Thursday, January 7, 2010

How is the money race going to look?

Late in 2009 the liberal Burnt Orange Report posted a blog about how Kay's campaign woes might be hurting her fund raising... but based on her ad buys so far she does not seem to be hurting for money. Reports will come out on January 15 showing how much money each candidate raised.. and we will know for sure (link). Excerpt follows...

The Texas Tribune was not the first media organization in Texas to do podcasts about Texas politics -- but often times, I find myself enjoying their conversations the most. For one, it is an excellent window into the thinking behind the conventional wisdom and media narrative that shapes the stories we read. Additionally, the Tribune specifically hosts these podcasts to sound like the conversations you would have in a bar, talking politics and thinking through campaigns.

This week, the first major topic of conversation was about Kay Bailey Hutchison and the Republican primary between her and Rick Perry. Their conversation -- which you can listen to in full here -- covers a lot, but I'm going to transcribe and focus on a 2-3 minute segment (starting around the 3:10 mark, if you want to hear it yourself) that raises three interesting questions/comments about the narrative of the race:

  1. Hutchison is so far behind, we really shouldn't call this race a "clash of the titans"

  2. Because Hutchison is so far behind, we could see Perry post larger numbers in mid-January than her, which would blunt the late surge her campaign keeps telling everyone is coming

  3. Hutchison supporters could very well be drawn to Bill White once she loses the primary

Every day, Rick Perry vs. Bill White beceoms less of a possibility and more of an inevitiability.

Phillip Martin blogged the transcript of the podcast, and basically none of the Texas Tribune people think Kay has a prayer...

Evan Smith for example said... She is behind. She is behind in every measure, and if there is a poll that the Hutchison campaign has that they are sitting on that shows her competitive, please produce it immediately.

What is weird about the podcast format for Texas Tribune is that I doubt many people have seen the podcasts they do... they should probably try to do something else with them in written format so people can read them...

I also think if Medina has not raised a substantial amount from a substantial number of people she will possibly fade off the media radar screen... only serious candidates should really get serious coverage is their thinking...

The media I think are salivating over the prospect of a Rick versus Bill White race... I think a lot of them are probably supporting Bill White and hoping he is the savior... and mostly they just want to move on because the Rick vs. Kay race has grown somewhat stale... that was so 2009... the only thing keeping it fresh is new polling and new television ads... and next week new fund raising totals...

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.