Kay's poll numbers are tanking... I know why....

Paul Burka this evening blogged two sets of poll numbers showing Rick with truly enormous leads in House districts (link). Excerpt follows...

I received this information about polls that were taken in two House districts, HD 3 (Homer) and HD 47 (Bolton). The first poll is from HD 3. The pollster was Chris Wilson. Fair warning: Both polls were sent to me by a source close to the Perry campaign:

Perry 47
KBH 26
Medina 13
Undecided 14

In HD 47 (Mike Baselice poll):

Perry 45
KBH 26
Medina 19
Undecided 9

The obvious thing that jumps out is Medina’s number, in Travis County yet. Obviously she is taking more votes from Hutchison than from Perry.

Rick is getting very close to that magic 50% threshold to avoid a runoff... I think the more a runoff is the discussed the more that Medina's peeps may end up not voting for her (unless she passes Kay in a public poll in which case she will have a real surge)... people don't want a runoff... they want it decided... they will vote strategically to avoid that...

In the subject line of this blog I promised that I knew why Kay is tanking in the polls... here it is...

I missed it but a friend told me about Bill O'Reilly tonight... he had Frank Luntz on who said the thing people reacted to the most negatively during Obama's State of the Union was when he mentioned the bailout and how it was a necessary thing even though people didn't like it... the dials on his focus groups basically told Obama that he was full of it... this is an issue that crosses party lines... independent lines... people are angry like a woman scorned on this issue... Nobody wants to hear that the bailout worked. Nobody wants to hear that Washington politicians were smarter than the rest of us... nobody wants to hear that the bailout was really the right thing to do. Nobody...

Kay is suffering from the same thing. Rick's ad about her bailout vote is destroying Kay. Absolutely destroying her. The footage of her at that fund raiser saying she would not give Ronald Reagan a blank check for 700 billion dollars... then the C-SPAN footage of her standing up and voting for the 700 billion dollar bailout... it is a devastating ad that has ruined Kay. I don't think she has any chance of recovering from this total annihilation. She can only hope to take Rick down with her at this point...

Rick still needs a final surge of his own... and he can get it if he can focus his ads on convincing people that Texas is the best in America and that he deserves some credit for that he may easily rise above 50%... and if his Amway voter thing his peeps are shelling out so much dough on actually works out then he will get closer to 55% or more...