their write up sez 51-43... which is it? Either way, it is yet another poll showing Rick above 50... during early voting...

Digging further into the crosstabs too...

Rick's favorables... 59 positive, 40 negative, 1 undecided
27% very fav
32% somewhat fav
18% somewhat un
22% very un


Bill White's favorables... 45 positive, 50 negative, 5 undecided

23% very fav
22% somewhat fav
22% somewhat un
28% very un

According to this poll those who are certain of their vote support Rick 56% and Bill White 42%.

Of those certain to vote... slightly different than certain of their vote... of those certain to vote Rick wins 53-38 on the initial impressions, and 54-39 on the leaners.

Among those who have already voted Rick leads Bill White 54-41.


Even more on the multi organization poll showing Rick up by 11...

This poll was conducted jointly by the Farm Bureau which has been hostile to Rick and a couple of other organizations which have been supportive of Rick... so keep that in mind (link). Excerpt follows...

A poll that has accurately predicted the outcome of ever governor's race since 1990 has Gov. Rick Perry leading Democrat Bill White by 11 percentage points in the home stretch of this year's elections.
The survey of 1,200 Texans who cast ballots in either 2006 or 2008 had Perry leading White 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Kathie Glass at 3 percent and Green Party nominee Deb Shafto at 1 percent. The survey found almost 11 percent were undecided or didn't know. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

[SNIP]
The survey found Perry with 68 percent support among those who watch Fox News, while White at 57 percent support from those who never or rarely watch Fox. Those who said they use email often supported Perry by 50 percent to 35 percent, and he lead among Facebook users 48 percent to 38 percent. The men were tied among those who get their news on the Internet.
[SNIP]

The poll was the 21st Annual Texas Interested Citizens Survey done by the Republican-leaning Lighthouse Opinion Polling & Research LLC - which does work for Republican and Democratic legislative candidates. The pollster, Bryan Eppstein, declined comment.
The survey, which was being leaked to reporters in Austin, has Perry leading White by 15 percentage points in the Houston media market and by 12 points in the San Antonio media market. White essentially was tied with Perry in the Dallas area, and lead in the Austin and border media markets. But White trailed in the Fort Worth area as well as West Texas.
Perry led substantially among Anglo voters and White among blacks. The Hispanic vote was more divided, with 53 percent favoring White and 27 percent backing Perry. The Republican formula for statewide victory in Texas has been to capture about a third of the Hispanic vote and combine that with an overwhelming percentage of the Anglo voters to produce a majority.

1. Rick is winning 50% to 35% among frequent email users... something that is hard to measure from the outside... but I hear Rick's peeps have a list of more than a million email addresses, and they send lots of specific targeted messages to types of peeps...

2. Rick is winning by 15 in Houston... umm... how does Bill White have any chance if he can't win in Houston?

3. So we learn that buying Facebook fans to inflate your numbers and then write a report that takes itself way too seriously doesn't mean anything? Rick is still beating Bill White by 10 points among Facebook users... perhaps Rick's strategy is not to collect superficial numbers but has some better tactics that Bill White's peeps are way behind on... if Rick and his peeps are smart they will keep whatever they are doing so well to themselves...

Liberals are bashing this poll saying there were too many Republicans, but I think they are in for some bad news if they think that is not an accurate reflection of the Texas electorate... in fact those with Republican primary voter history are only 36% of the poll... while 32% of those surveyed had Democrat primary voter history...

Props to Republican down ballot candidates...

Republican Jim Landtroop is running against Democrat Joe Heflin and has a very real chance of knocking off the incumbent...



Former Republican state rep Jim Murphy's campaign against Kristi Thibaut is getting interesting. She was an ACORN lobbyist for pete's sake...



Big props to the down ballot state reps and peeps like that for engaging in YouTube and other ways... I can see this becoming more and more important especially in places like Houston where television and radio are just too expensive but internet videos and attack sites can be targeted...

Friday, October 22, 2010

More on Rick's double digit leads in latest polls...

The former state party communications director is now working for PJTV, and he blogged about the latest poll showing Rick up by 11 (link). Excerpt follows...

There has been a dearth of polling on the Texas governor’s race lately, but I have in my hands a poll that was taken October 15-17.  Its data set is on the large side, 1,200 respondents, spread proportionately across all of Texas’ regions and media markets.  It’s a joint poll by the Texas Civil Justice League, the Texas Farm Bureau and the Texas Medical Association, not an internal of either campaign, though these groups do lean to the right and the TMA and the TCJL’s PAC have endorsed Perry (the Farm Bureau did not endorse either candidate).  It has a 2.9% margin of error.  The sample yielded 38% self-identified Republicans and 23% Democrats, which isn’t out of line in this Republican state in this Republican-friendly year. Of those who did not identify with either party, 18% lean GOP, 10% lean Democrat, 11% don’t lean.  That 23% for Democrats indicates some significant erosion in their strength: in the history profile, 32% had voted in previous Democratic primaries.
If things hold up and nothing crazy happens in Houston, then it’s time to say “Goodnight, Bill White.”  Rick Perry will be re-elected to his third full term as governor of the Lone Star State.  The poll shows Gov. Perry with a 48-37 lead over the Democrat, with the Libertarian and Green candidates in the outer darkness and 11% undecided.  Assume that the undecideds break slightly for White since he’s the challenger, and you end up with this November 2 result:
Perry 53, White 43
The 48-37 is about where the numbers have been since Perry opened up his positive “Texas is Open for Business” ad run plus his security themedmedia campaign, indicating that Texans who may have flirted briefly with White have been reminded that Texas is in comparatively strong shape and have therefore come home to Perry. “Don’t fire the coach if the team is winning” seems to be the thinking.  Absent a very large October Surprise, this race is over and for Republicans, it’s time to run up the score in the state House and congressional races.  Early voting totals around the state hint that that’s already happening.  Early voting has shattered records nearly everywhere.

It is not so much that there has been a dearth of polling it is just that the msm and the Nate Silvers of the world seem to be ignoring them...

I expect several new polls in the next several days... and then of course it is all over.

Turnout so far looking good for Republicans... bad for Democrats...

Campos Communications is posting daily vote tallies in Bill White's back yard, and it looks good for Republicans so far (link). Excerpt follows...

Early Voting in Person through three days today in Harris County was at 79,6787 as compared to 126,214 through three days in 2008.
In 2008, Kingwood was 3.9% of the total (678,312 in person) Early Vote for Harris County.  Through yesterday they were 5.1% (of 79,678).
In 2008, Clear Lake was 3.3% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday, they were 5.3%.
In 2008, West Gray was 5.3% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 6.7%.
In 2008, Tracy Gee was 3.1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 3.5%.
In 2008, Acres Home was 3.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 2.3%.
In 2008, Palm Center was 2.3% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 1.9%.
In 2008, Ripley was 1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were .8%.
In 2008, Moody Park was 1.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 1.2%.
In 2008, HCC was 1.5% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were .9%.
In 2008, 126-C was 4.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 5.2%.
In 2008, Ponderosa was 3.1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 2.7%.
Of course, we’re still learning about voting early in person.  At first glance however, it looks like the GOP areas are bit more enthused here in Harris County – at least through the third day of Early Voting in Person.

Paul Burka also commented on this (link)...
It is clear that Republican areas are outperforming 2008 levels. In other words, more Republicans are turning out in a gubernatorial year than turned out in a presidential year. Unless a lot of these Republicans are voting for White, this is a Democratic disaster. 
Yes it is difficult to read much into it, but it is hard not to just feel the energy behind Republican campaigns right now. There will be a lot of Democrats thought to be safe who lose shocking races...

Look at the crowds Rick is building in places like Conroe (link)...

The disparity is not going unnoticed (link). Excerpt follows...

In Harris County, the 2010 numbers are running three times higher than in 2006 and are approaching figures for 2008. Analysts suggested local voters may be getting a head-start because of publicity about the long ballot and about the August fire that destroyed all of the county's voting machines.
Through the first four days, 138,349 local voters cast ballots: 104,420 in person and 33,929 more via mail. According to the Texas secretary of state's office, through the first three days, 316,000 people voted early across Texas, compared with 157,000 at the same point in 2006. In Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis counties, the numbers are up significantly, although they are not as high as the 2008 presidential election.
In Harris County, Republican Party Chairman Jared Woodfill was pleased, pointing out that early voting numbers were up throughout the county, and significantly higher in Kingwood, Katy and other suburbs that are traditional GOP bastions.
"You look at the numbers, they're looking really good for us," he said. "We're thinking the independents are breaking for us as well, based on the polling we've done."
His Democratic Party counterpart, Gerry Birnberg, professed not to be discouraged.
"We're well ahead of where we were in 2006. We're ahead of where I projected we'd be in 2010, " he said, alluding to early-voting totals in districts represented by Democratic officeholders. "It's also true that Republicans are even further ahead, but it's way too early to read anything into the crystal ball." 

Also in Dallas the same story (link). Excerpt follows...

  The hard-fought gubernatorial race pitting longtime Gov. Rick Perry and former Houston Mayor Bill White was the most talked-about contest at polling places.
"We're very pleased with the turnout in locations that tend to attract Republicans voters," said Dallas County Republican chairman Jonathan Neerman. "When you have long lines in traditional Republican enclaves, you've got to be pleased, but it's way too early to know what those numbers mean."
Steve Tillery, executive director of the Dallas County Democratic Party, said the first day of early voting is always one of the heaviest days.
"We'll see if it continues," Tillery said. "Our plan is to turn out our base."     

Bill White can get okay sized crowds here and there, but as I pointed out in a blog I wrote already he is having trouble getting big numbers at his events...

Crowd sizes are a real indication of support in non presidential election years... Rick has people fired up... Bill White is boring people half to death... there is a real enthusiasm gap... Bill White can't seem to really break into the forties... Rick is right around fifty...

A day on the campaign trail with Rick...

Early this morning I wrote a blog about Bill White's lack luster crowds... compare that to the boisterous overflow crowds Rick is getting (link)...
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In 'Vote 2010,' we're again giving you unique access to the man who could be your governor for the next four years. It's a day in the life of Rick Perry.
Even though he's leading in the polls, he's still putting in long days. Eyewitness News followed him from Bryan to Beaumont to Conroe to Grapeland and then finally Dallas.

Perry knows his routine. This is his 20th year of campaigning across a very large state.

"America's best days are in front of it, and I know Texas' best days are still in front of it," Perry told a crowd.

This year, the 10-year incumbent cast himself as an outsider fighting Washington, standing up for Texans.

"I don't think he's a career politician," supporter Barbara Liming said. "I think he's a concerned Texan."

By 10am, Perry had already been up for hours. At his first event, he surprised a Bryan principal with a $25,000 check from a National Education Foundation but wouldn't leave without working the crowd, regardless of whether they were old enough to vote or too young to tie their own shoes.

From there, he headed back on the plane to Beaumont and into an adoring, excited crowd. But it also was the only time we saw a sign of his opponent, Democratic Bill White. The two loud protestors rattled Perry just a bit, but it was a brief distraction, not a long diversion.

Perry did not stray from his message for long, and it was forgotten an hour later in Conroe, where a standing-room only event was so overcrowded, the sheriff almost kept Perry's staff from attending.

Leading in the polls, he seems comfortable.

"I am a pretty faithful guy that this will turn out the way it's supposed to turn out," he said. "At the end of the day, I'm pretty comfortable the good Lord is in control and we'll be fine."

And at an hour when most Texans were heading home, Perry was off to his fifth event of the day. He spoke to thousands of African American women at Bishop TD Jakes Potter's House Church in Dallas, mindful he has just 12 days left.

"God bless you, and through you, may God continue to bless the great state of Texas," Perry told the crowd.

Perry rarely mentions White in his speeches, but he did encourage his supporters to contact friends in other states to garner support for like-minded candidates. He admits the national sway is helping him in this election season, but he has no aspiration to run for president.                              

The Conroe Courier also wrote up Rick's day on the campaign trail (link). Excerpt follows...


Perry wows supporters at Conroe campaign stop



Supporters of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White display campaign signs across the street from McKenzie’s Barbeque Thursday.

By Nancy Flake
Updated: 10.21.10
While he may be in a fairly close political race, Gov. Rick Perry heard nothing but cheers from Montgomery County residents supporting him during an appearance Thursday afternoon.


At least 300 people crowded inside and outside McKenzie’s Barbeque, located at 1501 N. Frazier in Conroe, to hear Perry talk about what’s right in Texas and then to have their picture taken with him.

The only people dissenting from the crowd were a few supporters of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White. They stood across the street from the restaurant waving White campaign signs. Perry and White face off in the Nov. 2 election.

After waiting patiently for Perry’s appearance, the crowd gave a rousing cheer when he walked in the door. They kept cheering as he bashed President Barack Obama.



“People keep asking me, ‘Why do you talk about Washington?’” Perry said. “Washington’s mortgaging our children’s future. Obamacare (the health care reform act) is a great example. ... It will cost us $2.7 billion a year. It’d completely bust us. We’ve got to stand up and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Perry talked of the inspiration he’d received from his father, who told him the federal government is supposed to do three things: Deliver the mail, defend and secure the borders and sustain the military.

Perry praised the military, but said, “Our federal government on the other two is an abject failure. Mr. President, until you get those three things right, don’t be coming down here and telling us how to run this state.”

Texas has created more jobs than any other state, Perry said, and 153 businesses in California have pulled up stakes there since January to relocate in Texas.

“All of this didn’t happen by accident,” he said. “There’s still a land of opportunity in America. It’s called Texas.”

The federal government is failing Texas in the defense of its borders with Mexico, Perry said.

“Our federal government will not send the needed troops, the support ... to help us secure the border,” he said. “We can no longer stand to have our citizens killed. You can secure the border, Mr. President. You just have to admit you’re a failure first.

“Man up and do what’s right.”

After he spoke, Perry then waited and had his picture taken with anyone who wanted to do so. One of those was 11-year-old Travis Ogden, a sixth-grader who created a notebook about Texas.

“I want to get a picture, and I was going to ask him to sign this,” said Ogden, flipping open the notebook’s pages.

Perry did sign a page in the notebook, and also signed a page for a future notebook Travis’ younger sister Krista will create.

Perry’s campaign ads tout the positive business environment he’s maintained in Texas, and Darin McKenzie, owner of the restaurant, didn’t dispute it.

“Today, he’s real good for my business,” he said. “It was a good advertisement that I didn’t have to pay for.”

Sheri Kennedy, of Montgomery, was one of several people wearing Tea Party shirts to the event. She supports Perry.

“Oh, heck yeah,” she said. “Because I like the condition Texas is in right now. Why mess with it – why mess a good thing up?

“I wish he’d run for president.”

Perry spent a few minutes with the media, and when he was asked to respond to White’s allegation that Perry is living in a mansion while many Texans are losing their homes, he said he would “dearly love” to be back in the Governor’s Mansion, which is undergoing massive renovations from a fire.

“We’re pretty much going to live where the Legislature wants us to live,” he said. “He’ll (White) probably just stick in that $2.5 million mansion in Houston he’s living in.”

Perry also said getting out in front of Texans to answer their questions was a better use of his time than meeting with newspaper editorial boards.

The turnout for his Conroe visit is part of the general mood of the state, he said.

“It’s about saying, ‘Governor, we approve you telling Washington to butt out of our business,’” he said.

Quite a contrast between Rick's events and Bill White's events... Bill White is just a lack luster candidate as I said before... he is not generating any kind of traction... he is about to get smoked... absolutely smoked...