Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Rick and Kay both lead Bill White by double digits...

One of Kay's arguments... and strangely enough Debra Medina's arguments... against Rick is that he can't win against Bill White and that she would be a stronger general election candidate...

That may be true to an extent in Kay's case, is crazy talk in Debra Medina's case, but Rick and Kay both cream Bill White in a general election match up even in the midst of all the negative advertising going back and forth between the candidates...

Neither Rick nor Kay can be considered weak in the general election. The primary vote for the vast majority of peeps will be based on Rick and Kay... not Rick vs. Bill White versus Kay vs. Bill White....

Rasmussen has the latest real polling numbers (link). Excerpt follows...

Texas Democrats cheered the news when Houston’s popular ex-mayor Bill White joined the race for governor, but in the first Rasmussen Reports general election survey in the state this year, he trails his two chief Republican opponents by double-digit margins.

Incumbent GOP Governor Rick Perry leads White 50% to 40% among likely Texas voters. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, given that match-up, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who runs second to Perry among GOP Primary voters, runs better against White than the incumbent. Hutchison leads the Democrat by 15 points, 52% to 37%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and eight percent (8%) aren’t sure whom they’ll vote for.

Perry holds a 10-point lead over Hutchison among likely GOP Primary voters, 43% to 33%. Tea party activist Debra Medina now earns 12% of the Republican vote, up from four percent (4%) in November.

Her improved showing in the latest Rasmussen Reports polling prompted the sponsors of a January 29 GOP gubernatorial debate to invite Medina to participate. The Texas Republican Primary is on March 2.

But Medina loses to White in a one-on-one general election match-up. The Democrat posts a six-point lead over Medina, 44% to 38%. Five percent (5%) opt for another candidate, and 13% are undecided.

Like other Democrats around the country, White appears to be suffering from his party’s championing of the unpopular national health care plan. In Texas, 39% favor the plan, while 57% oppose it, numbers comparable to national findings. The passion as is generally the case is on the side of the opponents, too: 50% of Texas voters Strongly Oppose the plan versus 20% who Strongly Favor it.

The disproportionate split between those who feel strongly about the issue benefits the top two Republicans. Both Perry and Hutchison carry roughly 80% of the vote of the larger group that strongly opposes the health care plan, while White gets similar support from those who strongly favor it. Medina doesn’t benefit as much, in part because of the large number of voters who remain undecided about her.

Perry carries male voters by 26 points against White but trails by five among women. Hutchison carries both groups against the former mayor by double digits. Medina breaks even among male voters but loses women to White by 11.

Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the Republican in all three match-ups but like Hutchison best.

Most voters in the state (52%) still say Hutchison should remain in the Senate while running for governor, but that’s down five points from November. Twenty-seven percent (27%) disagree and say she should not stay in the Senate, and 21% are not sure.

Nineteen percent (19%) of Texas voters have a very favorable opinion of Perry, while 21% view the current governor very unfavorably. Hutchison is seen very favorably by 18% and very unfavorably by eight percent (8%). For Medina, very favorables total 10% and very unfavorables 12%.

Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters have a very favorable view of White, but 17% regard him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Nine percent (9%) of Texas voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, but 42% say it’s poor. Thirty-four percent (34%) think the economy is getting better, while 35% say it’s getting worse. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe it is staying the same.

The way the national mood is going it is hard to imagine Texans voting for Bill White when they see commercials on television about how he supports all the liberal ideas of the day like cap and trade, nationalized health care, and other Obama proposals...

I also think that right now Bill White has a gender gap over Rick, but I think a lot of that has to do with his rather confrontational battle with two women right now. When it is two men duking it out and Rick is actively softening his image from the current primary tack of being Mr. Tough Guy Conservative I think he will improve among Texas women...

He could also look into airing throw back ads with him in chaps grabbing hay and riding horses while wearing denim... or pull a Mitt Romney and leak some pictures of himself with his shirt off about to go swimming... assuming he is not too old looking under there... maybe they can doctor the pictures up or use a picture from 10 or 20 years ago... I hate to stereotype but women love that stuff... they eat it up...

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.