Monday, January 18, 2010

New poll shows Rick up by 10 over Kay... Medina tops double digits...

Fox News DFW is reporting on a new Rasmussen poll showing Rick at 43, Kay at 33, and Debra at 12 (link). Excerpt follows...

DALLAS - Rick Perry still holds a double-digit lead over Kay Bailey Hutchison on the Republican side of the race for Texas Governor, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll in conjunction with the FOX Television Stations Group.

There's also good news in the poll for Debra Medina, the third major GOP candidate for Governor, who muscled her way into last Thursday's debate.

The poll of 831 likely Republican voters showed Perry with 43 percent, Hutchison with 33 percent, and Medina at 12 percent.

Compared to the poll taken by Rasmussen Reports back in November, Medina is up 8 percentage points, while Perry is down 3 points, and Hutchison lost two. The number of undecided voters went down to 11 percent from 14 percent in November 2009.

Poll results are especially valuable to Medina as she tries to justify a place in the second GOP debate, to be held January 29th. Belo Corp., which will host the debate, lists a 15 percent poll threshold as one of its criteria for whether or not to exclude a candidate from the debate.

The Houston Chronicle also has a copy of the poll results (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry continues to lead with 43 percent support and Hutchison was at 33 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In the November poll, Perry led 46 percent to 35 percent.

Perry was viewed favorably by 72 percent of those surveyed, and Hutchison was at 73 percent personal approval. Medina was rated favorably by 43 percent of those surveyed, and 28 percent said they did not know enough about her to have an opinion.

If these numbers are valid... it shows that Kay's camp's insistence on Medina being in the debates may hurt them almost as much as it hurts Rick... which makes sense if you think about the ABP vote... "anybody but Perry"... it will go to Medina because Kay is considered such an unpalatable Republican to those peeps who also hate Rick.

My take on Medina is that she has almost no money, and I can't see voters choosing her in a month or more when she has faded from memory and Rick and Kay are the only ones on television and radio with commercials... she may have a chance if she is let into the next debate...

If I were Medina I would also be worried about some of her supporters who are being a little too aggressive and strident on the web and at rallies... If I were a Medina supporter I would be worried about Debra Medina going on the Alex Jones show to diss free trade and lend credence to off the wall conspiracy theories about one world government and chem trails (link)...

To her credit Medina avoided those issues during the first debate... she knows when to talk to the conspiracy theorists and when to play it mainstream... smart lady...

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.