Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Rick's book... "Fed Up!" drawing attention... fueling speculation of 2012 run...

Rick is writing a book, and I heard about it seemingly years ago... and if I recall correctly it was originally supposed to come out before the primary battle against Kay to help gin up the base... but now it is coming out right after the November 2 election against Bill White. The timing is causing peeps like GOP 12 to guess there is some greater meaning behind the book (link). Excerpt follows...

In an op-ed touting Rick Perry's strengths as a potential Presidential candidate, Matthew Dowd notes some auspicious timing.
Rick Perry's book, Fed Up: Our Fight to Save America from Washington, comes out November 15 -- just after he's likely to have won a third term as governor and doesn't have to deny larger ambitions as strenuously.
The book includes endorsements from Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, and Bobby Jindal; and a foreword by Newt Gingrich.

Speaking of Dowd... he is making the case that Rick is the guy for 2012 (link). Excerpt follows...

So which Republican is able to speak passionately to this anti-establishment fervor and has credibility as an elected official? Gov. Rick Perry. Here's why:
* His biography is compelling. Perry grew up dirt poor on a ranch in West Texas near a town named Paint Creek. He worked his way through Texas A&M University, a farming and agriculture college. He went on to become a Democratic state legislator, but he switched parties in the late 1980s when Texas began to turn away from the Democrats. Perry was the first Republican since Reconstruction to serve as state agriculture commissioner and as lieutenant governor. He is now Texas's longest-serving governor, and he has balanced the state budget every year. That's a record that will be noticed at a time when budget deficits and federal spending are big issues.
* Perry has tremendous ability to communicate anti-Washington sentiment and to speak to the anger and concerns of folks in cities and small towns who feel forgotten. He showed this capacity in walloping popular GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison when she took him on this year for governor. And not long after the midterms, he has a book coming out, Fed Up, which blasts the feds.
* Texas is a great place to launch a presidential campaign. The state has a huge trove of delegates, contributors, and voters; plus, statewide candidates are used to operating in 19 different media markets. It is no accident that in every open Republican nomination for president in the past 40 years, a Texan has run for president. And although some will say that Bush's legacy has turned the Texas's governor's job into a liability, Republican primary voters aren't likely to see it that way. Many of them still adore the former president.
* Having no national organization or large infrastructure at this point is a genuine asset for Perry. In today's Internet environment, lean campaigns will be the most successful. Organizations that foster speedy decisions and dialogue with voters will be king.
Bottom line: I have no idea if Perry wants to run for president or will run for president, but he has a real shot of grabbing the Republican nomination in today's political environment. His first order of business, however, needs to be winning his re-election battle in Texas on November 2.

I don't know what to think of all of this... yes it does look like releasing a book after a gubernatorial election means someone is thinking of higher ambition... yes Rick does go on Fox News more in the past year or two than he ever did before... yes Rick talks a lot about Obama and national issues... yes he has a large fundraising base he could launch from in Texas... yes he has all the experience of traveling and having 20 or 30 different media markets... but I still don't think he is actually preparing to run in 2012...

  • Rick has no national organization, no national PAC, and no presence in Iowa...


  • Rick has repeatedly said he is not running in 2012... adamantly and convincingly...


  • Rick's peeps I talk to seem very genuine when they say he is not running in 2012... they don't smirk or giggle to themselves like they know something the rest of us don't...


  • Rick saw the whole Bush in DC experience and probably didn't like what he saw... Bush was a pretty good and effective governor with a good life and things going his way in Texas but seemed overwhelmed, ineffective, and misunderstood in Washington... especially in his second term... the Texas baggage would be hard for anyone from Texas to overcome over the next decade or so... so that just makes the task all that much more daunting... Rick has faced a lot of tough elections, but facing the longest of odds due to the Texas stigma could dissuade him from making a go at it.


  • Rick says and does things that may play great in Texas, but would be completely misunderstood by midwesterners in Iowa getting their news filtered to them from liberals with an agenda from New York...


  • Rick has a bunch of friends and not such good friends in politics who may be running, and he could help be more of a king maker than the actual king... being king maker sometimes is more satisfying for someone like Rick...


  • As Rick recently explained, when you have been governor for 10 years you piss some powerful peeps off...  you piss off entire groups of people... Rick has a lot of friends, but he also has more enemies than someone like Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels who have both sort of skirted under the radar for the most part as unknowns...

In terms of resume and experience and qualifications... plus telegenic looks... plus the ability to give a fiery speech... plus the proven ability to raise money and spend it wisely against better funded opponents... plus how he has been vetted and picked apart personally and professionally over and over by unscrupulous and well funded opponents, plus one of the best teams in the business... not to mention the whole outsider from Washington thing... those all make Rick an attractive 2012 candidate... and after he balances the budget in 7 or 8 months he will look like a fiscal savior... all of that plays strongly for Rick.

Still... a lot of things on paper played in Colin Powell's favor for example... and he never ran... sometimes people just like their lives and don't want to subject themselves to what the president deals with...

You almost wonder if Obama would go back to being Mr. Popular senator... if he knew how awful being president was going to be...

Obama inherited problems. Whichever Republican wins in 2012 will inherit worse problems... problems that will take more than a couple of years to conquer... it may take decades for America to fix the problems Obama has gotten us into... and I think that just might be the jist of Rick's book... to build more of a lasting movement than a one off shot at the White House...

1 comment:

  1. RickvsKay, so in other words, Perry is actually seeking a 4th term in 2014, which he hasn't ruled out yet, which would give him a record-breaking 18 years in office.

    ReplyDelete

Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.